Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Chiefs vs. Falcons Odds
| Chiefs Odds | +6 |
| Falcons Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Sunday, September 22nd |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
The Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons will meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, with both teams fresh off of improbable come-from-behind wins.
Ahead of kickoff in Week 3, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had a 27.8% win probability at one point on their final drive in Week 2 before a defensive pass interference gave them an opportunity to kick a game-winning field goal. Kirk Cousins and the Falcons had only a 2.4% win probability with 1:56 remaining in their Week 2 matchup against the Eagles, before embarking on a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Time to panic in Kansas City?
The Chiefs are 2-0, which is undeniably a good thing, but the way in which they have arrived at that point can’t make anyone in their building feel too comfortable. Patrick Mahomes and company were a big toe away from potentially losing at home in Week 1 to Baltimore. The Chiefs were out-gained by 99 yards in that contest. In Week 2, Kansas City was out-gained again, this time by 34 yards.
Mahomes finished Week 2 ranked 26th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. Among quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks this season, Mahomes has the lowest aDOT and ranks 27th in turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF.
Further complicating matters for Kansas City’s offense is the fact that starting RB Isiah Pacheco was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The Chiefs already had backup Clyde Edwards-Helaire on injured reserve, which prompted them to sign Kareem Hunt ahead of kickoff this weekend. Mahomes has proven time and time again that only fools doubt his ability to rally the troops, but there are reasons to be concerned here. Travis Kelce is on the wrong side of 30 years old and can’t consistently save the day, like he was once able to.
Chiefs defense not sharp to begin 2024
Again, Kansas City is 2-0, and when a team wins, a lot of things get overlooked. With that being said, the Chiefs’ defense has been mediocre, bordering on bad through two weeks. They allowed a 52.5% success rate and 452 yards of offense to Baltimore in Week 1. Last week, they ranked 29th out of 32 defenses in success rate once again, allowing 320 yards of offense and 25 points to Cincinnati.
Kansas City’s defense finished 23rd in pressure rate in their season opener and only marginally improved to 19th in Week 2. Their defensive line ranks 24th in adjusted line yards and 26th in adjusted sack%. This unit is allowing the 6th most first downs per game, which is only slightly better than the rapidly devolving Panthers.
The Chiefs lost star CB L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans during the offseason, which could be contributing to some early-season issues on this side of the ball.
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Falcons offense trending up heading into Week 3
Kirk Cousins ranked 27th in EPA/play in Week 1 against the Steelers, playing in his first game since suffering a season-ending Achilles injury in 2023. However, he looked significantly more comfortable in Week 2, finishing 6th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play, which included a game-winning 7-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes of the game.
Though Cousins’ improved play is gaining all of the headlines in Atlanta, it’s worth noting how well the offensive line played against the Eagles. Through two games, the Falcons’ offensive line ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards and 9th in adjusted sack%. According to TruMedia, Atlanta averaged 2.04 yards per carry before contact against the Eagles, compared to 0.95 yards per carry before contact in Week 1 against the Steelers.
A better performance from the offensive line unquestionably helped Cousins in the pocket. It also helped Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combine for 150 rushing yards and 6.5 yards per carry against Philadelphia. The Falcons offense was 5th in EPA/play and 6th in success rate in Week 2 and will look to carry that momentum into Week 3 as they look to get over the .500 mark.
Atlanta’s defense still figuring things out
The two positives for Atlanta’s defense on Monday Night Football were that they helped contribute to a win and that they held Philadelphia to 2 for 5 in the red zone. Still, it’s difficult to completely ignore allowing 365 yards of offense, 22 first downs, and managing only 1 sack. And No. 1 on the aforementioned list doesn’t happen if Saquon Barkley doesn’t drop a game-sealing touchdown in the final minutes, or if Nick Sirianni opts for a field goal in the first half instead of a turnover on downs.
Entering Week 3, Atlanta’s defense ranks 12th in yards allowed per play, 25th in sacks per pass attempt, and 25th in 3rd down%. Overall, the Falcons simply aren’t getting home on the quarterback enough, and they lack elite talent elsewhere on defense to make up for the fact. Their pressure rate did increase against the Eagles compared to Week 1, but they figure to have a difficult time getting to Patrick Mahomes, who has one of the lowest average time-to-throws in the entire NFL so far this fall.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction
Neither of these defenses has been particularly good through two weeks, with neither team being able to generate consistent pressure or get off of the field on 3rd down regularly. No matter how bad Patrick Mahomes looked in Week 2, the reality is that he has always figured things out sooner rather than later when he’s found himself in a rare slump. Playing in primetime in Week 3 without his top two running backs presents a perfect opportunity for a vintage Mahomes performance. Kirk Cousins looked far more comfortable in the pocket in Week 2 as well, and Atlanta’s offensive line is paving some serious running lanes for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. This could be a rare shootout on Sunday Night Football.
PICK: OVER 46.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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