Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 21st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie | KCR | CLE | 18.2 | 4.34 | 4.86 | 1.32 | 48.5% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 1.45 | 1.09 |
| McAllister | CLE | KCR | 17.2 | 2.04 | 3.99 | 1.22 | 45.8% | 20.8% | 8.3% | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Leake | CIN | PIT | 21.1 | 2.95 | 3.07 | 0.90 | 51.6% | 17.1% | 6.1% | 0.84 | 3.50 |
| Liriano | PIT | CIN | 25 | 3.96 | 3.22 | 1.24 | 65.4% | 26.7% | 9.5% | 1.44 | 2.00 |
| Richards | LAA | WAS | 19 | 2.84 | 4.07 | 1.16 | 35.3% | 23.7% | 13.2% | 0.00 | 1.79 |
| Roark | WAS | LAA | 17 | 5.29 | 4.53 | 1.41 | 80.0% | 17.3% | 8.0% | 1.06 | 0.65 |
| Danks | CWS | DET | 19 | 3.32 | 5.02 | 1.26 | 27.3% | 16.3% | 12.5% | 0.47 | 1.10 |
| Sanchez | DET | CWS | 14 | 3.21 | 3.72 | 1.29 | 62.1% | 28.8% | 13.6% | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Koehler | MIA | ATL | 19 | 1.89 | 5.02 | 1.11 | 30.4% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 0.47 | 1.42 |
| Teheran | ATL | MIA | 28 | 1.93 | 4.79 | 1.04 | 50.0% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 0.64 | 0.94 |
| Lyons | STL | NYM | 25.0% | ||||||||
| Mejia | NYM | STL | 16 | 2.81 | 4.25 | 1.44 | 40.0% | 25.4% | 15.5% | 1.13 | 1.83 |
| Arroyo | ARI | CHC | 12.2 | 9.95 | 4.82 | 2.05 | 53.1% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.84 | 1.71 |
| Wood | CHC | ARI | 18 | 3.00 | 3.13 | 1.39 | 62.5% | 23.2% | 4.9% | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Cashner | SDP | MIL | 28.1 | 1.27 | 2.90 | 0.96 | 50.0% | 24.3% | 7.2% | 0.32 | 2.65 |
| Peralta | MIL | SDP | 18.1 | 1.96 | 3.53 | 1.10 | 34.4% | 17.3% | 6.7% | 1.47 | 2.43 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | COL | 15 | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.53 | 21.1% | 16.4% | 7.5% | 1.20 | 0.46 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SFG | 19 | 7.58 | 3.60 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 23.0% | 9.2% | 1.89 | 1.71 |
| Darvish | TEX | OAK | 22 | 0.82 | 2.98 | 0.86 | 46.9% | 27.1% | 4.7% | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Straily | OAK | TEX | 16.2 | 5.40 | 3.60 | 1.23 | 44.4% | 21.7% | 5.8% | 2.16 | 0.83 |
| Lee | PHI | LAD | 27 | 4.00 | 2.61 | 1.56 | 58.1% | 23.3% | 1.7% | 0.67 | 1.96 |
| Maholm | LAD | PHI | 12.2 | 4.97 | 4.99 | 1.56 | 42.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 1.42 | 2.25 |
| Keuchel | HOU | SEA | 18 | 3.50 | 3.19 | 1.33 | 36.4% | 21.3% | 6.7% | 1.50 | 2.29 |
| Hernandez | SEA | HOU | 28.1 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 61.3% | 35.5% | 2.7% | 0.64 | 1.48 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (v. HOU) – With 39 strikeouts in his first four starts, Hernandez is averaging nearly 10 per game meanwhile the Astros are fanning 9.1 times per game. King Felix will obviously be a very popular pick given this matchup and it has the chance to be a really special outing.
Yu Darvish, TEX (at OAK) – He’ll carry a huge price tag (as he always does), but he’ll also almost assuredly earn it. If you have a handful of low-dollar, high-upside hitters that you like, then you can work Darvish into your lineup today.
Julio Teheran, ATL (v. MIA) – I mentioned last time he threw that we haven’t seen that huge outing from Teheran just yet as his Ks have been low and he’s worked out of some trouble caused by too many hits or walks. Well, then he went out and threw a three-hit shutout against the Phillies. Teheran’s slider has carried him so far this year with a .170 wOBA. The Marlins have a .332 wOBA against righty sliders, but it’s a punchless figure boosted by a sky-high .532 BABIP. They have just a .100 ISO and 38.5% strikeout rate on the pitch. Advantage: Teheran.
Travis Wood, CHC (v. ARI) – Wood’s been great so far this year and now he gets the dumpster fire that is Arizona. He worked around some trouble last time out allowing just two runs on 11 hits in Yankee Stadium, but the D’Backs have been hapless against lefties with a .259 wOBA (third-worst) this year so he should have an easier go this time around.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Wily Peralta, MIL (v. SD) – This is a great matchup for Peralta, but his batters will have a tough time supporting him against Cashner. I prefer Cashner with all things equal, but Peralta gets the nod over him in today’s rankings as he’s sure to be cheaper than San Diego’s budding ace.
Andrew Cashner, SD (at MIL) – I love Cashner, but that Milwaukee lineup can do some damage so I’m moving him down a tier today.
Cliff Lee, PHI (at LAD) – Lee has spent his last three starts chiseling down a 14.40 ERA and he’s got it down to 4.00 after nine innings of one-run ball his last time out. He’s still allowing too many hits (10, 8, and 11 in his last three), but he’s also missing plenty of bats with 27 Ks in 22 IP in that same span. The Dodgers haven’t done much against lefties, but I don’t think he can escape trouble as much against them if he allows another 10 or so hits.
Zach McAllister, CLE (v. KC) – It’s been McAllister and not Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, or Danny Salazar, that has led the Cleveland staff thus far. His price is on the rise with back-to-back gems, but he’s still a relative bargain if he can stay hot. The Royals can nickel-and-dime a pitcher, but they have shown virtually no power early on this season with the second-lowest ISO in the league at .108 against righties.
Tyler Lyons, STL (at NYM) – The young lefty comes up to take over for Joe Kelly and gets a nice matchup. The Mets strikeout more than any team in baseball against lefties (29.4%) and their .272 wOBA is sixth-worst. He’s dirt-cheap at several outlets making him a worthy partner for one of the expensive studs. Unfortunately, he won’t be available at all outlets today.
Garrett Richards, LAA (at WAS) – He’s finally missing bats at a level commensurate with his stuff. His slider has been devastating, which could be a big problem for Washington. They have a .198 wOBA against righty sliders (third-lowest) with a 37.8% strikeout rate. This looks like a nice bounce back spot for Richards after Oakland got to him for 5 ER last time out.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU (at SEA) – We’ve seen back-to-back gems from Keuchel and we could get a third tonight in Seattle. They’re just 19th in wOBA against southpaws at .284 and their .112 ISO ranks 22nd. Homers have long been a problem for Keuchel, but that just hasn’t been a big part of Seattle’s game against lefties early on. He’s cheap enough to easily pair with a stud, but unfortunately he’s squaring off against one of the studs and it’s tough to take both starters in an outing because you’re guaranteeing just one shot at a win. I think you have to go with Darvish if you decide to gamble on Keuchel.
USE CAUTION:
Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. CWS) – Sanchez hasn’t been great thus far. He has a 3.21 ERA in three starts, but he’s yet to go more than five innings in any of them. He’s still missing bats (17 K in 14 IP) and the stuff has looked excellent for spells, but I think the price is too high to mess with him today. The White Sox have a league-best .352 wOBA against righties and if you’re going to spend big, there are safer investments.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. CIN) – Liriano wasn’t bad in Cincy his last time out (7 IP/3 ER), but he did take a third straight loss. The Reds don’t fare too well against lefties as their best bats are southpaws, however Liriano has sputtered a bit against lefties to start the season with an 804 OPS. Be careful here. This is a scenario similar to Sanchez’s where I could definitely see a solid outing, but there are enough strong options similar to Liriano’s caliber that you needn’t take the unnecessary risk.
Tom Koehler, MIA (at ATL) – Koehler’s component numbers haven’t supported his 1.89 ERA thus far as he has one outing with one strikeout and walk apiece and then he had a 3 K/5 BB ratio in his last outing. All told, he’s at 10 K against 8 BB thus far in 19 IP which doesn’t really generate a great FIP. Alas, I’m still buying in as a cheap secondary option to pair with a high-priced stud. The Braves are 22nd in wOBA against righties and they are a great remedy for anyone looking for some strikeouts. I’d only pair him with a Darvish or Hernandez type who can cover his mistakes if he doesn’t give us a fourth straight gem.
Mike Leake, CIN (at PIT) – Leake has almost run the gamut of his value through three starts. An unimpressive season debut followed by eight scoreless in his second outing and then a worthwhile 6.7 IP/3 ER effort in his latest outing that was buoyed by eight strikeouts. He can drop a bomb every once in a while, too, which is the only facet we haven’t seen so far. It really is a gamble to use these kinds of guys in the daily game because there is no real rhyme or reason to his performance. He can crush a great team or get smoked by a modest one. I’d practice some caution in the rematch against Pittsburgh here.
John Danks, CWS (at DET) – On the positive side, Danks has allowed just a single home run thus far. He was abysmal in that category a year ago. Additionally, it’s helped him go six or more innings in each start. While the Tigers offense hasn’t really gotten going just yet, they are doing their best work against lefties so I still don’t love Danks today.
Dan Straily, OAK (v. TEX) – Homers have accounted for all of his runs so far this year and while the Rangers certainly aren’t clicking on all cylinders right now, I still fear them enough to back off when they’re facing a homer-prone pitcher.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Jenrry Mejia, NYM (v. STL) – That blister just worries me too much. He has command issues that can crop up when everything is right, throwing in a negative variable like the blister against a great lineup pushes me off of him entirely.
Tanner Roark, WAS (v. LAA) – Roark hasn’t really elevated his stock as he and Taylor Jordan battle for a spot with the impending return of Doug Fister. He finally gets a home start, but I still worry about what the Angels offense could do to him.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Bronson Arroyo, ARI (at CHC)
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (at CLE)
Ryan Vogelsong, SF (at COL)
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. SF)
Paul Maholm, LAD (v. PHI)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie | 0.389 | 4.62 | 0.282 | 3.51 | 0.251 | 0.731 | 0.246 | 5.59 | 0.239 | 107.67 | 62.5% |
| McAllister | 0.335 | 3.87 | 0.306 | 3.25 | 0.268 | 0.689 | 0.294 | 2.40 | 0.227 | 94.00 | 65.2% |
| Leake | 0.318 | 3.27 | 0.303 | 3.34 | 0.229 | 0.670 | 0.200 | 3.83 | 0.184 | 106.00 | 59.4% |
| Liriano | 0.174 | 2.11 | 0.307 | 3.49 | 0.227 | 0.702 | 0.270 | 4.12 | 0.221 | 99.75 | 62.7% |
| Richards | 0.318 | 3.94 | 0.286 | 4.30 | 0.237 | 0.693 | 0.250 | 2.76 | 0.182 | 98.33 | 56.9% |
| Roark | 0.337 | 3.95 | 0.192 | 1.47 | 0.242 | 0.739 | 0.314 | 4.67 | 0.273 | 93.00 | 62.0% |
| Danks | 0.346 | 4.47 | 0.335 | 4.66 | 0.288 | 0.850 | 0.236 | 4.13 | 0.203 | 108.33 | 63.7% |
| Sanchez | 0.303 | 3.53 | 0.241 | 1.60 | 0.275 | 0.778 | 0.294 | 2.36 | 0.196 | 94.33 | 61.1% |
| Koehler | 0.300 | 4.54 | 0.348 | 3.79 | 0.242 | 0.700 | 0.214 | 3.97 | 0.194 | 99.00 | 60.6% |
| Teheran | 0.343 | 4.13 | 0.266 | 2.12 | 0.290 | 0.804 | 0.239 | 3.83 | 0.223 | 98.50 | 62.4% |
| Lyons | 0.280 | 5.28 | 0.333 | 4.54 | 0.238 | 0.630 | |||||
| Mejia | 0.302 | 3.12 | 0.276 | 2.10 | 0.270 | 0.735 | 0.250 | 4.51 | 0.2 | 92.00 | 64.9% |
| Arroyo | 0.373 | 5.16 | 0.281 | 3.19 | 0.227 | 0.628 | 0.347 | 7.42 | 0.356 | 78.67 | 65.7% |
| Wood | 0.270 | 2.82 | 0.295 | 3.21 | 0.215 | 0.569 | 0.351 | 2.52 | 0.273 | 104.00 | 65.4% |
| Cashner | 0.302 | 3.44 | 0.252 | 2.33 | 0.263 | 0.718 | 0.240 | 2.48 | 0.184 | 101.50 | 68.7% |
| Peralta | 0.324 | 4.01 | 0.316 | 4.37 | 0.241 | 0.641 | 0.222 | 4.60 | 0.214 | 95.33 | 64.7% |
| Vogelsong | 0.344 | 4.91 | 0.395 | 6.60 | 0.280 | 0.764 | 0.348 | 4.94 | 0.305 | 90.00 | 59.6% |
| De La Rosa | 0.239 | 2.37 | 0.350 | 4.39 | 0.249 | 0.725 | 0.283 | 5.29 | 0.247 | 89.75 | 61.3% |
| Darvish | 0.282 | 2.73 | 0.249 | 2.56 | 0.260 | 0.773 | 0.259 | 1.53 | 0.185 | 99.00 | 65.3% |
| Straily | 0.321 | 4.84 | 0.283 | 3.38 | 0.267 | 0.727 | 0.261 | 5.12 | 0.246 | 86.00 | 62.8% |
| Lee | 0.246 | 2.59 | 0.299 | 3.12 | 0.215 | 0.636 | 0.432 | 2.19 | 0.339 | 107.25 | 69.9% |
| Maholm | 0.253 | 2.30 | 0.372 | 5.24 | 0.304 | 0.838 | 0.279 | 5.92 | 0.286 | 41.60 | 58.2% |
| Keuchel | 0.359 | 5.31 | 0.357 | 4.92 | 0.239 | 0.628 | 0.320 | 4.47 | 0.275 | 96.00 | 61.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.294 | 3.43 | 0.258 | 2.33 | 0.180 | 0.592 | 0.250 | 1.77 | 0.171 | 101.00 | 68.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window