Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, July 21st

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-07-23 23:05:59

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

The Coors Field game again has a 11 run over/under tonight, and a lot of players involved be very highly owned. They will all be solid plays, but we will try to look at some other, lower owned options.

		Josh Phegley
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.301	0.949	8.22%	0.407
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Buehrle – LEFT		0.278	0.731	1.72%	0.319
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.972	0.000	$3,000	$5,700	$3,200	$48,600

Josh Phegley

With Jaso’s price jump, and most catchers facing their poor same-handed counterparts, I think Phegley makes a solid GPP gamble tonight. He has a .404 wOBA against left-handed pitching, and while Buehrle is a pretty boring pitcher (never really gets blown up, never really has a great game), Phegley should be able to take advantage of him in at least one of his at-bats. Considering the price for Phegley and his numbers against lefties, he should be considered if he is in the lineup.

		Anthony Rizzo
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.281	0.918	6.04%	0.394
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.607	0.00%	0.287
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Iglesias – RIGHT		0.348	0.832	0.00%	0.370
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.212	0.000	$3,800	$10,650	$5,000	$88,000

Anthony Rizzo

Back on the Rizzo train tonight. I think he has one of the best chances to hit a homer of the night against Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias, while not allowing a homer this year in a small sample, has to pitch in hitter friendly Great American (a park that likes left-landers) and his .370 wOBA allowed doesn’t bode well against one of the top hitters in the game. Rizzo has a .394 wOBA with 14 of his 16 homers on the year; while he is expensive, he is also a great cash game play since he walks a lot and scores runs.

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.303	0.832	3.05%	0.358
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.273	1.152	18.18%	0.481
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Greene – RIGHT		0.313	0.876	2.56%	0.381
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.986	0.000	$3,200	$8,400	$3,900	$63,500

Robinson Cano

Is Cano back? Nah, probably not, as he has just had a few really solid matchups to abuse. Greene’s numbers are eerily similar to Simon’s (Cano homered last night), and with his .420 wOBA allowed to left-handers and Cano’s awesome career numbers against right-handed pitching, this seems like a no-brainer at second base if you are not using Jose Altuve, discussed below. Cano’s price is so much cheaper than he usually is, and this could be the start of him really breaking through with the bat.

		Jose Altuve
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.380	0.950	2.33%	0.408
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.308	0.896	0.00%	0.383
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Johnson – LEFT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.910	0.000	$4,300	$8,450	$4,500	$81,400

Jose Altuve

Brian Johnson makes his debut for the Red Sox tonight, and while he has posted solid numbers in the minors, the majors is a different story. The Astros are one of the bigger favorites on the night and hitting in a hitter’s park at home has their over/under at a nice spot today. It is not Coors Field nice, but it is nice enough to grab Altuve, who has a .365 wOBA against lefties, a number which is most likely below his real number. Altuve will hit at the top of the lineup and is always a threat to steal. If you can afford him and do not want Cano, go for it.

		Kyle Seager
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.272	0.818	4.88%	0.355
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	1.167	16.67%	0.497
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Greene – RIGHT		0.313	0.876	2.56%	0.381
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.986	0.000	$2,800	$9,000	$4,200	$71,300

Kyle Seager

I will roll with my boy Seager again tonight, even though he is expensive on DraftKings. Seager hits right-handers well, and with him being at the top of the lineup again, I really like a mini-stack of the Mariners solid lefty hitters against Shane Greene. Greene started out the season on fire, which makes his .420 wOBA against lefties even that much worse. Greene is a Simon clone in the fact that in the last four games he has allowed at least four earned runs in all with some seven earned run bangers in there. The Tigers’ back-end pitching and bullpen are a mess right now, and is easily targeted.

		Carlos Correa
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD

Carlos Correa

After a couple of weeks in the dumpster, Correa has re-emerged like a phoenix in the last few days, hitting the ball with reckless abandon. His price is up, but he faces Brian Johnson tonight in a solid matchup against one of the Red Sox’ solid pitching prospects. Vegas still has the Astros as solid favorites with a good over/under tonight, which is why I love Correa, who has a .434 wOBA and a 182 wRC+ since joining the majors.

		J.D. Martinez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.305	0.894	5.83%	0.384
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.167	0.583	8.33%	0.249
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Walker – RIGHT		0.247	0.719	4.04%	0.317
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.986	0.000	$4,200	$9,400	$4,600	$78,100

J.D. Martinez

J.D. continues to be one of the lower priced stud outfielders, and his name continues to roll under the radar when talking about the best OFs in the game like Trout and Harper. However, Martinez has consistently had a high probability of hitting a bomb in props, and he has been statistically a top three outfielder for the entire season. Walker has not been good in his last two games and is struggling a bit more against righties than lefties (.346 wOBA), I love Martinez to hit one out here; he has a .389 wOBA and a .289 ISO against right-handed pitching this year and has really improved his approach overall.

		Jeff Francoeur
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.258	0.770	5.00%	0.330
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Karns – RIGHT		0.211	0.698	5.63%	0.304
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.945	0.000	$2,700	$6,050	$2,500	$50,400

Jeff Francoeur

Still searching for value to play guys like Correa and Martinez along with some Coors guys, Frenchie’s name comes up. His $2,700 price tag on FanDuel is not extremely attractive, but at $2,500 on DraftKings, he can really open up some doors for you if you punt an OF spot. Francoeur is not a good hitter, but in over 100 ABs this year against RHP he has managed a solid .359 wOBA with six HR. He has been hitting the ball extremely well lately and is somewhat of a streaky hitter. Karns has allowed nine of his 11 homers to right-handed pitching this year, and with Francoeur generally in the middle of the Phillies lineup, you could do a lot worse.

		Kirk Nieuwenhuis
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.230	0.769	3.45%	0.329
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gibson – RIGHT		0.253	0.686	1.22%	0.306
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.785	0.000	$2,200	$5,000	$2,000	$35,000

Kirk Nieuwenhuis

There is no guarantee that Kirk will be in the lineup tonight, but at min salary on both sites, he makes for an extremely interesting punt play. His numbers this year are horrible except for his breakout three-HR game where everyone was just confused. The thing is, however, he has a history of hitting right-handers extremely well. He had a .361 wOBA last year in over 100 at-bats, so despite the fact that he is struggling this year I still think there is power in that bat that can be utilized for fantasy. If you are looking to stack Coors, he is a solid gamble, and if you want a huge pitcher you could do worse than punting an OF spot for Kirk against Joe Ross.

		Seth Smith
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.264	0.804	3.08%	0.352
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Greene – RIGHT		0.313	0.876	2.56%	0.381
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.986	0.000	$2,300	$6,950	$3,300	$50,700

Seth Smith

We’re looking for value to fit the Coors Field guys on our teams, especially due to the fact that there are not a lot of slam dunk options tonight outside of Coors. Smith gets to face a righty in Greene like I talked about earlier, and he has struggled against left-handed hitters this year. I will not beat a dead horse, but Smith has a career .360 wOBA and a .203 ISO, and with numbers similar to that this year, he has proven he can hit righties as well. Seattle likes to bat him at the top of the lineup when he plays and this Tigers/Mariners game is looking like the second best bet for runs.