Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 3
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
That being said, Week 2 was not that week. I cannot remember a much stranger week in the NFL. This can be evidenced by the Survivor Pool I am in losing over 100 entries this week. There are only nine entries left after Week 2 (fortunately I had Pittsburgh on one of my entries this past week). The following teams all lost straight up as five-point favorites or greater: Saints, Rams, Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, Colts. I guess that is where the saying “that’s why they play the games” comes from. But in terms of defensive fantasy production for DFS purposes, this led to a disaster of a week. Fortunately, in cash games at least, much of the field was on the same group of defenses that failed to produce this week.
Week 2 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 2
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.60
Other Defenses to Target: 7.00
All Favorites: 8.43
All Home Teams: 7.56
All Teams: 7.16
Week 2 Top Scoring Defenses: Cleveland Browns (20 pts), Dallas Cowboys (19 pts), Arizona Cardinals (18 pts)
All things considered, the defense that fit the criteria was not terrible this week. Getting 4-8 points from a defense this week may have spotted you that many points against much of the field. Carolina was the one disappointment, producing only four fantasy points this past week. They were able to hold the Texans to only 17 points scored, but only forced one turnover and one sack. Both the Vikings and Steelers produced a solid but unspectacular eight fantasy points. Both teams held their opponents under 20 points scored, but did not get the elusive defensive TD to push their scores into the top group of defenses for the week.
My additional picks for Week 2 are where things went really badly. I don’t usually like to only highlight the “chalk” plays, but it just seemed like the Rams, Dolphins, and Ravens were all in good situations facing “bad” offenses and were too hard to ignore. But things didn’t go as planned as their opponents combined to score 84 points in Week 2, with the Ravens putting up the worst effort, allowing 37 points to the Raiders. Personally, I was on these three defenses exclusively in Week 2. I am just ready to move on from an overall disastrous Week 2 to Week 3.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Seattle ($5300 FD, $3400 DK) vs Chicago – Seattle is a 14.5 point favorite with a total of 43.5. This week we started with one of the lowest team totals you will see in the NFL. The Bears are only projected to score about 14-15 points this week. I think the Seahawks have a lot of things going for them this week that make them the top defense of the week. First, Jimmy Clausen will be starting for Chicago. Clausen is the owner of a career completion % of 53 with a TD to INT ratio of 5:11. The Seahawks also get Kam Chancellor back. I do not expect Kam Chancellor to start after missing so much time, but I think his overall presence and leadership can only be a good thing for a Seattle defense that struggled the first two weeks. Despite being the highest priced defense on the board, I think the Seahawks are safe to use in cash games and GPPs this week.
Houston ($5000 FD, $3200 DK) vs Tampa Bay – Houston is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. The second-lowest team total of the week belongs to the Tampa Bay Bucs with a team total of around 17. Jameis Winston was better in Week 2, but he’s had his share of struggles so far in his rookie season. Winston has turned the ball over three times and been sacked seven times in the first two weeks, with a completion percentage of just 55%. The Texans defense has not been great the first two weeks, but I do think they can bounce back here against a rookie QB who presents a lot of turnover potential. At a price point just below the Seahawks this week, I think they make a good, lower owned GPP option.
Arizona ($4700 FD, $3100 DK) vs San Francisco – Arizona is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 44. The Arizona defense has been very good so far this season, especially at stopping the run. Their pass defense numbers are a little skewed by them holding more than a TD-lead at many points in their first two games. Last week they even had a defensive and special teams TD. The Niners offense has been a little bit of an enigma so far. Carlos Hyde was very good in Week 1, but the entire offense struggled in Week 2 until the game was out of hand. With Hyde banged up, and the Cardinals’ strength against the run, I think the Cardinals are in a good spot to handle Colin Kaepernick in this game.
Cleveland ($4600 FD, $2900 DK) vs Oakland – Cleveland is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 42. This is a situation early in the season of trying to figure out which team will show up every week. The Raiders offense looked bad in Week 1 but then exploded in Week 2. The Browns defense wasn’t very good in Week 1 but had a great Week 2. The Raiders offense is better this year with the addition of Amari Cooper, but I think they still present upside for any defense facing them. The Raiders are also traveling cross country for a 1 PM game this week. I think the Browns make a nice GPP option at their price point.
Baltimore ($4600 FD, $2900 DK) vs Cincinnati – Baltimore is a 3-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Of all the defenses that fit the criteria this week, the Ravens are probably my least favorite. They actually played well in Week 1 to slow down the Broncos offense, but then they gave up 37 points to the Raiders last week. I also don’t love the matchup as Cincinnati is seventh in total offense through two games and are averaging 28 points per game. That being said, Andy Dalton has been worse on the road in his career. He’s also thrown a total of 37 interceptions over the last two seasons. Through two games this season, he has zero. I think there could be some interceptions in his future, and the Ravens could be in a situation to capitalize here. For me, they are just a GPP flier though.
Other Defense to Target
New York Jets ($4500 FD, $3000 DK) vs Philadelphia – As an Eagles fan, it pains me to put the Jets here, but the Eagles offense has been REALLY bad through two weeks. Through two weeks, they are a bottom seven team in both total offense and scoring offense. They have by far the worst rushing offense in the NFL so far. They’ve also turned the ball over five times in two weeks. This week they face a New York Jets defense that is better than the two defenses they have faced so far. Through two weeks, the Jets have only given up 8.5 points per game and have forced an astounding 10 turnovers. As much as I want to hope the Eagles offense gets on track, I just have a hard time seeing them do it this week. I think there will be some opportunities for defensive TDs for Revis and company this week. At a price point $900 lower on FanDuel and $400 lower on DraftKings than the Seahawks this week; I think the Jets make a very good play in cash games and GPPs if you need the salary cap savings.