Buccaneers vs. Falcons Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions for Today

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-10-03 18:09:36

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The NFL offers an NFC South showdown on Thursday Night as the Buccaneers meet the Falcons in Atlanta. Aside from an upset loss to the Denver Broncos, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look the part of a playoff contender in 2024. The new-look Falcons have started slow but have a couple of wins to their ledger. Divisional games always bring more stakes. Who is going to claim victory on Thursday night?

Check out our Same Game Parlay Guide before we break down tonight’s game and build a same game parlay for Thursday Night Football.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Same Game Parlay Preview

DraftKings Sportsbook posts the Falcons as two-point home favorites on Thursday night. The implied game total is a measly 43.5 points with a pinch of juice on the over at the time of this writing. The two points tell a story. On a neutral field, oddsmakers believe the Buccaneers are a better football team.

ScoresAndOdds reports the same. More than 85% of the money collected on the betting spread sides with Tampa Bay. Even the betting tickets agree, as 74% of slips are on Tampa Bay. As such, the betting spread moved a full point throughout the week. The game total has moved a shade down despite the majority of tickets and bets being placed on the over.

The Falcons injury report was crowded earlier in the week with Bijan Robinson and Ray-Ray McCloud nursing injuries. Both playmakers will lace them up on Thursday night. RT Kaleb McGary was also taken off the injury report and will play for the Falcons. Linebacker Troy Anderson was ruled out. The Falcons rank in the top 10 in QB sacked percentage after starting in a dismal way versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. McGary is a welcome start.

The Buccaneers are not as lucky in Week 5. The Bucs ruled out Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan as well as T Luke Goedeke with a concussion. Antoine Winfield will also miss Thursday night. On offense, expect a heavy dose of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with a sprinkle of freshly-signed Sterling Shepard.

All reports point to heavier involvement for Bucky Irving as he continues to wow the coaching staff with his playmaking ability. The 2.8 yards per carry rushing average for Rachaad White doesn’t hurt Irving’s prospects, either. While Irving should see more work, don’t expect to see White completely phased out of the offense.

Speaking of involvement in an offense, Bijan Robinson is everything we wanted in 2023… in 2024. While he didn’t shine against the Saints, Robinson has seen nearly 20 opportunities in all of the Falcons’ contests thus far. While the Buccaneers are stout against the run, they are leaky against running backs with hands in 2024. The Bucs allowed the second-most receptions to the running back position. Normally offered 4-5 targets per game, Robinson could see a couple of extra looks if the Tampa Bay defense relents on Thursday night.

As for the Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield has truly blossomed as the starter for the Tampa Bay offense. Mayfield ranks top five in QB passer rating and the Buccaneers rank 11th in scoring early in the season. For a team built to play defense, the Buccaneers offense routinely scores points in bunches — hanging 33 last weekend at a quick pace.

Divisional rivalries tend to be close, but both offenses possess enough firepower to get going in a dome. Let’s cull out some plays for tonight’s Thursday Night Football same game parlay.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Buccaneer vs. Falcons

Over 43.5 Points
Chris Godwin Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
Sterling Shepard Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

Over 43.5 Points

I agree with the public and the sharps. In a dome, I think we are going to see a bunch of scoring on Thursday night. The Buccaneers have been scoring and giving up points at a high clip. The Atlanta offense has enough playmakers to return the favor. This has all the makings of a shootout.

The Buccaneers are giving up nearly 20 points per game and scoring far more. The Atlanta defense has proven very effective against the running game, and the Bucs prefer to pass. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are going to be targeted often in this game.

Chris Godwin Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Many people are going to be all over Bucky Irving on Thursday night. After Irving saw double-digit carries and a touchdown in Week 4, I don’t blame them. That said, the passing options for Baker Mayfield remain the primary focal points of this offense.

Godwin has not seen less than 8 targets this season. We shouldn’t expect anything less this evening without Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan. The Falcons defense has played well of late but I am not overly concerned about defensive ability when betting on volume.

Godwin will get his looks and should be able to exceed this total regardless of the game script.

Sterling Shepard Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

Finally, we will take a crack on Sterling Shepard with the third and fourth options for Tampa Bay missing. Shepard saw his first game action last weekend and was picked up off the practice squad for tonight’s game.

Last weekend, Shepard saw 5 targets versus the Eagles. He converted three of them for 51 receiving yards. Without Palmer and McMillan, Shepard might be the Tampa Bay option we count on to go over on his prop. I am bullish on Bucky Irving, but I am going to bet on volume.