Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Colts at Titans
The Tennessee Titans welcome the Indianapolis Colts for the first divisional matchup between the two in 2020. Separated by a game, the AFC South matchup is replete with playoff ramifications. Here is a full breakdown plus Thursday Night Football betting picks for the Colts at the Titans.
Use the RotoGrinders odds tool to compare NFL Week 10 betting lines across the online sports betting industry and determine which sportsbook is best for your TNF betting picks.
Colts at Titans NFL Betting Odds
62% of bets backing Tennessee and 65% on the over, per ScoresAndOdds.com.
Colts at Titans TNF Betting Preview
As we settle in after a long first day of sweating our Masters betting picks, a pivotal AFC South matchup is on tap on the 19th hole. The Big Dog, Derrick Henry, welcomes the Indianapolis Colts to Nashville in a battle for first place in the AFC South. Bettors have bounced this spread back and forth throughout the earlier parts of the week with the Titans being both favored and underdogs depending on the online betting site of your preference.
The Titans come to Thursday night with a clean bill of health — even welcoming back Adoree Jackson to the fold. Jackson is a welcome addition given the Titans’ defensive woes this season — especially on third down. The Titans cannot get off the field and allow a league-worst 7.8 third down conversions per game. Jackson might not be ready for a full workload, but should be on the field across from receivers on third down.
Speaking of receivers, the Colts will return T.Y. Hilton to the fold but will be without Jack Doyle (concussion). Hilton has not been a big offensive factor yet — failing to record north of 70 receiving yards in any game this season. Hilton will join a relatively middling WR corps for a team that clearly wants to run first — like their opponents. Philip Rivers completion percentage is fine (67.14%) but the rest of the Colts’ passing numbers are pretty ho-hum. One should question whether or not the Colts will be able to exploit a Titans’ secondary that cannot get off the field (55.6% opponent conversion rate).
With that said, scheduling is a bit of an issue from my perspective in this contest. Indianapolis does not have a big win against any worthy opponents unless you are a big Bears’ supporter. The Colts’ defense is statistically very strong — but most teams that play the Jets, Bears, and Lions will show strong numbers. Derrick Henry is going to be handed the ball often, tonight. I am not sure that Colts’ currently impressive rush defense numbers are going to hold up against the Big Dog at home.
The Ravens and Colts game last week was bet all the way from a +3 to a -1 for the Colts before kickoff. That was with the Colts playing at home. On the road in Tennessee, the number moving to Indy -1, at the time of this writing, is vexing me. Why?
While the Titans’ defensive woes are a concern, Tennessee trots out a second-best scoring offense at home (33.0 points per game). With dynamic passing options for Ryan Tannehill that is buoyed by one of the league’s strongest rushing attacks, I don’t know how the Colts overcome a deficit if the Titans get ahead.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks
If the money and tickets are going to move the line in favor of the Colts, I want the value on the home Titans. The movement is very perplexing and I suspect the Titans’ side gets some later action to push this game closer to a pick’em if not back towards the Tennessee side. Prior that, I will grab the ML at -102 instead of the +1 offered on FanDuel Sportsbook. Book the home dog with the Big Dog!
TNF Betting Pick: Tennessee Titans ML -102 (FanDuel)
Colts and Titans Player Props
Derrick Henry Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
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The Colts sit behind only Tampa Bay in opposing rushing yards per attempt this season. Of course, logic then dictates that we should attack Henry’s rushing prop. As mentioned in the game breakdown, the Colts have not played stiff competition, yet. Does that mean that their defense is bad? No. However, does it mean that I want to compare the Tennessee rushing game and willingness to commit to the running game (30.8 attempts per game) to the New York Jets? No chance.
Derrick Henry will eat tonight. Rotogrinders’ GridironIQ tool shows a projection greater than 90 rushing yards for Henry in tonight’s matchup. The commitment will be there and Henry has plenty of long runs in his past to show off his upside for big gainers. This is my favorite bet of the night. Book the over.
Ryan Tannehill Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-112)
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Due to a steady commitment to a very expensive running game, Ryan Tannehill does not often amass an abundance of passing yards. Only three times this season has Tannehill thrown for more yards than this passing prop. If Henry and the running game are working on all cylinders — I would expect Tannehill to have fewer attempts. Since these two links of thinking correlate, I am going to couple my bet on Henry with the under on the quarterback’s passing yards. Give me the under!
First Touchdown Picks
Here are my first touchdown picks for Thursday Night Football at DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings Sportsbook offers an opt-in promo for players to bet on a first touchdown and receive site credit (up to $20) if that player scores a touchdown at any point but doesn’t score first.
Derrick Henry +525
A.J. Brown +800
Mo Alie-Cox +2500
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