Bucks vs. Hawks Game 4 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-06-29 17:53:01

Hawks vs. Bucks Odds

The Atlanta Hawks took it to the Milwaukee Bucks for the majority of Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. But then Milwaukee flipped the script late, mounting an absurd fourth quarter run fueled by veteran All-Stars Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks went from trailing by 13 points to winning 113-102, more than likely provoking some moans and groans from Hawks’ spread bettors. Now, Atlanta finds itself +6 at home in Game 4, its chances at the NBA Finals all but written off by oddsmakers at online sportsbooks.

Middleton Delivers for Bucks

Middleton, who had struggled to find consistency with his jumper throughout the postseason, was wet as Niagara Falls on Sunday. The two-time All-Star kicked it into overdrive in the second half, erupting for a playoff career-high 38 points to go with 11 rebounds and seven assists. Middleton scored ten points during Milwaukee’s 15-3 run, and he ended up outscoring the Hawks by himself in the fourth quarter—Khash Khris: 20, ATL: 17.

Giannis exploded in the second half, too. After a five-point opening frame, the two-time MVP finished with 33 points, 11 boards, and four dimes. He added two steals and a block, and even hit one of his two three-point attempts. Middleton and Antetokounmpo combined to shoot 28-of-47 from the field (59.6%) and 7-of-14 from long range (50%). They both turned the ball over just four times, not so bad for high-usage stars in enemy territory.

Milwaukee’s supporting cast played well, too. Jrue Holiday may not have shot well, but he dished out a team-high 12 assists and played clutch late-game D on Hawks superstar Trae Young. Brook Lopez battled on the interior offensively, chipping in 4-of-6 shots. P.J. Tucker grabbed eight boards, while playing his textbook tough perimeter defense. Pat Connaughton registered a +/- of +25, making a big impact every time he checked in. And Bobby Portis, look at you—the veteran journeyman went 7-of-12 for 15 points and four grown-man rebounds. This team didn’t look like conference champions Sunday—they looked like world champions.

Trae Young Injury Puts Hawks in Jeopardy

On the other side, Young played another superb game, and his 35 points almost got his squad the 2-1 series lead. But Atlanta fizzled out in the home stretch, breaking down defensively and losing gusto offensively. Making matters worse, Young stepped back onto a referee’s foot while trying to create separation in the fourth quarter, and the 24-year old All-Star was never quite the same. MRI results are pending, but any baller who has dealt with even a sore ankle knows this is bad news, even if the scan results look fine.

I’m going to be frank here (wait, I’m Sloan, not Frank): I think this series ended when the final buzzer rang at the end of Game 3. The Hawks played awesome basketball for three quarters of the game, only for Milwaukee to outscore them 30-17 in the final frame. It’s like Milwaukee’s studs had a light-bulb moment, and said to themselves “wait, what are we doing… we should be crushing these fools.”

Don’t get it twisted—the Hawks deserve all the props they will be showered with once their playoff run is over. The future is very bright for pro hoops in Georgia, and Nate McMillan should be extended ASAP. But Milwaukee has a better and more experienced team top to bottom, they have crippling momentum on their side, and they have two All-Stars who are borderline-unguardable right now. Toss a Trae Young ankle issue into the mix, and for me it’s game, set, playoff match.

This was never an optimal series for Atlanta. The Bucks have owned the Hawks for a while now, going 14-3 in their last 17 meetings. No Hawk can stop the Greek Freak when he’s on a downhill pace, and clearly nobody can slow down Middleton when he reaches NBA 2k ‘fire mode.’

Bucks vs. Hawks Game 4 Picks

Long story short, I’m all-in on Milwaukee’s -240 moneyline. But I’m somehow still intrigued by the ‘dogs against the spread. Call me cuckoo, or just a converted Trae fan, but I still like the idea of backing the Hawks against the ropes at home if we can get the spread up to +7. We have already seen Atlanta steal Game 1 of this series on the road, and it did the same in its first two playoff rounds. And like we said, the Hawks led for three quarters of Game 3—do we really expect them to get boat-raced in Game 4? I don’t.

Atlanta’s home record ATS this season is 26-16, fourth-best in the NBA. The Hawks are a resilient bunch. I have no doubt they will show up with their heads held high, and at least cover the spread on Tuesday. I just don’t think they will win the game straight up, or for that matter, win another game this postseason. Moneyline bettors, it seems it’s time for the NBA to once again ‘fear the deer.’ But spread bettors, don’t count on Young reading or adhering to that memo.

• Game 4 Prediction: Bucks 120-115
• Pick: Bucks -240 ML
• ATS: Hawks +7

Schmitto’s Pick: I’m inclined to agree with Sloan about who will win this, but this moneyline has already stretched too much for my liking. Where I disagree with Sloan is on the spread. The Bucks have covered both of their last two games, one of which was an absolute blowout. It’s true that the Game 3 was much closer before Young exited, but there’s no certainty that Young can play to the level he did through those first three quarters two nights ago. If he’s truly hobbled as a result of his ankle injury, he’s going to have a difficult time doing what he does best. That’s not only the reason why I like betting on the Bucks -7 ATS, but I also like the Under when it comes to Young’s player props, such as his projected points at sportsbooks. Make sure to read my full take on Bucks-Hawks player props.

• ATS: Bucks -7

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