Daily Batter Breakdown: Tue, Apr 8th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-04-08 17:58:36

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

What a huge night for fantasy baseball. Over on DraftKings, you have the 400k Walk-off which is awarding 100k to one competitor tonight and also a $10 dollar DFBC qualifier over on FanDuel. We also have the “special” announcement from DraftKings coming on GrindersLive tonight so watch out for that – my guess is it’s their end of season baseball championship. Only unfortunate thing about tonight is that there is a game at Coors Field so there will be a ton of players used from that game.

		Wilin Rosario
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.323	0.901	5.38%	0.389
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.294	0.793	0.00%	0.35
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Quintana – LEFT			0.242	0.679	6.48%	0.304
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,500	$6,679	$9,400	$4,000	$71,600	$6,400	$10,300

Wilin Rosario

If Rosario makes his way into the lineup tonight, it’s going to be extremely hard to find anything wrong with this matchup. In the last 3 years he has brutalized left handed pitching with an OPS of 1.016 and has a much better homer rate against them. He also hits better at home, and where is he tonight? Coors Field. The pitching matchup isn’t 100% great as Quintana has been fairly effective in his career however he has never faced the ridiculousness of Coors Field and I’m expecting a harsh welcome by the Rockies. He’s expensive, but not horribly so that it cripples your roster.

		Jose Abreu
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.304	0.911	18.57%	0.423
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,200	$7,749	$11,300	$3,900	$25,000	$7,200	$10,200

Jose Abreu

I really like Abreu tonight if he is in the starting lineup. Make sure that he is because I am expecting Abreu to sit at some point in this series without the DH. If he isn’t playing, plug in Adam Dunn or Paul Konerko into this spot as fairly cheap solid 1st basemen (Dunn only for GPPS). Abreu hasn’t been great away from home yet this year, but it’s been a terribly small sample. The kid has a lot of talent, isn’t very expensive, and is hitting in the most hitter-friendly park against a pitcher I don’t have that much confidence in in Morales. The over/under on this game is the highest of the night as usual and I would be extremely shocked if we didn’t see more than 4 runs from the White Sox tonight.

		Anthony Rendon
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.253	0.682	1.20%	0.301
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.391	1	4.35%	0.44
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Alvarez – RIGHT			0.206	0.509	5.69%	0.239
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.013	1.013	$3,200	$5,702	$7,550	$3,700	$64,500	$5,500	$9,100

Anthony Rendon

Rendon comes into this game getting extra playing time because of Ryan Zimmerman inflammation. I expect them to sit Zim for a few more games giving Rendon time at 3rd or 2nd wherever he plays. He’s fairly cheap and has been very good so far this season mashing everything he sees and is on the top list of breakout candidates. He’s definitely affordable everywhere and should be hitting at the top of the lineup for a team that has one of the highest over/unders of the night. Even better is he is facing Henderson Alvarez who was completely lit up in Marlins Park by a Rockies offense. I really like Rendon’s price point and upside in this one.

		David Wright
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.296	0.836	3.86%	0.363
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.238	0.701	4.76%	0.314
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Harang – RIGHT			0.276	0.778	6.78%	0.343
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.956	0.932	$4,000	$7,867	$11,250	$4,300	$88,000	$8,000	$11,000

David Wright

Is this real? Are we seriously going to see an Aaron Harang Colon(player-profile)”:/players/Bartolo_Colon-10702 matchup tonight between the Braves and the Mets? This just seems so wrong. You cannot convince me that Harang is a good starter in the majors and is worth rostering, and on the flip side I expect Wright/Granderson/Davis/Duda to do some work against him. It’s still a very small sample size but Wright is 11/21 off Harang with 5 XBH and even though he had a solid start last time out you cannot get me to trust the 35 year old Harangatang. I like any of the lefties for the Mets but I also like Wright to have a solid game and he makes a nice cash game play.

		Ian Desmond
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.280	0.789	3.44%	0.344
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.250	0.782	8.33%	0.332
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Alvarez – RIGHT			0.206	0.509	5.69%	0.239
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.013	1.013	$3,700	$6,026	$9,400	$4,000	$73,400	$6,700	$8,800

Ian Desmond

I am jumping back to the Nationals with this one as I did not want to put Troy Tulowitzki in this spot as he is probably the most obvious pick of the night. I’m sure he is going to be wildly owned as he brings the highest upside of anyone at shortstop except for maybe Desmond. Ian Desmond is a little bit cheaper than Tulo, and while he certainly doesn’t have the consistency or the consistent upside, he does have the ability for multiple homers in the same game and is facing Alvarez at home in what should be a fairly high scoring game for the Nationals. It increases your chances of winning a GPP to fade the most popular pick, especially in baseball, and that’s why I like Desmond here.

		Michael Brantley
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.288	0.757	2.36%	0.331
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.375	0.858	0.00%	0.382
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ross – RIGHT			0.252	0.689	9.64%	0.323
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.933	0.992	$3,000	$6,184	$8,450	$3,600	$68,200	$6,800

Michael Brantley

I have been touting Brantley for the early part of this season now, and while he hasn’t been a great GPP play, he has definitely proved his worth in cash games. He continues to be one of the cheaper outfield plays, and hits in a pretty nice Cleveland offense which should be able to put up some runs today. He faces a right hander in Ross who struggled a bit in his opener and struggles against left handed batters in general. Brantley is really seeing the ball well and even though he isn’t a huge homer threat, he does hit all of his homers off right handed pitching and is one of the safer plays out there.

		Avisail Garcia
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.219	0.640	2.74%	0.278
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.150	0.377	0.00%	0.187
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.304	0.911	18.57%	0.423
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$2,700	$4,286	$7,850	$3,800	$58,400	$5,800	$8,700

Avisail Garcia

I watched Mini-Miggy for a while when he played with the Tigers and I was really impressed with his game; I couldn’t believe when they dealt him in that big trade to the White Sox, but they did need a shortstop at the time. Garcia is ridiculously cheap across the industry for a guy who is going to be hitting in the dead middle of the White Sox lineup. If you go with Abreu, it’s certainly an option to stack up Garcia with the other guys in the White Sox lineup. He has traditionally struggled a little bit more against left handers, but his major league history is still young and we’re in Coors Field here.

		Jose Bautista
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.910	7.61%	0.390
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.227	1.05	13.64%	0.452
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Oberholtzer – LEFT			0.219	0.617	5.29%	0.271
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$4,800	$7,609	$13,350	$5,000	$87,400	$9,000	$11,900

Jose Bautista

We will end with a couple of Blue Jays here who along with the Nationals, and White Sox are my favorite teams to target today. The over under for the Jays against Oberholtzer is set at 4.5 which is the highest on the board and if you follow fantasy baseball you know about the Rogers Centre’s proclivity to give up the home run ball. Certainly Encarnacion is in play but I like Bautista in the outfield who gives 2 HR upside. Oberholtzer has never pitched in a dome, and while he’s been somewhat effective as a pitcher I’m still going to target him until he really proves that he can hold down a power bat lineup.

		Jeff Baker
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.314	1.073	9.52%	0.452
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.214	0.686	0.00%	0.329
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gonzalez – LEFT			0.239	0.692	10.63%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.013	1.013	$2,400	$4,112	$7,400	$2,000	$44,100	$3,000	$6,000

Jeff Baker

Jeff Baker continues to be ridiculously priced and is always a good fill in guy when he hits at the top of the lineup against a left hander. I think not many people will be on him because of the matchup with Gio today, but I still really like him if you need a cheap filler for a stack or need to save salary somewhere. Baker always loves hitting against left handed pitching and I’m really not confident in where Gonzalez’ strength is at after catching the bug that has been going around. Even if Baker for some reason does go 0/4, I really don’t feel bad in picking him today.

		Melky Cabrera
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.253	0.595	1.01%	0.265
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.323	0.935	9.68%	0.411
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Oberholtzer – LEFT			0.219	0.617	5.29%	0.271
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$3,200	$7,378	$7,950	$3,900	$64,100	$7,100	$8,100

Melky Cabrera

Melky has been a beast filling in at the top of the order for the injured Jose Reyes. I noted above my dislike for Oberholtzer, and it just so happens that Melky absolutely rakes against left handed pitching with an .840 OPS in the last 3 years and the same amount of homers against left handed pitching as right handed pitching with 1/2 the at bats. I have no doubt he can go deep again today and his bargain price still makes this play a really attractive play that not many people will own today.