Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Cowboys vs. Giants Odds
| Cowboys Odds | -6 |
| Giants Odds | +6 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Thursday, September 26th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 4 of this year’s NFL regular season begins with an NFC East showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Cowboys as 6-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 44.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Entering 2024, Dallas had won 16 consecutive regular season home games. The Cowboys then lost in Week 2 at home to the Saints and followed that up with another home loss in Week 3 to the Ravens. They will venture back out on the road for Week 4, where they are 1-0 this season.
The Giants are only 1-2 but likely would be 2-1 if not for their kicker getting injured midway through their Week 2 affair against Washington – a game in which they lost 21-18.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Prescott, Cowboys offense still looking for answers
Through three weeks this season, there haven’t been many offenses less productive than the Cowboys. Dak Prescott and company had only 265 yards of total offense in their Week 1 victory over Cleveland, scored on only 5 of their 10 drives in Week 2 against New Orleans, and had only 6 points entering the 4th quarter in Week 3 against Baltimore.
The team’s ground attack has been nonexistent, with only a single running back rush attempt going for 10+ yards out of 49 carries – a 2% explosive rush rate. Among 47 qualified running backs, Rico Dowdle ranks 32nd in yards after contact per rush and Ezekiel Elliott ranks 46th. This is unquestionably the least effective running back room in the entire NFL right now.
The Cowboys’ receivers haven’t been great either. CeeDee Lamb has secured only 13 of his 24 targets, and nobody else on the team has more than 10 receptions. There is a lot of room for improvement across the board for Dallas’ offense heading into Week 4.
Dallas defense struggling to stop the run
After three weeks of action, the Cowboys’ run defense ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. They allowed 115 rushing yards to Alvin Kamara in Week 2 and 151 rushing yards to Derrick Henry in Week 3, with the pair combining for 5 scores on the ground. Ahead of kickoff on Thursday, Dallas ranks 31st in adjusted line yards on the defensive side of the ball, showing that the advanced metrics support the disappointing surface-level results to date.
In Week 4, the Cowboys will once again be without EDGE Sam Williams, DT Jordan Phillips, and CB DaRon Bland. Williams finished 3rd on the team last season with 4.5 sacks. Bland finished 2023 ranked 4th out of 126 cornerbacks in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Dallas is also likely to be without CB Caelen Carson, who was the team’s 5th round draft pick this past summer. Carson played 60 snaps in Week 1, 31 snaps in Week 2, and 62 snaps in Week 3. He’s a notable loss for a unit that is already thin on talent.
New York Giants Preview
Nabers, Giants offense showing signs of life
According to The Athletic, Malik Nabers has been targeted 37 times through his first 3 games, which is the 2nd-most targets of any rookie in their first 3 games since 2000. Nabers has quickly become Daniel Jones’ favorite target, leading the team with 23 receptions, 271 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns, and 14 catches resulting in a first down.
Nabers emerging as a legitimate WR1 has raised Jones’ level of production to a respectable level in consecutive weeks. Excluding Week 1, which was Nabers’ NFL debut and Jones’ first game returning from a serious injury, Jones ranks 5th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks.
The Giants are still a work in progress on the offensive side of the ball, but they have shown more signs of life in these last two weeks than they did at any point in 2023.
Jackson, Phillips ruled OUT for Thursday Night Football
New York’s defense has a tough task in front of them on Thursday Night Football, with CB Adoree’ Jackson and CB Dru Phillips both ruled out. Jackson has played limited snaps this season, but the former 1st round draft pick ended Week 3 ranked 20th out of 102 cornerbacks in coverage grade, per PFF. Phillips has only been healthy enough to play one full game but has been outstanding in the slot when he’s been on the field, ranking 4th best at his position in coverage grade.
An injury-ravaged secondary unit only further complicates matters for a Giants defense that has struggled against the run as well. Only the Cowboys and Raiders have been worse in defensive adjusted line yards than the Giants. New York’s run defense ranks 19th in EPA/play and 19th in success rate after 3 games, despite a relatively easy schedule of opponents.
Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction
Dallas has dominated this head-to-head series in recent seasons, winning each of the last 6 meetings. Daniel Jones also has a history of underperforming under the bright lights, with a 1-12 career record in primetime games. Trends bettors shouldn’t be conflicted in any way as far as a side goes.
That being said, the Giants offense has shown some signs of life, and Dallas’ defense has been torched in both of their games that didn’t come against Deshaun Watson. The Cowboys and Giants will be missing four starting cornerbacks between them, which bodes well for Prescott and Jones. Both of these teams rank in the top half of the league in pace through the first three weeks of the season as well. The Giants could benefit from an even higher rate of no-huddle, given the Cowboys’ lack of quality depth on the defensive side of the ball.
Both of these offenses should be able to move the football against underwhelming, injury-plagued defenses. The Giants should be able to do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game competitive. Building a custom Same Game Parlay could prove worthwhile to begin Week 4.
PICK: Giants +10, Over 37 – Same Game Parlay (-115, DraftKings)
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