Daily Batter Breakdown: Thursday, June 18th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-22 14:22:32

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Buster Posey
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.293	0.841	4.19%	0.367
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.304	0.819	0.00%	0.363
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – Left		0.183	0.489	1.66%	0.219
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.782	0.000	$3,600	$8,900	$4,300	$77,200

Buster Posey

To be honest, there are not a lot of slam dunk hitter plays in this night session on Thursday. Buster Posey could be the best one of the bunch as he goes up against Mike Montgomery, a lefty whose stats have been all over the place. I really am not targeting the pitcher as much as using Posey’s splits in our favor; he has a .405 career wOBA and 164 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Posey is an elite hitter against lefties and is one of the top plays on the day.

		Lucas Duda
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.265	0.886	5.91%	0.382
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.348	0.907	0.00%	0.381
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT		0.225	0.699	2.39%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.911	0.000	$3,300	$8,900	$4,300	$67,800

Lucas Duda

There will be a couple of first basemen plays, but that is what happens when you get a short slate with not a lot of good matchups. Duda is still in the Rogers Centre, and despite his struggles yesterday, he still maintains a .366 career wOBA and is on pace for one of the the better seasons of his career. He needs to pick it up though and should be able to against Dickey, who is always solid to target when pitching in Toronto.

		Adam Lind
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.335	0.929	3.49%	0.401
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.269	0.629	0.00%	0.284
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.305	0.872	4.74%	0.381
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.874	0.000	$2,500	$7,500	$4,000	$60,400

Adam Lind

We talked a bit about Lind’s proficiency against righties in the last batter breakdown, but I will reiterate it here. He has a .369 career wOBA with a .371 mark this year and a .410 mark in the previous year. Guthrie has been known to give it up to lefties and is one of the worst pitchers to toe the mound on a regular basis. I would never feel safe with Guthrie on the mound and I love Lind’s price and his potential today, despite Milwaukee’s poor overall offense.

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.301	0.810	2.37%	0.349
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.185	0.501	0.00%	0.226
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Vogelsong – RIGHT		0.285	0.831	3.73%	0.363
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.782	0.000	$2,200	$6,600	$3,500	$50,500

Robinson Cano

We have heard a bit about Cano not being a viable fantasy play lately, but let me bring you to today. Yes, Cano is awful this year, but he is also underperforming compared to his career numbers in a way which will never be duplicated. This season will be bad, but he will recover from a .284 BABIP and a wOBA that is 100 points lower. What better time than now? Vogelsong has a 4.89 xFIP against lefties with a .414 wOBA allowed this year. Cano has the ability, and this is as good of a matchup as any.

		Scooter Gennett
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.296	0.772	2.15%	0.333
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.364	1.028	4.55%	0.441
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.305	0.872	4.74%	0.381
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.874	0.000	$2,400	$5,000	$3,400	$43,300

Scooter Gennett

Gennett has been one of my favorite fantasy plays since the beginning of last year. He has a .354 wOBA against RHP, and even though he is having a poor year, we can chalk it up to a bad BABIP and small sample size still at this point. Guthrie? We cannot really chalk up his bad performance against lefties to sample size. He continuously has an xFIP close to 5 against lefties and has a .431 wOBA allowed to lefties this year. He is a clear target today, even though the Brewers are a terrible offense.

		Kyle Seager
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.276	0.829	4.96%	0.360
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.269	0.824	7.69%	0.346
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Vogelsong – RIGHT		0.285	0.831	3.73%	0.363
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.782	0.000	$3,200	$8,550	$3,700	$70,300

Kyle Seager

I talked a bit above about how Cano should rebound and how Vogelsong has been terrible against lefties. Enter Kyle Seager, our favorite two-HR maestro when no one has him. He certainly will be highly owned today because of Vogelsong’s inability to get lefties out and Seager’s .350 career wOBA against them. Seager really does hit righties for power and this is a great matchup for the Seattle lefties. Vogelsong is not good – can the Mariners take advantage?

		Wilmer Flores
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.265	0.708	3.49%	0.308
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.280	0.887	4.00%	0.378
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT		0.246	0.745	4.36%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.911	0.000	$2,900	$7,200	$3,800	$69,900

Wilmer Flores

There are basically no solid shortstops today in this night slate. I like Flores because he has been hot lately and has proven his power, with seven homers against righties this year. Dickey has not been great against either side and he really does not have the ability to get his knuckler moving in the dome. Flores should have a solid chance to homer here and that is what I am looking for in this weak SS pool.

		Anthony Gose
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.270	0.694	0.85%	0.311
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.273	0.652	0.00%	0.294
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Leake – RIGHT		0.280	0.799	3.61%	0.349
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.134	0.000	$2,600	$6,500	$3,700	$57,800

Anthony Gose

Leake does not have a bad xFIP against lefties, but he has allowed a .343 wOBA against them, which is right on par with his season average. Gose only plays against righties in the Tigers platoon system, but he owns a .333 wOBA with SB ability and some power. Gose is red hot here and should be used at the top of a potent Tigers offense that has gotten it together in the last week or so. Gose’s BABIP worries me, but he is still cheap across the industry and is worth taking a flier on in this low scoring slate.

		Andrew McCutchen
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.313	0.937	4.11%	0.403
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.348	0.836	0.00%	0.366
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Samardzija – RIGHT		0.236	0.658	2.55%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.783	0.000	$4,600	$10,000	$4,800	$88,100

Andrew McCutchen

Cutch is on some sort of roll right now and is still cheaper than Marte across the industry. Samardzija is a great pitcher, but Cutch had a .415 wOBA last year against righties and is just hitting his stride here. He has a .213 ISO this year, meaning the power is there and that he had not been connecting with his other hits. I love his matchup but would love it even more if he was facing a lefty.

		Brett Gardner
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.264	0.782	3.14%	0.344
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.130	0.396	0.00%	0.19
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Latos – RIGHT		0.265	0.682	1.47%	0.301
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.157	0.000	$3,700	$9,100	$4,100	$77,000

Brett Gardner

While Ellsbury has been on the shelf, Gardner has held up his end of the bargain. He does his damage with speed and power, and despite a lacking .337 wOBA he has some power, with a .131 career ISO, and SB ability. He faces a guy in Latos who has been less than good this year with a .369 wOBA allowed to lefties, and while he is still trying to bring it down, Gardner will be underowned at the top of a high scoring offense.