CFB Grind Down: Week 6 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-13 13:40:16

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

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Check out a25smith’s expert breakdowns of the games from the early slate here.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide – O/U 48

Breakdown

Arkansas

Elite Plays

Drew Morgan ($5,700 FD, $4,800 DK) – Morgan came through again last game with another 100-yard receiving day. Alabama obviously has a very strong defense and just got done manhandling Georgia with their one-dimensional game. Arkansas can throw the ball, however, and that is how Ole Miss picked apart this defense, which I expect Brandon Allen to attempt to do this weekend. Morgan is the top receiver for the Hogs and is still priced extremely low despite having a ton of targets every single game. He is an extremely safe play, even against the Tide’s strong D.

Secondary Plays

None – An elite play against the Alabama defense is extremely rare, which is why there are no Secondary Plays here. The only reason I like Morgan so much today is the cheap price for a #1 receiver who will get a ton of targets and has great history after Keon Hatcher went down, and the fact that Arkansas is going to have to pass.

Alabama

Elite Plays

Derrick Henry ($7,900 FD, $7,700 DK) – The Arkansas rush defense is a pretty strong group, but we’re still talking about Derrick Henry and the Alabama rush attack. I think that Henry is a lock for 20 carries with solid game flow and a 6.0 YPC average (his average on the season) so with two TDs, he’ll be a good value. He should be easier to fit in your lineups with the pricing changes on this DK slate.

Secondary Plays

Calvin Ridley ($4,500 FD, $4,400 DK) – Ridley has taken over the deep threat on the outside after Foster went down and seems to be a top option in the Alabama passing attack. He is no Amari Cooper, but definitely could put up big numbers against an Arkansas defense which has struggled to stop the pass this season. I like Morgan more due to the fact that Arkansas will likely have to throw later in the game, but there is merit here in using Ridley as a GPP gamble. It helps on FanDuel that he is min-priced, as he really helps grab some of the bigger names on the slate.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers – O/U 60

Breakdown

Oklahoma State

Elite Plays

None – I like Oklahoma State just fine here – although I think Vegas is overrating them a little in this game and they do not have a dominant fantasy star. The fact that their backfield is injured is not a good sign for me and I do not think there are any surefire options.

Secondary Plays

Mason Rudolph ($7,900 FD, $6,500 DK) – Both Carson and Childs are likely to return this week, making it tough to gauge the running game. With the RBs not 100%, look for Rudolph to continue throwing and throwing to his top guy David Glidden. The price is decent on DraftKings, but I could really pass on FanDuel as I would rather pay up for a few other guys in the top range.

David Glidden ($5,900 FD, $4,300 DK) – Sheperd was the top guy coming into the season but the targets leader right now is David Glidden and he looks to be the #1 option. I still like Sheperd, but I think for around the same price the safer play here is Glidden. I do not love playing Oklahoma State here, but they are one of the highest over/unders on the slate and this should be a very competitive game. Someone is going to smash value here and I hope it is these guys I have exposure to.

West Virginia

Elite Plays

Jovon Durante ($5,300 FD, $3,700 DK) – Two weeks ago it was half the site playing Durante with his cheap price, and he basically got blanked. Last week, he was still owned by a few but ended up catching 4 for 44. I like this matchup better and Durante is still leading the team in targets right ahead of Shelton Gibson. You would be hard pressed to find another WR with this play-making ability on a team like WVU at such a low price, so take advantage while he is still cheap.

Secondary Plays

Skyler Howard ($7,700 FD, $6,300 DK) – DraftKings just refuses to raise the price of these West Virginia guys. Granted, the matchup is about the same as last week, but the main options on this team are still underpriced due to how many plays they will run and how efficient they have been at scoring the football. Howard has a decent ability to run when the play breaks down and has a solid corps of WRs who can get open like Gibson, Durante, and old man Daikel Shorts. Howard has thrown over 30 times in the last two games and while he was not good against Oklahoma, should come through with a better stat line this week.

Shelton Gibson ($6,000 FD, $4,500 DK) – Gibson is more expensive than Durante and makes a bigger GPP play in my eyes this week. I think he will be about the same owned as Durante here and while he is more expensive, he holds the higher upside with more big play ability. Oklahoma State is no slouch as their defense ranks just under Oklahoma on the season, but all this will do is ensure that Howard has to continue passing all game.

Wendell Smallwood ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK/Rushel Shell ($5,800 FD, $4,200 DK) – Smallwood is the top back here, but Shell has forced himself into a timeshare and might be worth a look for $4,200 on DK if you need to go cheap at RB. I would not touch Shell on FD, though, since he is the same price as Smallwood. Both guys got over 20 carries last game and they should approach that number again. Smallwood has been great this season and makes for a solid play in cash, while Shell makes more of the GPP plays. Keep an eye out for any carry split news as that could help you make the decision but both guys are in play even against the Pokes.

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers – O/U 40

Breakdown

Florida

Elite Plays

Demarcus Robinson ($6,200 FD, $4,800 DK) – Robinson is one step from the doghouse but he is the main playmaker on this team and gives Grier a guy he can trust with the ball. While I am not yet to the point where I can trust Grier (last Saturday’s performance was an outlier), I do think we can trust Robinson for at least five catches and 50 yards here. His price is affordable and as the #1 receiver on this Florida team deserves consideration.

Secondary Plays

None

Missouri

None – Florida has a solid defense and really likes to slow down the pace and run hardly any plays. The over/under of 40 here is nauseating, and even with an improvement over Mauk at QB in Lock, I really do not want to take a shot here on a team not even expected to score three TDs. I am fading this Missouri offense.

TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats – O/U 63

Breakdown

TCU

Elite Plays

Trevone Boykin ($10,000 FD, $9,100 DK) – The highest-priced player on the slate is also the best buy, which makes sense. Boykin has been absolute money this year and is one of the highest-scoring players week in and week out. The dynamic playmaker is the top QB on the board, and since there is a lack of other options, he will be finding his way on to a lot of my lineups. Boykin does not have the greatest matchup here against Kansas State, but this is still the highest over/under on the board and TCU is still projected to hit around 35 points. Use with confidence.

Josh Doctson ($8,700 FD, $7,600 DK) – Doctson is the top WR on the board, and should be priced like it. He is the top target for Boykin who scores four to five TDs every game, with half of them going to Doctson. I am bigger on the TCU passing game as Kansas State has absolutely stifled the run, and Green struggled a bit last week. I think TCU has a lot of success through the air in this one as I do not think the K-State secondary can deal with the speed and strength of Doctson. You will need to find some value to fit both guys, but we saw two weeks ago when Doctson is the only receiver, he gets fed and puts up a point total with Boykin which can vault you into cash with just those two.

Secondary Plays

KaVontae Turpin ($4,900 FD, $4,600 DK) – Turpin’s price jumped on DK after his monster game last week and for good reason, but somehow managed to stay the same on FanDuel. It is a game that we have been looking for for a while, but his consistency is still a risk especially with Listenbee unsure of playing at this point. If Listenbee plays, I most likely will be limiting my exposure to Turpin, but there will be a few Boykin/Turpin stacks if Listenbee is out. Like I noted above, K-State has a top rush defense in the nation so look for Boykin to take to the air giving his WRs solid value.

Kansas State

Elite Plays

None – I am having a hard time really liking a ton of guys here against TCU. I know KSU is going to score, but they run too much and the offense is distributed too much to call anyone an “elite play” at this point.

Secondary Plays

Joe Hubener ($6,100 FD, $5,300 DK) – This is a pretty reasonable price here despite him coming off a head injury against Oklahoma State and his poor game there. Reports are that Hubener is going to play in this one and with his running ability, the fact that he is only $5,300 on DK and $6,100 on FD is intriguing. K-State loves to run the ball and surprisingly TCU has given up 170 yards of rushing per game. The TCU defense is expected to give up almost four touchdowns in this one so I would not be surprised if Hubener was able to hit value here. The problem is that they may take it easier on him and not have him rush as many times due to the head injury, but we are not risking a ton for just $5,300 at QB. I am not a fan of Justin Silmon but he gets a small bump due to the injury and we need to know the status of Kody Cook as well who could end up being an interesting option if for some reason Hubener is held out. Keep an eye on this one for options.

East Carolina Pirates at Brigham Young Cougars – O/U 57

Breakdown

East Carolina

Elite Plays

Isaiah Jones – ($5,900 FD, $4,800 DK) A couple of bad games from Jones has soured him a little in my book, but he is still the top guy in this offense which prides itself in throwing it all over the field in the last couple of years. The problem here is that Kemp made way for James Summers in the last game, who is more of a runner than a passer, and if Kemp gets the call again in this game, his leash will be very short. Look for Kemp to go to Jones early and often in that case, as his most dynamic player. There is risk involved here, and if Summers was starting, I would think long and hard about using Jones.

Secondary Plays

James Summers ($4,500 FD, $6,300 DK)* – Summers is not a drop-everything-and-play-him guy, but he is someone you should continue to monitor the situation of. At bare minimum on FD, he could end up making 6x value if he is to start, and could possibly make value if he comes off the bench for Kemp as well. He is as GPP as they get right now, but if he starts, the big runner could impact the game in incredible ways and destroy BYU on the ground. Keep an eye on this situation.

BYU

Elite Plays

Algernon Brown ($6,000 FD, $4,700 DK) – With Adam Hine out for the next month, look for Algernon Brown and Francis Bernard to carry the weight of the BYU rushing attack. Brown got 18 carries in the last game, and looks like the 66-33 carry split leader, so I will roll him at $4,700 on DK and $6,000 on FD, however, I would not hate Bernard at $3,500 and $4,500. East Carolina gives it up on the ground with 192 yards allowed per game and has one of the worst defenses in the country, so after some tough matchups, BYU should get back to scoring a lot of points here. BYU is projected around five touchdowns in this game, and Brown should be able to tack on at least one.

Secondary Plays

Mitch Mathews ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK) – Mathews is the top dog in this offense and even without Hill, Mangum is still getting him the ball. He is expensive, but he is still pulling in almost 27% of his targets compared to Juergens 15% of the targets – Mathews has a much lower completion percentage. He will get the opportunities today against a poor ECU defense and is a solid play at WR despite the price.

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