Daily Batter Breakdown: Tue, April 1st

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-04-01 20:17:41

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

Not a huge slate of games today because of everyone playing yesterday, but things will correct themselves and Tuesday will prove to be one of the biggest fantasy days for MLB during the season. Most everyone’s games start at 6:40 today to include the Dodgers/Padres game so make sure you are aware of that. Always in baseball make sure you check starting lineups before plugging these guys in; while I would expect them to play, nothing is guaranteed.

Throughout the first week we will slowly get worse and worse in the pitcher department which in theory should make the batting scores go up, so picking the right matchups becomes even more important.

Daily Hitter Breakdown

		Buster Posey
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.320	0.891	2.61%	0.379
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.267	0.81	0.00%	0.369
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Miley – LEFT			0.259	0.727	8.68%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	1.044	$4,000	$7,671	$11,050	$4,100	$83,000	$6,800	$9,900

Buster Posey

Posey is in my opinion the best catcher option on the board tonight, and isn’t even the most expensive on a couple of sites. He has massacred left handed pitching in his career with a career OPS .033 and most of his homers coming off left handed pitching. Arizona threw out a right hander last night which hurt his value a little yesterday however he still managed to make value with a late homer. He is in one of the highest over/under games of the night facing a pitcher he has dominated previously in the middle of the Giants lineup against the side that he demolishes. His price is very affordable as well in most spots.

		Jeff Baker
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.314	1.073	9.52%	0.452
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.250	0.821	0.00%	0.423
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Anderson – LEFT			0.281	0.755	10.53%	0.341
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$2,200	$3,841	$7,400	$2,700	$44,700	$4,200	$6,200

Jeff Baker

Baker was a solid play last night against the lefty De La Rosa and did not do much. I would expect him to draw another start as a lefty specialist when Anderson takes the mound today. Baker’s price actually dropped in a few places and his ability to hit left handed pitching really helps. Baker’s .838 OPS against lefties in the past few years is much too high for a guy priced as a bottom of the barrel guy who will be hitting 2nd or 4th in the lineup protected by Stanton. Don’t worry about his poor performance yesterday, keep rolling him out against lefties and he will pay off his number.

		Ben Zobrist
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.287	0.812	2.70%	0.358
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.345	0.87	3.45%	0.372
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hutchison – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.976	$3,500	$7,053	$9,750	$3,900	$75,300	$6,700	$9,100

Ben Zobrist

After taking out Dickey, the Rays now set their sights on 23 year old Drew Hutchison who had a pretty solid spring and is making the Jays #2 start. Vegas has set this game as pretty big Rays favorites so they are not too high on Hutchison today. Most of the top 2nd basemen have fairly poor matchups today so I would either look to punt the position or use Zobrist. Zobrist has always been skilled at drawing walks and getting on base any way he can and this game should be no different. He scores a lot of runs because he does so many positive things and will hardly get you a negative score. Zobrist is the safest play at 2nd base today in my opinion.

		David Freese
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.257	0.689	1.46%	0.311
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.111	0.644	11.11%	0.279
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ramirez – RIGHT			0.254	0.734	5.74%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	1.066	$2,900	$5,497	$8,400	$3,600	$58,200	$4,600	$6,900

David Freese

Just like with 2nd basemen, I struggled with finding a solid 3rd baseman at the top of the salary table that had a good matchup. Freese had a terrible opener with the Angels and his price dropped as such. He is a bargain on almost every site for a guy with his power and he also has a better matchup with Erasmo Ramirez than he did with King Felix. Freese is better against lefties but at this discount should be able to make for a fairly safe play against Ramirez as I am expecting a rebound game from the Angels after they got clocked by Seattle on Opening Day.

		Jacoby Ellsbury
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.328	0.863	1.91%	0.373
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.273	0.879	9.09%	0.381
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Feldman – RIGHT			0.235	0.656	7.01%	0.299
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.074	1.035	$4,400	$8,136	$11,950	$4,700	$83,800	$8,200	$10,300

Jacoby Ellsbury

It’s hard to ignore the upside that Ellsbury is going to get you today. The Yankees play at Minute Maid and have one of the highest over/unders of the day. Feldman isn’t a great pitcher and he allowed a bunch of stolen bases last year without catching many. Ellsbury likes to run when given the opportunity and in a game where he should be able to get on base with relative ease, his speed on the bags is going to help. Ellsbury is expensive, but should give you the GPP upside and H2H floor that you are looking for in both. Feldman is somewhat interesting in that he pitches to both right handers and left handers with the same amount of success but Ellsbury definitely hits right handers better.

		Michael Brantley
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.276	0.664	0.57%	0.296
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.370	0.911	3.70%	0.399
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kazmir – LEFT			0.226	0.573	3.43%	0.253
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.889	0.931	$3,000	$4,920	$8,450	$3,400	$67,200	$6,000	$8,600

Michael Brantley

Brantley has to be the hottest hitter on the planet right now and I am not one to shy away from an on fire hitter when they have a plus matchup. Brantley hit .500 in Spring over 50 at bats with a 1.292 OPS even though he didn’t hit a homer. Spring Training stats are generally meaningless but to hit .500 over 50 at bats you really have to be locked in. Brantley is more than affordable on most sites, and has a matchup against Scott Kazmir who struggles against right handed batters. Brantley’s history of not hitting well against lefties is a bit concerning here however his hitting 5th in what should be a fairly potent offense brings a lot of RBI opportunities for him.

		Giancarlo Stanton
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.278	1.006	8.33%	0.426
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.200	0.488	0.00%	0.22
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Anderson – LEFT			0.281	0.755	10.53%	0.341
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$4,400	$6,530	$11,900	$4,300	$78,400	$7,900	$10,100

Giancarlo Stanton

It’s hard to ignore Stanton again today. Miami gets to face another left hander in Anderson, and most everything that applied yesterday applies today. Stanton’s price did not rise all that much and he is still one of the most powerful hitters in the game. Vegas has this one set as almost a pick’em so they must believe in Anderson more than I do. I think this Marlins lineup is confident right now and should be able to produce against Anderson especially with Stanton as the cog.

		Jean Segura
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.317	0.865	2.82%	0.373
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.000	0	0.00%	0
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wood – LEFT			0.261	0.685	8.77%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.037	$4,000	$4,864	$10,250	$4,100	$68,000	$7,100	$9,300

Jean Segura

Segura is more of a DraftStreet play in my mind as his price there is just ridiculous. He is hitting at the top of a Brewers lineup who should be able to score runs against Wood today, is a proven threat on the basepaths and he has Ryan Braun hitting behind him. Segura may not be a household name but he is an extremely solid player an a fantasy asset. I wouldn’t say he is priced out 100% on the other sites but I am not sure how you don’t roster him on DraftStreet today under 5k.

		Ryan Braun
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.368	1.053	3.95%	0.449
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wood – LEFT			0.261	0.685	8.77%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.037	$4,400	$8,980	$11,850	$5,000	$86,900	$9,400	$10,800

Ryan Braun

If you are using Segura today, don’t hesitate to stack him with Braun and even Aramis Ramirez. This is still should be one of the highest scoring games on the slate tonight and the Brewers love hitting at Miller Park. Braun’s return from suspension is the only concern I have at this point, but Braun has absolutely rocked left handed pitching in the past posting a 1.118 OPS and 28 homers in 342 at bats. He’s expensive, but if the Brewers go nuts you really need to have him as he will put up a ton of points.

		Shin-Soo Choo
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.317	1.011	5.41%	0.438
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.267	0.821	0.00%	0.372
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Burnett – RIGHT			0.263	0.711	11.39%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.002	$4,000	$7,547	$12,050	$4,300	$77,400	$7,700	$10,000

Shin-Soo Choo

It’s incredibly silly to use Choo against a left hander, and the entire DFS world understands that finally. Choo gets to face off against a righty in Burnett today and Vegas really loves the Rangers tying them with the Yankees for the top overall over/under today. It doesn’t matter the right hander, Choo has a good shot at getting them, and leading off in Globe Life Park should really boost his fantasy value. He is expensive, so be careful, but he definitely has a solid matchup and I think he can pay off his value especially if he hits a leadoff dinger which he has been known to do against righties.