CFB Grind Down - Week 4 Early Slate Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-25 19:42:30

Massachusetts Minutemen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – O/U 59

UMASS

This is FD-only game and isn’t a great spot for UMASS, as they are almost 30-point underdogs and have a team total of just 15 points. Tajae Sharpe is a big time player, and has put up 11 receptions in each of his past two games. However, he won’t come cheap, and I’d much prefer Jakeem Grant over him as they carry similar price points. At TE, Rodney Mills flashed big time upside in his last game as he had a 100 receiving yards and two TDs. This is a tough matchup, though, and Higbee is the clear, top-end option at TE, so Mills is a GPP-only pivot.

UPDATE – Mills was apparently in a walking boot earlier this week and is questionable for this one so proceed with caution.

Notre Dame

Desone Kizer was solid in his debut, but played more of the game manager role, so he’s not a guy I’m looking to. Their two workhorses here are their RB, C. J. Prosise, and their star WR, William Fuller. Prosise is coming off of a monster game that saw him run for almost 200 yards as well as three TDs against Georgia Tech, and this UMASS team is 106th in rushing yards allowed per game. This is a prime matchup and the only holdup is that he is priced right there with Leonard Fournette. In that mid-$8,000 range on FD, I’ll give the edge to Fournette, followed by Aaron Green, but Prosise is a guy that is in play for GPPs at what should be low ownership.

It really doesn’t matter what QB Notre Dame has under center, William Fuller is going to produce big numbers. He did it last year with Everett Golson and then this year with both Malik Zaire and Kizer. He’s one of the very best in a CFB and is an elite option on a weekly basis. This week I have him more as a secondary GPP option, as the blowout factor worries me a little bit, and it’s really tough to get off that Texas Tech/ TCU passing game. Outside of the potential blowout, as well as my focus on the higher scoring games, the other concern I have for Notre Dame is their looming matchup with Clemson next weekend. Notre Dame has already been destroyed by injuries and the Clemson game is enormous. It doesn’t matter whether they cover the spread here as long as they beat Clemson, so if they get up early I wouldn’t be surprised if they limited some of their starter’s touches.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – O/U 67

Miami Ohio

This is the other FD-only game in the early slate. I was hoping to find some value with the Redhawks as they face a very weak defense in Western Kentucky. However, they just don’t have any go-to options. They scored 33 points last weekend against Cincinnati, but played three QBs, and no RB topped 13 carries. Their passing game is just as big of a mess as their leading WR has nine receptions. There’s just no safe target here for me so this is a stay away.

Western Kentucky

Brandon Doughty is always worth a look and he’s back on track with two straight 400-yard passing games. However, he’s very expensive and I prefer Boykin, Mahomes, Russell, and Johnson over him this week. It’s weird to say, but given that this is a FD-only game, the premiere play here is their TE Tyler Higbee. He’s a guy I’d plug into every cash lineup as well 90% of GPP lineups, as he’s far and away the top TE on the board. He’s averaging almost 100 receiving yards per game at a position where we’re typically just happy to grab 25 yards and a TD.

Outside of Higbee, Jared Dangerfield was their leading WR last year, but has been injured all season. He is starting to get healthy and finally found the end zone last week, and his slow start to the year should leave him low owned in a tournament. Taywan Taylor has really stepped up with Dangerfield limited and had a huge game last weekend. It can be tough to nail down which one to target, but both are viable GPP targets, and Taylor is still cheap at just $6,100.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns – O/U 61

Oklahoma State

I like the Cowboys QB, Mason Rudolph as a player, but he’s a bit too expensive for me right now in DFS, so he’s a guy I won’t have any exposure to. If you can find him at a decent price point, I don’t mind him as this Texas defense is not the defense that we saw last season. The Oklahoma State passing game is tough to pinpoint as they’ve spread the ball around, and their top WR from last year, Brandon Shephard, has been a no-show. David Glidden has actually led the way but only has 12 receptions in three games. I’ll probably just avoid the situation, but I don’t hate the idea of taking one more shot on Shephard to see if this is the week he busts out.

The Oklahoma State running game has been more predictable than their passing game, as Chris Carson has nailed down the starting role. He was a highly-touted junior college transfer that the Cowboys pried away from Georgia, and he produced his first 100-yard rushing day in his last outing, as well as two rushing TDs. Texas is allowing 4.8 YPC, and in particularl, I think he makes a solid mid-range option on DK at just $5,400, but I wouldn’t pay his price on FD or FA.

Texas

I’m curious to see the ownership on Texas QB Jerod Heard as he’s coming off of a monstrous game against Cal, but his price is on the rise. He is absolutely dynamic in the run game and has run for 259 yards and three TDs in his two starts. Cooper Rush ran for 51 yards and a TD against this Cowboys’ defense in the opener, and he’s nowhere near the athlete Heard is, so I would expect another solid day on the ground. I think his 364 passing yards last game is fool’s gold, though, as it came against one of the worst secondaries in the country in Cal. On FD, I’d much rather pay the extra for $400 for Mahomes or Matt Johnson, but he’s in play as a QB2 on DK and FA.

Outside of Heard there’s not a whole lot else to like on Texas offensively. Their top RB Jonathan Gray did finally get involved last weekend as he scored two TDs, but he still only had 11 carries which is concerning. Texas did do a better job of looking to get Daje Johnson involved offensively last week, so he’d be the one WR to maybe consider in a large-field tournament if you can find him at a cheap price point.

Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates – O/U 54

Virginia Tech

Brendan Motley has been a pleasant surprise for the Hokies as he’s thrown for two TDs, and run for a TD in each of his past two games. He’s not seeing huge volume in the passing game, as he hasn’t topped 25 pass attempts, so he’s a guy I’d look to as a cheaper QB2 option as he’s only $6,000 on DK. East Carolina has really struggled to stop the run as they’re allowing over 5.0 YPC and 291 rushing YPG. However, the Hokies are RBBC so you can’t target their RBs, but Motley saw 15 carries last game, so he’s a viable target to nail down the Hokies’ passing and running game.

Motley’s top target has been Isaiah Ford who has three receiving TDs on the season, and topped 100 receiving yards last game. The offense he plays limits some of his upside, but he’s a viable play in this matchup. The last player to consider here would be Bucky Hodges at the TE spot on FD.

East Carolina

Virginia Tech is a defense I typically don’t mess with and there’s only one East Carolina player I’m giving a look, and that is Isaiah Jones. ECU fed the ball to Justin Hardy last year, and it looks like Jones is stepping into that role this year. He has 24 receptions over the past two weeks, including an impressive 14-catch 135-yard game against a tough Florida defense. It’s a tough matchup, but he’s cheap on both sites, and despite the matchup, the volume should still be there.

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders – O/U 80

TCU

This is THE game to load up on this slate, as it carries a total of 80, and as long as these offenses don’t shoot themselves in the foot, I think it goes over that total. Last year, this one got out of hand and TCU flat-out embarrassed the Red Raiders as they covered that total by themselves by putting up 82 points. 82! Trevone Boykin threw 433 yards and seven TDs, while Aaron Green had 100 yards on only 6 carries, and Josh Doctson had two receiving TDs.

Texas Tech has shown marginal improvements defensively, but they were helped out by Arkansas’ penalties last weekend and allowed 45 points to Sam Houston State in their opener. This TCU offense is very potent and with the TCU defense banged up, the Horned Frogs know they’re going to have win in shootout fashion. That’s what happened last weekend as they outlasted SMU with Boykin totaling six TDs. He’s one of the best dual-threats in the country and he’s the top overall option at QB in this slate.

I’d make sure to get plenty of exposure to this game in each lineup, so if you’re playing the Boykin fade, then I’d look to squeeze in Aaron Green at RB. At the beginning of the season, there were some concerns about Aaron Green in a RBBC, but with SMU threatening TCU last week, they turned to him for 21 carries and he produced 164 yards and two TDs. He’ll be the guy they turn to in close games, and Tech is once again getting gashed on the ground, as they’re allowing 5.1 YPC. I also wouldn’t be afraid of just pairing Green and Boykin up and basically locking-in all of TCU’s TDs. He’s also a threat in the receiving game, so you could get lucky and get a TD pass from Boykin to Green.

At WR, Josh Doctson is Boykin’s top target and he’s his go to option in the red-zone. He makes a great hand-cuff with Boykin and is at worst a top 3 receiving option on this slate. After Doctson, it gets a little murkier. Kolby Listenbee is their big play guy so he has some solid upside given the total. He is listed as questionable for this one so be sure to monitor this one to make sure he is playing. If he sits for some reason, I’d give a solid bump to KaVontae Turpin, who has scored a TD in each of the past two weeks and is very cheap.

Texas Tech

I think Tech has a solid shot at pulling off the upset here, as they’re playing with a ton of confidence, and this TCU defense has been depleted by injuries. The Horned Frogs just suspended one of their starting DEs and are now expected to be down seven starters from their original depth chart. Those losses are really showing up, as SMU gave them fits last week and put up 37 points and 508 yards of total offense. That should mean big things for this Tech offense, so be sure to grab exposure to both Boykin, as well as Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes. This is often though of as an Air Raid offense, and that is true, but this season we are getting an added running bonus out of Mahomes. According to the advanced stats page, he has 11 red zone rush attempts, which leads the nation, and that has translated into four rushing TDs. I have him number-two on my QB board right behind Boykin, but he’ll save you some money to load up in a few extra spots, so I really like him here.

His top option out wide is Jakeem Grant, who is a top-four receiving option on the day. He’s more of a PPR guy, but he’s sub-$7,000 on FanDuel, which is just too cheap. The second and third options for the Red Raiders are Devin Lauderdale and Reginald Davis. Davis was in the doghouse due to an offseason arrest, but he’s come on strong in the past two games with three receiving TDs. Lauderdale tanked last week, but he’s a big play so that will happen at times. He’s still cheap, and in a game like this I could certainly see him grabbing a long TD.

Tech is obviously more of a passing offense than running offense, so their RB DeAndre Washington can be a volatile roster. However, given the high total, I think he’s very much in play this week, especially on DK where he is just $4,700. He gets solid work in the passing game, and I think 80 to 100 yards of total offense and a TD is a very reasonable expectation.

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