Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 2
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
For example, let’s take a look at the DraftKings Millionaire Maker from this past weekend. The second place finisher, beisel90, “lost” out on the $2 million 1st place prize by 0.38 points. When looking at his defensive choice, he only got six points from Minnesota. The winner, BALLAH, got 17 points from the Jets. If beisel90 would have selected any of the 14 defenses that scored seven or more DK points (not taking into account salary constraints) this week, he would have won the $2 million. That being said, I’m sure he isn’t too upset about a $1 million consolation prize. Another great example is the third place finisher, rjslomo, who nailed the top scoring defense of the week in the Carolina Panthers. If he even took another solid defense, the New York Jets, he would have lost four points off his final point total. The difference in winnings would have been $460,000!
As you can see, defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs. But even in cash games, you not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 1 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 1.
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.57
Other Defenses to Target: 7.75
All Favorites: 8.49
All Home Teams: 7.66
All Teams: 7.22
Week 1 Top Scoring Defenses: Carolina (21 pts), Seattle (19 pts), NY Jets (17 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had one hit and one big miss this past weekend. The New York Jets were my favorite defense of the week when considering salary, and they did not disappoint. Despite not getting the coveted defensive TD, the Jets still produced 17 fantasy points by forcing five turnovers and getting three sacks, while holding the Browns to 10 points. They were heavily used in both my cash game and GPP lineups this past weekend.
The big miss of the week was the Tampa Bay Bucs defense. I mentioned last week that there was risk with the Bucs simply because I did not think they had a very good defense. I thought they had upside facing a rookie QB in his first NFL start. Well I was half right, as there was upside in taking a defense facing a rookie QB, but the defense that fit the criteria was on the wrong side of this matchup. Mariota was great in his first start, but the Titans defense was able to produce 15 fantasy points facing the other rookie QB in this matchup, Jameis Winston.
My additional pick for the week was also solid in the Miami Dolphins. They produced 15 fantasy points due to forcing two Kirk Cousins interceptions, one of which they turned into a defensive TD. They also held the Redskins to only 10 points scored. The trend of taking defenses facing bad offenses continued as some of the top scoring defenses of the week faced the Jaguars, Browns, Bucs, Redskins and Raiders.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Carolina Panthers ($4700 FD, $3100 DK) – The Panthers are 3-point favorites with a total of 40.5. Of the three defenses that fit the criteria this week, I think the Panthers are the one that makes the most sense. This defense is very good and is coming off two turnovers and five sacks against the Jaguars. They face a Texans team this week that turned the ball over twice and allowed five sacks to the Chiefs in Week 1. The Texans also are not sure who their QB will be this week, with Brian Hoyer playing poorly and possibly getting replaced by Ryan Mallett. Either way, I like the Panthers here. They also should be lower owned as they are priced similarly to three teams we will get to later, making them a nice GPP option.
Minnesota Vikings ($4400 FD, $2800 DK) – The Vikings are 3-point favorites with a total of 43. If you read my NFC Defense Preview column, the Vikings were a defense I highlighted as one I thought could be very good this year. In Week 1, this wasn’t the case, as Carlos Hyde gashed them for a 168 yards (The Niners had 230 total rushing yards). So the first order of business this week will be slowing down Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell. If they can do that, Matthew Stafford showed in Week 1 that he can be turnover prone by throwing 2 interceptions versus the Chargers. I don’t love the Vikings this week, and I can’t really justify using them much on DK this week considering the price, but if you are looking for a little savings on FanDuel, I think they are one of the better options at their price point.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4200 FD, $2800 DK) – The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites with a total of 45. The Steelers remind me a little of the Tampa pick last week, which scares me. First, the Steelers do not have a very good defense, especially in the secondary. But I think they have two big things going for them this week. First, they have had 10 days of rest and they are playing at home. Second, the Niners are coming off a short week playing late on Monday night, and now have to travel across country for a 1 PM game on Sunday. If the Steelers can slow down Carlos Hyde, I think there is some upside here if they can force Kaepernick to beat them. Again, like the Vikings, I think they are a contrarian option this week.
Other Defenses to Target
Other than maybe the Panthers, this is the first week in a while where my personal favorite defenses are mainly going to be found in this section. The Vikings and Steelers both seem to be in good situations that “fit the criteria,” but I think they are mainly going to low owned, contrarian options this week. My three favorite defenses this week are:
St. Louis Rams ($4900 FD, $3100 DK)
Miami Dolphins ($5100 FD, $3300 DK)
Baltimore Ravens ($5000 FD, $2900 DK)
I am grouping these three defenses together this week as I think they are all in very similar situations. They would all fit the criteria if they were not on the road, as they are all favored by three or more with totals of 45 or less. They all face bad offenses this week with the Rams facing the Redskins, Dolphins facing the Jaguars, and Ravens facing the Raiders. The defenses that faced these three offenses in Week 1 all produced double digit fantasy points.
In building my lineups this week, I will likely start with the Rams on FanDuel and the Ravens on DraftKings as they are the cheapest option of the three on each respective site. But I will likely mix and match these three defenses across most of my lineups this week, with a few of the contrarian options mentioned above mixed in my GPP lineups. Overall, I think that one of the Rams, Dolphins, or Ravens should be in most cash game lineups this week, but they all make good GPP plays as well.