Commanders vs. Eagles Player Props: Three Predictions for Thursday Night Football
What can we expect on Thursday from A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Thursday, November 14, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresAndOdds.
This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders and Eagles rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in point differential in the NFC this season, making this one of the most highly anticipated marquee matchups of the season to date.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Commanders vs. Eagles, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Thursday!
Commanders vs. Eagles – NFL Player Props
- A.J. Brown Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
- Saquon Barkley Over/Under 13.5 Receiving Yards
- Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns
A.J. Brown OVER 0.5 Touchdowns (+135, FanDuel)
Since Philadelphia’s Week 5 bye, Brown has the 2nd-most receiving yards of any player in the NFL, trailing only JaMarr Chase. Brown ranks 14th in aDOT among qualified receivers in that stretch, which gives him the added bonus of being able to hit a go route for a touchdown, in addition to being a big body in short-yardage situations around the goal line. Brown hasn’t scored a touchdown in any of his last 3 games after scoring in each of his first 3 games. It’s not as simple as saying “he’s due,” but this is a good matchup for him, and the usage metrics indicate that he should have an opportunity or two to score.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112, Bally)
This season, the Commanders have been one of the best defenses in the league when it comes to defending running backs as pass catchers. Entering play, Washington’s defense ranks 3rd in DVOA against the position, allowing a league-low 19.5 receiving yards per game to running backs. Barkley has eclipsed this market number in 4 of 9 games this season but only twice in 6 games that Philadelphia has had both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith active and only once in 3 games with Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert all active. Unless the Eagles find themselves in a negative 2nd-half game script, this appears to be a good spot to target an under.
Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns (+290, FanDuel)
Barkley is in somewhat of a touchdown drought, with only 2 scores in his last 6 games. Part of that is due to the reintroduction of the Brotherly Shove, which has led to Jalen Hurts finding the end zone in each of Philadelphia’s games since their bye week. However, it’s worth noting that Barkley still has 4 goal-line rush attempts in that span – he simply hasn’t converted any of those opportunities into scores. Tonight could be a different story, facing a Washington defense that ranks 24th in rush DVOA this season. The Commanders have continued to struggle of late in this area as well, ranking 24th in rush EPA/play and 21st in rush success rate since Week 5. Barkley is always a threat to take one to the house. If he can convert 1 goal-line touch into a score, this is a play that could have life late in the game if looking for something to sprinkle.
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