Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds
| Guardians Odds | +180 |
| Yankees Odds | -200 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 11 |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Tuesday evening, the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees will battle in the Bronx in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. Cleveland eliminated the Tampa Bay Rays in two games during the Wild Card round, while New York had the benefit of a bye after winning the American League East division during the regular season. In today’s series opener, the Guardians will hand the ball to Cal Quantrill, who will be opposed by Gerrit Cole. Oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to prevail in this spot, pricing them as -200 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the American League Division Series.
Cleveland Guardians
Cal Quantrill is far from an ace, but he has given the Guardians an opportunity to win nearly each time he has taken the mound in 2022. The 15-game winner was particularly effective down the stretch of the regular season, with a 2.21 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP in his final 12 turns through the rotation – a stretch of outings that included five matchups against eventual playoff teams. Importantly, Quantrill allowed only five home runs across his final 69.2 innings of work, which was in stark contrast to the 16 home runs that he allowed in his first 117.0 innings of the year. Keeping the ball in the yard will be of the utmost importance in a Game 1 matchup against a New York offense that led all of baseball in home runs this summer.
The Cleveland offense does not profile particularly well against Gerrit Cole. Cole is most vulnerable against the long-ball, which is not the strength of this Guardians’ offense. This summer, Cleveland hit the second-fewest home runs in the league. In two contests against Cole in 2022, the Guardians scored only two runs in 12.2 innings.
The path to a victory on Tuesday, and the path to the American League Championship Series, for the Guardians is in the late innings. Since the All-Star break, Cleveland’s arm barn ranks 1st in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, 2nd in walk rate, and 5th in left-on-base percentage. If Manager Tito Francona can get strong starting pitching this week, he has all the weapons he will need to gut-out wins in the latter frames.
New York Yankees
Somehow, only one year after nearly winning the American League Cy Young award, a public narrative has gained steam that Gerrit Cole is no longer an ace. Taking a look at Cole’s 2022, the claim holds some weight. Across his final 18 starts of the regular season, Cole posted a 3.89 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP. In that span, his ERA was one percent worse than the league average pitcher, and his FIP was only eight percent better than league average. His velocity and spin rates remain elite, but his fastball command regressed sharply in 2022 compared to previous seasons. The result was a career-worst 33 home runs allowed. Fortunately for Cole, he still has strong swing-and-miss stuff. Today, he will be tasked with slowing down a Cleveland offense that hit the second-fewest home runs in the league this year. If he can limit the long-ball, he should be able to turn-in an excellent performance in Game 1.
The bats for the Yankees are well-positioned to have a strong performance on Tuesday, facing Quantrill, who struggled with keeping the ball in the yard for the majority of the summer. New York had four players – Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres – each hit 24 or more home runs this year. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, the Bronx Bombers ranked 2nd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 4th in walk rate, and 4th in HardHit percentage against right-handed pitching.
The primary concern for New York is their bullpen, which ranked 15th in FIP, 13th in WHIP, 20th in strikeout percentage, and 27th in walk rate after the All-Star break. In previous postseason runs, Manager Aaron Boone has had far more talent at his disposal, but still managed to pull the wrong strings in key moments. His weapons are far more limited this fall, especially against a high-contact Cleveland offense.
Guardians-Yankees Pick
The Cleveland Guardians are the youngest team in the history of baseball to achieve this level of postseason success. On Tuesday, this team will be the enemy in one of the most hostile environments in sports – traveling to the Bronx against some of the most passionate fans in the world. Nerves could be an issue for the Guardians in the early portion of this contest. The aforementioned lack of power for the Cleveland offense could also keep their scoring opportunities to a minimum against Cole through the first half of this contest. Expect the New York Yankees to get on the board against Quantrill and to have the lead after five innings in this spot.
PICKS: Yankees (-0.5) – First 5 innings (-135)
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