Daily Fantasy NFL: Head-to-Head vs. GPP (Week 3)
Welcome to the first weekly edition of my NFL picks for all game types. In this article I am going to give you my strategies in football for building a winning lineup for all game types, including 50/50’s/double-ups/head-to-head and GPP’s.
50/50’s, Double Ups & Head-To-Head
Let’s start with my picks for 50/50’s/Double Ups & Head-To-Head. We will break it down by position. Remember here is where we are looking for guaranteed points and are less interested in gambling on players.
Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers is the best QB in football. He is a lock for big points every week regardless of his opponent. He has 833 passing yards and 7 TDs in two games, enough said.
Peyton Manning – Peyton hit the fountain of youth in the off season. He looks as good as ever with 9 TDs already. The Raiders are not slowing him down.
Matthew Stafford – I expect this game to be a shootout. The Redskins are awful on Defense ranking 23rd against the pass. Stafford should have a HUGE day!
Running Backs:
Marshawn Lynch – Lynch had 98 yards and 2 TDs against a very good 49ers Defense. Jacksonville has the 2nd worst defense against the run. Time for beast mode!
Alfred Morris – I expect a lot of points in this game and I think Morris busts out for a big day. His price is right on most sites.
Frank Gore – I think SF gets back on track this week and I believe Gore will bounce back with a solid game. Indy’s 29th rank Defense against the run will help.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson – The best WR in football VS one of the worst Defenses in football, you do the math.
A.J. Green – The Packers have allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season. Green will have no problems racking up the yards.
Pierre Garcon – Did I mention I expect DET@ WAS to be high scoring? Garcon has become the go-to guy for RG III, and with him not running a lot, I expect a lot of throws heading Pierre’s way.
Tight End
Jason Witten – Witten is my favorite play when it comes to Tight Ends. He never seems to be overpriced and always puts up points. Last week was not a very good week for him and he was still targeted 8 times. I think Romo and Witten get their bromance back on track this week.
Greg Olsen – Olsen is coming off a strong week 2 performance and has become Newton’s favorite target. The Giants have trouble defending the Tight End.
Kickers
Kickers make as much sense to me in fantasy as closers do in baseball. I think both are way too fluky. As I mentioned earlier, I generally use the minimum salary on kickers.
Steven Hauschka – Seattle should blow out the Jags. Let’s hope Hauschka can get a couple of field goals mixed in with the PATs.
Jay Feely – Arizona will put up some points and it is indoors. Plus the Saints have been solid in the red zone, maybe that means Cardinals field goals.
Defenses
Seattle Seahawks – I rarely buy the most expensive Defense in this format, but this week I will make an exception. The Seahawks are a dominant Defense to say the least. They are at home and facing a very bad Jaguars team. Sign me up.
Minnesota Vikings – If you cannot afford the Seahawks Defense OR want to save money, Minnesota fits the bill. What was Cleveland thinking dealing Richardson? The Browns might put the worst offense in NFL history on the field Sunday.
GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pools)
GPP’s are a whole new ball game. You need guys to have huge days, GPP’s are all about upside. All or nothing players can become GPP gold, while value players are just as important as your star players. Here you will find a few more risks at each position.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford – I absolutely love Stafford this week. Considering his price and his matchup, I think he is the #1 GPP QB play.
Colin Kaepernick – He might be expensive but I think he is worth his price this week. Kaepernick is capable of being GPP gold on any given week. After being shut down by Seattle last week, I expect a monster game this week.
Andy Dalton – This should be another high scoring game. I expect Dalton to throw a lot and there is nobody in that Packer secondary that scares me. The Pack rank 30th against the pass. If you are looking for your value QB, look no further.
Sam Bradford – The former #1 overall pick has looked great so far throwing for over 650 yards in their first two games. His offense seems much improved and playing indoors on turf never hurts. The Cowboys have the 25th ranked defense against the pass.
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno – Moreno has been outstanding so far this year and a steal at his price on certain sites. I see him getting most of the playing time again this week due to his hot start and blocking ability. The Broncos should be way up after 3 quarters and I expect Moreno to add up the yards in garbage time.
Stevan Ridley – Ridley is another great GPP play. He had a tough week against the NYJ, but averaged over 5 yards per carry in week one. Let’s not forget he had 12 TDs last season. This is a great example of jumping on a struggling player the week he goes off.
Chris Johnson – CJ2K has rushed quite well this season considering he has faced both Pittsburgh and Houston on the road. He is getting 25 carries a game and faces the Chargers 22nd rank rushing defense. Note: San Diego is travelling form the West coast to the East coast for a 1pm game.
Joique Bell – This is your ultimate risk/reward player. If Bush cannot go, I think Bell is a must play and your best GPP RB. Bell is an explosive player averaging over 4 yards a carry and is also a big time threat out of the back field. The Redskins are dead last against the run.
Wide Receivers
Julian Edelman – Who else is Brady going to throw to? Edelman has been targeted 27 times, 2nd most in the NFL this season. I don’t see Revis shadowing him as some sites have suggested. I expect another big week and at his price he is a stud GPP play.
Marques Colston – The Saints always put up points at home. He does have a tough matchup with Patrick Peterson, but I still think Colston finds the end zone this week. Anytime Colston is at home he should be on your GPP radar.
Anquan Boldin – Boldin was embarrassed last week by Richard Sherman and company. Take advantage of his discounted price as I expect Boldin to explode this week.
Tight Ends
Vernon Davis – If you looked up boom or bust player you would see a picture of Vernon Davis. Trust me, I just googled it. He says his hamstring is fine, if you trust his word he could be a GPP monster in week 3.
Jermaine Gresham – If you plan to punt TE like I am, go with Gresham. He has averaged 7 targets a game this year and is always a red zone threat. He has big upside and at his price, you have nothing to lose.
Kickers
Garrett Hartley – The Saints are ranked dead last in red zone scoring percentage. They are also paying in a dome, maybe these two things will mean field goals.
Sebastian Janikowski – He has a big leg and is playing at Mile High. The Raiders are ranked 26th in red zone scoring Pct.
Defenses
Seattle Seahawks – This is simple. Buy the Seahawks defense, period.
Tennessee Titans – As I mentioned earlier I like to avoid players traveling from the West coast to the East for a 1pm game, and the Chargers are doing exactly that. SD is banged up and as long as Rivers is at QB you can expect turnovers.
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