Best Chargers vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday Night Football from Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his four favorite NFL prop bets for the Los Angeles Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will open Week 2 on Thursday evening at Arrowhead Stadium in a highly-anticipated matchup between two division rivals – each of which has Super Bowl aspirations. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing the Chiefs as 4-point home favorites on the spread. With less than 24 hours until kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, bettors may find more expected value on player props for this Thursday Night Football game.
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Chargers vs. Chiefs Player Props
- Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions
- Patrick Mahomes Over 290.5 Passing Yards
- Justin Herbert Under 37.5 yards – Longest Pass Completion
Travis Kelce o6.5 Receptions (-125)
Last December against the Los Angeles Chargers, Travis Kelce had 10 receptions for 191 receiving yards and two touchdowns in an overtime thriller. Earlier in the year, Kelce totaled seven receptions and 104 receiving yards against the Chargers – making him the Chiefs’ leading pass-catcher in both contests against their intra-division foes. In 2020, Kelce played only one game against the Chargers, securing nine catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. In the offseason, Kyle Van Noy came over to Los Angeles after spending five of his previous six seasons with the New England Patriots. Though Van Noy has always been adept at defending the run, he has consistently graded as one of the worst linebackers in the NFL in coverage across his career. Kelce figures to get a number of different looks from the Chargers defense in this one, but he should get at least a few favorable snaps against Van Noy, which gives him a safe floor this evening, with an extremely high ceiling. Expect the veteran tight-end to be plenty busy on Thursday against a Los Angeles defense that allowed a hobbled Darren Waller to have 79 receiving yards in a Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes o295.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Patrick Mahomes will struggle without Tyreek Hill camp has been awfully quiet since the Chiefs scored 44 points against the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. In their Week 1 slaughter of the Cardinals, Mahomes completed 30-of-39 passes for 360 passing yards, including five touchdowns. Notably, six different Kansas City pass-catchers had at least three receptions, and another three pass-catchers had at least one catch in the win. During the preseason, many pundits forecasted regression for Mahomes and company in 2022, but I mentioned in our preview of the Chiefs that this offense is actually better this fall than it has been in past years. On Thursday, Mahomes draws a favorable matchup against a Los Angeles secondary unit that is likely to be without their top cover cornerback, J.C. Jackson, who had ankle surgery only three weeks ago. Even if Jackson plays, he is unlikely to be at full strength – meaning that Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis will be responsible for trying to slow-down this dynamic Kansas City passing attack. If that is the case, Mahomes could threaten for his second consecutive 300-yard performance in this matchup.
Justin Herbert u37.5 yards – Longest Pass Completion (-114)
Per Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs played an abundance of Quarters coverage (30.8 percent of snaps) and Cover 2 (24.6 percent of snaps). Overall, the defense was in a two-high structure for over 60.0 percent of their time on the field in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals. Playing two-high coverage limits the opposition’s ability to attack down-the-field, forcing them to settle for underneath routes, or risk throwing into crowded areas if insisting on throwing the ball deep. Against the
Las Vegas Raiders, Justin Herbert connected with Keenan Allen for a 42-yard completion in the first-half, but no other member of the receiving room hauled in a catch for more than 30 yards. Allen’s absence for this contest, coupled with strong safety play from the Chiefs in two-high coverages should give this prop a good opportunity to cash on Thursday.
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