Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice for Thursday Night Football (Buccaneers vs. Falcons)
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with an NFC South showdown between the Bucs and Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Tampa Bay comes into the game in 1st place in the division with a 3-1 record, with their only loss coming to Denver in Week 3. The Falcons come into Week 5 with a 2-2 record, having alternated wins and losses each week but coming off a division win against the Saints in Week 4. The Falcons are 1.5-point favorites, and the game has a total set at 44 points. These teams are middle of the pack in both offense and defense, with Tampa Bay ranking 16th in yards per game on offense and Atlanta ranking 19th, while the Bucs rank 18th in yards allowed per game and the Falcons rank 19th.
The biggest injury news leading into the game is that Tampa Bay will be without their WR3 and WR4, with both Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer expected to miss the game. That could elevate Sterling Shepard back into fantasy relevance, while undrafted rookie Kameron Johnson could get on the field as well. Bijan Robinson also had hamstring issues this week and was listed as questionable, but he is expected to play. With the way hamstrings have gone this season in the NFL, you’ll want to be sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL starting lineups page as inactives hit for the latest details in case there are any surprises. Also, don’t forget to use our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. Whether you’re a hand-builder or an MME player, it’s the perfect tool to utilize.
Let’s sort through the slate and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons NFL DFS Lineup Advice
Primetime Game History
The Falcons have already played a pair of primetime games this season. In Week 3, they played the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, losing 22-17 at home. Bijan Robinson came in as the 3rd highest owned CPT (14%) in the DraftKings large-field contest, while Kyle Pitts (6.4%) was the only other Falcon with more than 5% CPT ownership. The winning lineup featured Chiefs WR Rashee Rice in the CPT spot, with Kirk Cousins and Drake London the only Falcons in the FLEX positions.
Atlanta also played a primetime game in Week 2 on Monday night, beating the Eagles 22-21 on a 4th-quarter TD by London. Bijan was again the highest-owned Falcon in the CPT spot (12.3%), while London (6.7%) was the only other Falcon with more than 5% CPT ownership. The winning lineup in the DraftKings large-field contest that night featured Jalen Hurts in the CPT spot, with London and Darnell Mooney the only Falcons in the FLEX.
Tampa Bay last played a “primetime” game back in January in the Divisional Round of the playoffs against the Lions. Mike Evans (11.4%), Baker Mayfield (8.9%), and Chris Godwin (7.9%) ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, respectively, in CPT ownership, but it was another Buc, Cade Otton (2.8%), who was in the winning lineup of the DraftKings large-field contest in the CPT spot. Evans, Mayfield, and running back Rachaad White appeared in the FLEX spots of the winning lineup.
Looking at these past Showdown contests, we again see some consistent themes. Pass catchers often end up in the CPT spot ahead of passing-oriented QBs, and the pass-catching CPTs are usually paired with their QB in a FLEX spot. We also see lineups that contain at least one low-owned player. Often, we don’t want to avoid chalk entirely, but it can be critical to find at least one lower-owned — but still viable — option, even if it is at the CPT spot.
How I Plan to Beat the Field
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