Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team Picks & Predictions
The first day of the NFL playoffs will conclude with none other than Mr. Playoff himself. Tom Brady leads the league in playoff wins and appearances, all of which have come with the New England Patriots up to this point. That changes Saturday night when Brady makes his playoff debut with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Wild Card game against Alex Smith and the Washington Football Team.
Unfortunately for Brady, he may be playing without one of his favorite receivers. Making the Bucs 8.5-point road favorites, oddsmakers still like Brady’s matchup against the champions of a historically bad division.
Here’s a betting preview with NFL picks and predictions for Saturday’s Wild Card game between the Buccaneers and Washington Football team.
[Bet Washington +10 at BetMGM]
Tampa Bay vs. Washington Betting Odds
Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5
Opening Total: O/U 46.5
Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
How to Watch: NBC
Online sportsbooks opened the Bucs as -7.5-point favorites late Sunday night but the line has since stretched as much to as -9 at BetMGM. On Thursday morning, the Bucs were -8 at BetMGM and the Football team +8.5 at PointsBet. Now that Alex Smith has been officially ruled active on Saturday, oddsmakers stretched the spread to Buccaneers -10.
As always, use our NFL odds comparison tool to find the best sportsbook for your betting picks.
Weather
It’ll be a cold one in the nation’s capital, but there are no storms or heavy winds in the forecast. The cold shouldn’t bother Brady.
Stay on top of the weather for all six Wild Card games with Kevin Roth’s NFL weather report, which he’ll be updating between now and kickoff.
Injuries
As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the Bucs are in danger of missing a key piece to the offense after wide receiver exited Week 17 with a knee injury. Evans’ status appeared to be trending in the wrong direction until Thursday morning when Greg Auman of The Athletic reported that Evans was working at practice for the first time all week.
Mike Evans is working at practice today, testing his injured knee. Looks comfortable in the window open to media, keeping Saturday in play.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) January 7, 2021
Head coach Bruce Arians said “Evans will be a game-time decision.”
In other injury news, Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis is questionable and linebacker Devin White is doubtful. Additionally, Jason Pierre-Paul has been listed as a non-participant in practice in each of the last two days. For the Washington Football Team, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis is questionable, while Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, and Terry McLaurin have been limited at practice. Though limited, there is no concern that Gibson or McLaurin will miss Saturday’s Wild Card game, but Washington did designate Smith as questionable Thursday afternoon.
Saturday Update: Alex Smith is inactive Saturday night.
Buccaneers vs. Washington Picks & Predictions
“I want Tom Brady are bold words for a rookie. But that’s exactly what presumptive Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young said following Washington’s division-clinching win Sunday night.
Young has been a pivotal piece for the Washington Football Team’s success on defense this season. The first-round draft pick has helped make Washington the No. 3-ranked Defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Washington has been best at impeding opposing quarterbacks (No. 2 DVOA against the pass), while occasionally showing vulnerability against the run (No. 11 DVOA against the run).
Meanwhile, the Bucs will travel to DC with the No. 3-ranked Offensive DVOA. The Bucs passing game has clicked in recent weeks, but they’ve also put forth a formidable running game behind Ronald Jones. If Evans is out and Washington’s defensive line can get to Brady, don’t be surprised if the Bucs turn to Jones, who has four games of 100+ rushing yards, including a 192-yard performance against the Panthers in Week 10.
Washington’s offense play hasn’t matched their superb defense, hence their sub-.500 record. Their running game is above the league’s median this season, but the passing game has been the league’s worst. Combined, Washington’s offensive DVOA ranks dead last in the NFL.
Of course, Washington did play the nine games without quarterback Alex Smith, and five of their seven wins came when the veteran was at the helm…so maybe we can give their poor offensive numbers a pass? Only if Smith is active. If he’s out, it’ll be Taylor Heinicke who gets the start.
Heinicke got significant playing time in Week 16, throwing for 137 yards and a touchdown on 12-of-19 completions against the Panthers.
The Bucs aren’t the Panthers.
Not only would Heinicke likely struggle to keep up with a Bucs offense that has scored 40+ points in back-to-back weeks leading up to the playoffs, but Heinicke would also face a fierce Tampa Bay defense that boasts an adjusted sack rate of 7.9%, good for 6th in the NFL.
As someone who bet on the Washington Football Team (+8.5) on Monday, I’m not getting the best number here.
Ultimately I’m hoping Washington’s defense shows up and puts adequate pressure on Brady to keep this close. Brady is attempting a deep pass on 14.4% of his attempt this season, the highest mark in the league. Washington’s front seven could take advantage of this if Arians isn’t willing to change his game plan.
[Bet Washington +10 at BetMGM]
Image Credit: Imagn