Chargers vs. Chiefs Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds
| Chargers Odds | +4 |
| Chiefs Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Date | Sunday, December 8 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet on Sunday Night Football in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of Week 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 4-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 43 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
Entering play, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 11-1 and can essentially clinch a division title with a win this evening. Justin Herbert and the Chargers are 8-4, needing a victory to give themselves a realistic chance to make a December push for the AFC West crown.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Will McConkey play on Sunday Night Football?
WR Ladd McConkey is officially listed as questionable following 3 consecutive days of being limited at practice this week. According to Ian Rapoport, McConkey is dealing with an AC joint injury and a sprained knee, making him a true game-time decision for this key divisional battle. Even if he plays, it seems highly probable that we will see a reduced version of him this evening.
Since the team’s Week 5 bye, McConkey leads the Chargers with 34 receptions on 43 targets for 515 receiving yards on first reads. He has the 4th-most receiving yards in the entire NFL during that stretch on first reads, making him one of the more valuable players in the league to his particular team.
His status is worth following ahead of kickoff.
Perryman listed as DOUBTFUL
LB Denzel Perryman is listed as doubtful for tonight’s action, which is a notable loss for this defense. Even having missed 2 games this fall, Perryman ranks 4th on the Chargers in tackles. In his absence this season, Los Angeles’ defense ranks 15th in EPA/play and 19th in success rate, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in success rate against both the run and the pass.
This unit could be vulnerable once again, facing a Kansas City offense that has been among the best in the NFL this season at controlling pace and converting on 3rd down.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
What to expect from Mahomes, Chiefs offense
Patrick Mahomes seems to be finally hitting his stride in 2024. Following a slow start to the year, Mahomes has the 5th most passing yards of any quarterback since Week 8, posting a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. During that time period, he has only 1 game with fewer than 262 passing yards. If he can get any help from his running back room, it’s possible that the team’s passing attack could open up even more.
Last week, running back Isiah Pacheco returned from injury, making an immediate impact for Kansas City with 44 rushing yards on only 7 attempts. However, it’s worth noting that 34 of those yards came on a single rush, with Pacheco totaling only 10 rushing yards on his other 6 carries. Kareem Hunt remained heavily involved in the team’s ground game as well, with 7 rush attempts and only 1 fewer snap played against the Raiders. There is little doubt that Pacheco is the more explosive backfield option, but the Chiefs seem unwilling to immediately give Pacheco the keys to a full workload so soon after returning from a significant injury.
Concern for Kansas City defense?
Kansas City’s defense was playing extremely well heading into the team’s Week 6 bye, but we have seen some red flags emerge for this unit of late. Since Week 8, the Chiefs’ defense ranks 26th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate. They have continued to be a top-10 defense against the run, but they have regressed to 28th in EPA/play and 21st in success rate against the pass across their last 6 games. These unimpressive numbers are even more of a concern considering the fact that they have faced Gardner Minshew, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, and Aidan O’Connell for 4 of those games. In the 2 games they played more respectable quarterbacks – Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen – the Chiefs allowed 24 points and 30 points, respectively.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction
Kansas City’s offense has put up some poor showings during the last month, with only 16 points against the Broncos, 21 points against the Bills, and 19 points against the Panthers. Still, it’s difficult to deny that there is significant offensive potential on this team, with Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball to Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins, and the return of Isiah Pacheco adding some much-needed explosiveness to this group.
More importantly, both of these teams have been trending in the wrong direction defensively of late. The Chiefs defense ranks 26th in EPA/play since their bye week, and the Chargers have been a bottom-half defense across the last couple of weeks while being thin on talent at the linebacker position.
This is a low total for a game featuring two quality quarterbacks and a pair of capable offenses.
PICK: Over 43 (-110, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Getty Images