Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds
| Commanders Odds | +13.5 |
| Cowboys Odds | -13.5 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 23 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
It wouldn’t be Thanksgiving without the Dallas Cowboys! Dak Prescott and company will welcome the Washington Commanders to Jerry World on Thursday afternoon for an NFC East showdown at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Entering play, Dallas is 7-3 and tied for the best point-differential in the entire NFL. Washington is 4-7 and has the 5th-worst point differential in football this fall.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Cowboys as 13-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 47.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Washington Commanders
What to expect from Sam Howell
Sam Howell has been as inconsistent as any signal caller in the NFL this season, which makes the Commanders offense a volatile unit every time they step on the field. Howell has thrown for at least three touchdowns in three of his last six games, but he also has 12 interceptions in 2023 – including three against the hapless Giants defense in Week 11.
The most alarming statistic for Howell is the fact that he has been sacked 51 times in 11 games. Only once has he been sacked fewer than three times this year. According to PFF, Howell has the worst rate of pressures turning into sacks of any quarterback in the NFL this year. Facing an elite Dallas pass rush, this is not a kind matchup for the Washington offense.
Can Washington secondary unit keep pace with Dallas offense?
Only the Broncos, Buccaneers, Chargers, and Bengals have allowed more passing yards per play this season than the Commanders. Making matters worse, Washington traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat earlier this year, reducing the team’s pass rush to rubble.
Other than a matchup against the hapless Giants in Week 11, Washington’s defense has struggled mightily to get pressure on the opposing quarterback since the trades – finishing 4th-worst in defensive pressure rate in Week 10 and 6th-worst in defensive pressure rate in Week 9.
This unit has a tall task in front of them against a Dallas offense that is firing on all cylinders. It could get ugly.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott making case for MVP
Dak Prescott had a tumultuous beginning to 2023, but he has performed at an elite level since throwing three interceptions against the 49ers in Week 5. Across his last games, Prescott ranks 3rd in the NFL in passer rating from a clean pocket and 5th in passer rating when under pressure. Incredibly, Prescott has ZERO turnover-worthy-plays since Week 6.
During that stretch, the Cowboys offense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate. Washington’s secondary unit ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per play this season and they traded away two of their best pass rushers prior to the deadline. Prescott should have plenty of time to throw in this contest, setting him up for another potentially explosive performance. He is currently as high as 20:1 to win MVP this year, with no clear front-runner on the list ahead of him. Now is the time to buy his futures stock if looking for a longshot ticket for the back-nine of the NFL regular season.
Dallas defense vulnerable on Thursday?
The Cowboys defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per play of any team in the NFL this year, but it is worth noting that they have faced one of the easiest strengths of schedule during the first half of the campaign. Using EPA/play as our evaluation tool, Dallas has faced only three quarterbacks that rank in the top-15 this year – Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. Those three teams combined to score 87 points in three games, with only the Chargers scoring fewer than 28 points.
Though Sam Howell is far from an elite quarterback, he ranks a respectable 18th in EPA/play this year among qualified passers. Howell also ranks 12th in passer rating from a clean pocket, which is ahead of other notable names such as Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Matthew Stafford.
Dallas finished 2nd in defensive pressure rate in Week 11 and 2nd in Week 10. This unit should be able to get after Howell frequently on Thursday, but they are vulnerable on snaps in which Howell has a clean pocket.
Commanders vs. Cowboys – Picks & Predictions
If there is one thing that we know for sure heading into this matchup, it is that Dak Prescott is playing like an elite quarterback. He has been sensational at home this season, leading his team to 49 points against the Giants, 43 points against the Rams, 38 points against the Patriots, and 30 points against the Jets. Facing a Washington secondary unit that ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per play this season, Prescott and CeeDee Lamb should feast through the air.
Washington has been surprisingly competent in unexplainable ways against good teams in 2023, finishing with 31 points against the Eagles (twice) and 26 points against the Seahawks on the road. This game has shootout written all over it – the over is a worthwhile risk on Thanksgiving.
PICK: Over 47.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)