Daily Batter Breakdown: Wed, May 14th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-05-14 22:02:01

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

I am only profiling the night games on the Batter Breakdown today, and they bring an interesting dynamic. There are 4 games that should be high-scoring and good to target hitters, and 4 games that should be low-scoring and ones to grab pitchers from. I feel like certain guys are going to be somewhat highly owned tonight especially in double ups.

		Jason Castro
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.268	0.834	4.47%	0.361
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.174	0.478	4.35%	0.208
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Tepesch – RIGHT			0.297	0.815	5.22%	0.367
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.074	1.035	$3,000	$4,704	$6,300	$3,900	$54,300	$5,300	$8,000

Jason Castro

Castro got the night off against a lefty after a terrible performance in a game which he had a great matchup and didn’t perform. His price is still at extremely low levels and he has a solid matchup tonight with Tepesch who started last year in the majors but this year finally has made it back. I am nowhere near confident in the guy and think Castro should have a nice game as most of his miserable numbers come off of left handed pitching. Tepesch has struggled to keep lefties off the bases and in the park, giving up 10 of his 12 HR versus lefties. Astros stack anyone?

		Nick Swisher
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.221	0.678	3.10%	0.303
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.250	0.804	0.00%	0.372
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		McGowan – RIGHT			0.233	0.726	12.77%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.045	$2,700	$5,593	$8,450	$3,800	$62,400	$5,400	$8,400

Nick Swisher

I like Swisher as a value option today against the Jays and McGowan as he is extemely cheap wherever you look. He hasn’t been having a good season, but those numbers are still a bit under what I would expect season-long salaries to be. I really like his matchup in Rogers Centre against McGowan as Dustin has been absolutely horrible at home this year. It makes sense as Rogers Centre is one of the most hitter friendly parks in MLB and is very homer-friendly. This is the highest over/under game of the night, and I think again the Indians’ hitters have value.

		Jose Altuve
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.272	0.654	0.53%	0.287
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.379	0.937	0.00%	0.411
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Tepesch – RIGHT			0.239	0.639	8.47%	0.294
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.074	1.017	$3,200	$7,465	$8,800	$4,400	$75,700	$7,400	$10,800

Jose Altuve

As noted above, it’s Tepesch against the Astros and the Astros are actually decently favored in this game. There is a bit of a disclaimer about this pick however as Altuve and Tepesch are usually good against their same handed counterparts so I wouldn’t use Altuve simply by himself, however if you are pairing him with the other guys in the Houston lineup for a sneaky stack tonight I might do it. To me, he’s a GPP option in a Houston stack but if you have a Houston stack or mini-stack I think you almost have to have him.

		Brett Lawrie
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.256	0.725	3.29%	0.319
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.333	1.833	33.33%	0.701
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kluber – RIGHT			0.265	0.683	3.95%	0.307
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$3,200	$6,145	$8,650	$3,800	$73,800	$6,400	$10,600

Brett Lawrie

Kluber can be absolutely dominant at times, but he is extremely up and down which he has proven so far this year. He’s been great at home and less than average away, and today he has an extremely tough away game at Rogers Centre. Lawrie has usually hit right handers better than left, and with Kluber dealing with Bautista and Encarnacion today I think that Lawrie will see a bunch of good stuff to hit tonight. This game still has one of the higher over/unders of tonight and I think Lawrie is a solid gamble.

		Jean Segura
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.293	0.797	2.44%	0.345
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.222	0.485	0.00%	0.224
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Liriano – LEFT			0.248	0.698	10.91%	0.314
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.037	$3,000	$5,989	$8,950	$3,700	$56,800	$6,500	$7,400

Jean Segura

Segura is cheap because he hasn’t been very good this year, but neither has Liriano. Liriano will go on hot streaks where he looks unbeatable and impossible to hit, but will also go on very average streaks where he isn’t very good. He has always been able to crush left handed hitters but has always struggled to get out right-handers which is what the entire Brewers lineup is tonight. I’m expecting Segura to get plenty of chances to knock people in tonight and I’m not worried about his struggles against lefties this year just yet.

		Michael Brantley
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.288	0.772	2.73%	0.338
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.375	1.153	8.33%	0.493
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		McGowan – RIGHT			0.233	0.726	12.77%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.045	$3,600	$9,358	$9,200	$4,900	$104,800	$7,500	$13,600

Michael Brantley

Brantley’s struggles in the last game aren’t enough to throw me off of him tonight. He’s still been limiting his strikeouts and is showing a lot of extra power. I am really not a fan of McGowan inside Rogers Centre and I really like the Indians today. I expect some people will be wary of his 0/4 last night but that stuff happens from time to time and I am expecting him to bounce back strong against a right hander that will have his hands full with all of the lefties in the Cleveland lineup.

		Brett Gardner
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.277	0.752	1.81%	0.334
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.348	1.009	4.35%	0.434
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montero – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.867	0.885	$3,700	$7,908	$8,650	$4,000	$73,800	$7,600	$9,000

Brett Gardner

Gardner’s price has risen sky-high but one thing is still true – he has scored a run in 7 straight games and just knows how to get to home plate with the big bats hitting behind him. Montero is definitely a great prospect but will be making his MLB debut, and I am expecting a few jitters in the first at bat and the first game in general. Gardner hasn’t been stealing as much as he probably should but he leads off and isn’t going to break the bank along with being extremely hot at the plate. Ellsbury is a good choice as well, especially if he’s cheaper than Gardner.

		Jose Bautista
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.262	0.860	5.81%	0.376
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.357	0.867	3.57%	0.374
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kluber – RIGHT			0.265	0.683	3.95%	0.307
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$4,600	$8,750	$12,600	$5,400	$92,800	$9,000	$13,900

Jose Bautista

I guess I really don’t believe in Kluber today. I know he has great stuff and his other numbers say that he is solid but I just don’t see him having a great game against the Jays lineup. He should rack up the strikeouts but I think he could get into some longball trouble against the Jays in this one, and who better to hit them than Bautista? Bautista doesn’t care if you’re a right hander or left hander on the mound, he will homer off you no matter what.

		Brian McCann
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.247	0.781	5.72%	0.339
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.188	0.423	0.00%	0.198
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montero – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.867	0.885	$2,900	$5,635	$7,150	$3,500	$52,000	$5,600	$8,900

Brian McCann

Have we seen McCann break out of his slump? I’m hoping so. He’s much better than his prices all the way across the industry and he has 2 HR power. The Yankees are favored away from home even against the prospect Montero and I think the Yankees lefties will do a lot of damage tonight. McCann crushes right-handers and is hitting in the middle of the lineup tonight.

		Allen Craig
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.294	0.770	1.83%	0.341
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.316	0.907	5.26%	0.397
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hammel – RIGHT			0.228	0.616	4.31%	0.277
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.892	0.939	$2,700	$6,068	$9,350	$4,400	$69,300	$6,000	$7,600

Allen Craig

It amazes me how Craig’s salary continues to be extremely low even when he’s on a 5 game hit streak with multiple extra base hits in that time. Hammel has been solid against righties this year but over the last few years there hasn’t been much of a difference so there should be some regression in this years stats against right handers. Craig is a great hitter and definitely not a terrible play for how cheap he continues to be especially on FanDuel.