NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Colts-Patriots DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Colts and Patriots on Sunday Morning Football in Germany. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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The Colts are still fighting for a Wild Card spot at 4-5, while the Patriots are 2-7 and playing for pride (and a high draft pick). Josh Downs is very iffy after re-aggravating his knee injury last week, Alec Pierce is questionable with an ankle injury but did get a full practice in, and TE Drew Ogletree didn’t make the trip to Germany with a foot injury. DeVante Parker also didn’t make the trip and remains out for New England, so Douglas, Reagor, and JuJu will be the top WRs for Jones, although Douglas is officially questionable with an ankle injury.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Colts vs. Patriots Week 10
Currently, this game is sitting at a 43.5 total, with the Colts favored by 1.5 points. Both defenses have been below average this year and have dealt with their fair share of injuries, and with strong running games and more than capable WRs/TEs, I’m expecting both teams to move the ball consistently, and hopefully keep this game competitive down to the final drive.
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew ($10,000) should have to throw more this game than the 26 attempts he had last week in an easy win vs. Carolina, and against a 21st ranked Patriots pass defense he makes for a great cash game play as the fourth most expensive player.
Mac Jones ($9,200) has been very mediocre with just one game above 20 FP on the year, but against a 23rd-ranked Colts pass defense, I think it makes sense to use him in your main build and cover both QBs. Even without Parker, Jones has plenty of weapons at WR/TE, and even Stevenson at RB can turn a short pass into a long TD for him, and there looks to be plenty of value to fit both QBs in your cash game lineup comfortably.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor ($11,400) is the priciest player in this game by a full $1k, and with Zack Moss ($8,800) still taking a sizeable chunk of touches each week, I will be looking to spend my salary elsewhere in cash games. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) then you should certainly have plenty of Taylor in flex and captain spots, and I’d even get some Moss exposure, but in single-entry contests, I’m looking to spend on both QBs with Pittman.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($10,400) is the second priciest player, but he’s by far the highest upside Patriots skill player, and should definitely be on any lineup you build that omits Jones. Stevenson has seen 6 targets in three of the last four games, and as slight underdogs here, there’s a good chance he sees similar passing work, but with just 8-10 carries in five straight games, I think he’s going to have to find the endzone to pay off his big price tag, making him more of a GPP play for me.
Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman ($10,200) is my top play in this game, as he’s cheaper than both RB1s, will be looking at a huge target share if Downs is out, and will be facing a defense allowing 232.7 pass yards/game that will be without JC Jackson. Pittman has gone for 14+ FP in four straight games, is averaging over 9 targets/game on the year, and just has too big of a floor/ceiling combo here not to use in cash games and in the captain spot, preferably. Alec Pierce ($800) is crazy cheap and will be looking at a WR2 role if Downs sits, so including him in a stack with Pittman and Minshew makes a lot of sense in GPPs if not your main build.
Demario Douglas ($7,800) is the WR1 for Jones with Parker out, and he’s seen 6+ targets in three straight games now, but still hasn’t eclipsed 55 receiving yards or found the endzone. I wish his price was a bit cheaper given his volatility and the fact that six Patriots players had at least 6 targets last game, so I’m considering him more of a GPP play and not someone I can trust in my main build for about $2k more than I would like to spend on him. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,800) is the Pats WR I’m looking to use in cash games, as he had a solid 6-51 line on 7 targets last week, and should be relied on heavily again with Parker still out. Jalen Reagor ($400) had one catch on 6 targets last week, so even at almost minimum price, he’s just a GPP flier for me.
Tight End
The Colts TEs are all extremely volatile and TD-dependent for value, so they’re off my cash game radar, but Hunter Henry ($5,800) should be looking at 5+ targets with a good shot at a TD, so definitely have exposure to him in GPPs and possibly your main build.
Defense / Special Teams
Even at just $4k, I’m not interested in the Pats DST outside of GPPs, while the Colts DST ($5,400) has some upside against a sack and turnover-prone Jones, but they’re just too expensive to be considered anything but a GPP play.
Matt Gay ($5,000) has been one of the most consistent kickers in football this year, and kicking in a dome with easy 50+ yard range, he’s a super solid cash game play. Chad Ryland ($4,600) only has one FG over 50 yards on the year and just two games with 10+ FP, so he’s just a GPP flier for me.
Sunday Morning Football NFL DFS Strategy
I think a 3-3 build makes the most sense, given pricing and the projected close spread of this game. I think having both QBs is the way to go, given how cheap they are, and I like having at least one WR from each team to stack with them. If you have the salary and want to use an RB in your main build, I prefer Stevenson over Taylor, and on the other end of the salary spectrum, I prefer Pierce over Reagor for sub-$1k options.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Michael Pittman – Highest upside player from this game with Downs less than 100% or out and a huge target share coming Pittman’s way. Cash game lock and I’d use him in the captain spot if you can.
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster – My favorite p/$ skill player for the Patriots at $3,800, and if he can find the endzone he’ll be a necessity to win GPPs most likely at this cheap.
3. Both QBs – I think Minshew and Jones are both too cheap and should be in your main build stacked with at least one of their WRs.
4. Matt Gay – Pretty much a guaranteed 10+ FP at $5k is hard to pass up in cash games, especially for someone with 20+ FP upside if given a few 50+ yard FG opportunities.
5. Alec Pierce / Jalen Reagor – Both are under $1k with a good chance at 5+ targets, so make sure to have exposure to both in GPPs, and in cash games I prefer Pierce if Downs is out.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Morning Football
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