Primetime Parlay: Cowboys vs. Titans Same Game Parlay Picks
ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool simulates NFL contests thousands of times using RotoGrinders’ NFL Statistical Projections. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Thursday Night Football same-game parlay for the Cowboys vs Titans.
A potentially meaningful and competitive Thursday Night Football game has been diminished because of the Tennessee Titans’ playoff situation. The Tennessee Titans are headed toward a play-in game in Week 18 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars regardless of the outcome of this week’s games. So, the Titans will rest a bevy of players while the Cowboys look to take advantage and earn another win on the road as they head toward the playoffs. For us, a one-game parlay ticket will be tough given tonight’s rosters but we can make something work. Let’s break down the game.
Same Game Parlay for Cowboys vs. Titans
FanDuel Sportsbook posts the Cowboys as 12.5-point favorites on the road in tonight’s contest in the wake of the titanic Titans’ injury report. On December 20th, the Cowboys were three-point favorites. Per SAO, 75% of betting tickets are on the over for tonight’s game — currently at 39.5 points — while 78% of the betting handle is on the under.
The result of this game is meaningless to the Titans. Regardless of the outcomes of the Tennessee and Jacksonville games this weekend, the Week 18 contest will determine who wins the division and locks up the fourth seed in the playoffs. While we don’t have a word about what Jacksonville plans to do, we learned on Wednesday that the Titans plan on resting… well, everyone… Take a look at the Titans’ final injury report.
Derrick Henry is very doubtful to play in tonight’s contest. We will likely see a heavy dose of Hassan Haskins and Julius Chestnut in the backfield with Malik Willis. The entire offensive line is on the injury report. What a mess. Where can we go for props?
As for the Cowboys, Tony Pollard and Micah Parson are questionable for tonight’s contest on the road. While neither is ruled out, given the Titans’ plans, we shouldn’t be shocked if both sit with Dallas already having locked up a playoff spot. We will need to check back prior to kickoff to see if Pollard is out. If so, Zeke’s props might shoot through the roof as the only bell-cow back for Dallas.
Update – 1:00 PM EST – Malik Willis, Derrick Henry, and Tony Pollard will not play tonight. Josh Dobbs will start at quarterback for the Titans.
So, what can we do? The injury report is making the menu for tonight’s game very lean at the time of this writing. Let’s take a look at some prop selections.
Same Game Parlay Picks – Cowboys & Titans Props
Malik Willis Under 40.5 Rushing Yards
With a weakened offensive line and not much going on downfield, the Cowboy defense might be in full smother mode on Malik Willis. Willis is a very raw talent and will be doing his best to put forth some fight for the Titans tonight. That said, this task might be a bit too much for a rookie quarterback with limited experience.
Willis’ athleticism is one of his best features but he only compiled 43 rushing yards against a far inferior defense in Houston. The Cowboys are superior and should keep Willis in check especially since there are not many threats on the outside. Look for Willis to stay under here in a very, very tough game for the young signal-caller.
Treylon Burks Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of weapons, Treylon Burks is back in the fold and was targeted twice last week in the loss to the Texans. While Burks did not convert a catch, the talented rookie should be featured in tonight’s contest with not much else going on for the Tennessee side. Without Derrick Henry, Malik Willis will have to throw the ball some and should look the way of his rookie teammate a handful of times.
Burks has more than enough playmaking ability to exceed this paltry number. ParlayIQ simulates this outcome going over more than 60% of the time given our simulations at the time of this writing.
Dak Prescott Under 234.5 Passing Yards
Dak Prescott had a huge game last week in the back-and-forth affair with the Eagles. The Cowboys will likely not need a back-and-forth type of effort from Dak in tonight’s game.
Given the context of the game and the very little likelihood that the outcome matters much for either side, Dak could be treated with kid gloves if and when the Cowboys extend a large lead. Like the Titans, the Cowboys have no reason to risk the health of any key pieces in a meaningless affair, much less so if the outcome is not in question. The Titans’ defense is normally stout against the run and very weak against the pass. That said, at some point, the clock will need to run.
I don’t see a need for Dak to throw the ball at a high volume, tonight. We’ll add his under.
Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown
At the time of this writing, our menu is very limited. Before Tony Pollard is potentially ruled out, let’s buy an Ezekiel Elliott touchdown before the odds change. If Zeke is the only Cowboy left in the backfield, one would think his odds to score a touchdown will get far shorter.
If and when the Cowboys are by the goalline, we must assume that Zeke will carry the football. I don’t see the Cowboys putting Dak at risk with any hard-nose rushing plays in tight. Instead, Elliott will continue to be the Cowboy with a nose for the endzone. Touchdowns are always a long shot but I feel far more confident with this leg than the uncertainty of the other offerings with such a massive injury report.
Good luck, tonight!
Cowboys vs. Titans Parlay Odds
- Malik Willis Under 40.5 Rushing Yards
- Treylon Burks Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
- Dak Prescott Over 234.5 Passing Yards
- Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown
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ParlayIQ spits out the following odds for our ticket based on simulations:
FanDuel Sportsbook gives us the ever-so-slight boost on our ticket:
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +954
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.77 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
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