Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 30th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here
Performance and Talent Statistics: April 30th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | IMP% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worley | MIN | 24 | 6.38 | 4.28 | 1.83 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 14.2% | 7.1% | 0.38 | 1.88 |
| Verlander | DET | 32.1 | 1.95 | 3.33 | 1.24 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 24.8% | 6.8% | 0.28 | 1.19 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | 28 | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.14 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 23.7% | 11.4% | 0.96 | 1.76 |
| Hudson | ATL | 28 | 4.50 | 4.26 | 1.32 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 1.61 | 1.81 |
| Hefner | NYM | 21 | 4.50 | 5.65 | 1.45 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 2.25 | 0.93 |
| Slowey | MIA | 29.2 | 2.43 | 4.12 | 1.15 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 17.2% | 4.9% | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| Halladay | PHI | 28.1 | 5.08 | 3.68 | 1.09 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 23.9% | 9.4% | 1.59 | 1.46 |
| McAllister | CLE | 23 | 3.52 | 4.11 | 1.30 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 19.8% | 7.9% | 0.78 | 0.93 |
| Volquez | SDP | 25.1 | 6.39 | 4.74 | 1.74 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 0.71 | 1.77 |
| Jackson | CHC | 28.1 | 4.76 | 3.95 | 1.41 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 21.5% | 11.5% | 0.32 | 2.53 |
| Humber | HOU | 23.2 | 7.99 | 4.86 | 1.82 | 20.0% | 40.0% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Kuroda | NYY | 29 | 2.79 | 3.69 | 1.03 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 5.9% | 0.62 | 1.77 |
| McDonald | PIT | 24.2 | 4.38 | 4.84 | 1.46 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 13.6% | 0.36 | 0.94 |
| Estrada | MIL | 30.1 | 3.86 | 3.50 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 22.1% | 4.7% | 2.08 | 0.93 |
| Lester | BOS | 31.2 | 2.27 | 3.60 | 1.11 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 21.9% | 7.8% | 0.28 | 1.79 |
| Morrow | TOR | 27.1 | 5.27 | 4.77 | 1.54 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 15.3% | 7.3% | 1.32 | 0.69 |
| Arroyo | CIN | 34 | 4.24 | 4.33 | 1.09 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 1.06 | 1.15 |
| Garcia | STL | 28 | 2.89 | 3.51 | 1.43 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.3% | 9.8% | 0.64 | 3.29 |
| Quintana | CWS | 22.2 | 2.78 | 3.68 | 1.06 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 21.7% | 6.5% | 0.40 | 1.04 |
| Darvish | TEX | 32.2 | 1.65 | 1.94 | 0.80 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 39.8% | 8.1% | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | 33.2 | 1.87 | 3.06 | 0.89 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 26.6% | 6.3% | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| Cahill | ARI | 30 | 3.00 | 3.83 | 1.23 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.9% | 9.3% | 0.60 | 2.05 |
| Cobb | TBR | 29.2 | 1.82 | 3.70 | 1.04 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 19.1% | 6.1% | 0.30 | 1.74 |
| Shields | KCR | 35 | 3.09 | 3.41 | 1.09 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 23.2% | 6.5% | 0.51 | 1.39 |
| De La Rosa | COL | 28.1 | 2.86 | 4.57 | 1.16 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 16.5% | 10.1% | 0.95 | 1.61 |
| Ryu | LAD | 31.2 | 3.41 | 3.16 | 1.20 | 60.0% | 20.0% | 26.4% | 6.2% | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Hammel | BAL | 30.2 | 3.82 | 5.07 | 1.14 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Maurer | SEA | 25.2 | 5.61 | 4.41 | 1.36 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 14.7% | 5.5% | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| Richards | LAA | 24.2 | 3.98 | 3.65 | 0.93 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 18.2% | 6.5% | 0.89 | 2.53 |
| Parker | OAK | 23.1 | 8.10 | 5.54 | 2.14 | 12.0% | 11.1% | 1.54 | 0.94 | ||
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
THE CREAM OF THE CROP:
Yu Darvish, TEX (vs. CWS) – What can I really tell you about Darvish that you don’t already know? Or better stated, is there really anything I can tell you about him that is swaying you to use him? Nevertheless, here are some fun facts. His fastballs have yielded an AL-best (wherein lower is better, of course) 445 OPS. It’s also good for third in the majors. It’ll be interesting to see how the Sox fare on his curveball. His is allowing an absurd 229 OPS on the pitch with a 72% strikeout rate while the Sox have the sixth-best OPS off of curves at 718.
Justin Verlander, DET (vs. MIN) – Similar to Darvish, there isn’t a ton that you need to hear to use him. Of course, we thought Andy Pettitte, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Harvey were sure bets, too. Pettitte was crushed, Samardzija was “meh”, and Harvey was simply good in a short outing with no win. The Twins aren’t a hacking team, but Verlander can still pile up the strikeouts by challenging them in the zone. First off, they aren’t going to beat him with power as evidenced by their 27th-ranked slugging percentage of .361, but additionally they take the most called strikes at 35%.
Jon Lester, BOS (vs. TOR) – Speaking of challenging in the zone, Lester has seen a 3% rise in strikeouts despite a 1.5% drop in swinging strike rate, mostly by pounding the zone with the fastball and curveball early and putting them away with the cutter which batters are chasing. This is perfect for his matchup against the Jays who have a league-worst 313 OPS against cutters striking out a third of the time. As if life could get any worse for the Jays, they also bring their league-worst 604 OPS against southpaws into a match against one of the league’s toughest.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (vs. ARI) – I know Paul Goldschmidt hits lefties well, but you might just want to stay away from all D’Backs tonight unless you want to challenge Bumgarner’s .190 batting average against (11th-best in baseball). Add in that Arizona, if you remember from yesterday, has a league-worst 372 OPS against sliders which is Bummy’s bread-and-butter pitch (522 OPS, 27% K rate). They got to Matt Cain last night, but they went 0-for-6 against his slider. It was his poorly-placed fastball that they ate up.
Hiroki Kuroda NYY (vs. HOU) – If it makes you feel any better, Pettitte ruined my night, too. I didn’t have him everywhere, but I was toast in the places where I did. Kuroda’s slider and splitter have carried him this year as he’s allowed a 305 OPS or worse with both generating 72% of his strikeouts. The Astros are well-above league average against sliders, so expect a healthy dose of splitters against which they are hitting just .130 with 13 strikeouts in 25 plate appearances.
James Shields, KC (vs. TB) – This is going to be very interesting as Shields faces his former teammates for the first time. It’s hard to say who has the advantage or if any perceived edge on either side simply mitigates the other. Where Shields does have an edge is in the fact that Tampa Bay just isn’t a very strong offense at all (688 OPS). He’s allowed a .171 AVG or better on his three off-speed pitches including a .100 on the curve and slider so the only hope for the Rays seems to be the fastball (.380 AVG) and they are below league average against heaters.
Alex Cobb TB (vs. KC) – While there are better options for the night, this matchup between Shields and Cobb might be the best battle. Of course that also makes either tougher to pick because of your chances to get a win. The Royals have an AL-worst 736 OPS against fastballs (league average is 799) and that just so happens to be Cobb’s best pitch. He throws is 52% of the time and he’s allowing a paltry .170 AVG with it generating a strikeout 22% of the time. He beats batters in the zone with it (55%) getting tons of called strikes before looking to put them away with changeups out of the zone as evidenced by his 55% chase rate with the pitch.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (vs. ATL) – There seems to be a perception that Gonzalez is off to a rough start. Don’t let the 4.50 ERA fool you. He still has a sparkling 1.14 WHIP and his strikeout rate is still elite at 24% (down slightly from last year’s 25%). He had a couple of tough outings, including one against these Braves, in the middle of the month, but he has two gems and a near-gem under his belt when he went five strong allowing just a run to the White Sox with seven strikeouts. The Braves are fanning on 40% of their plate appearances that end with a strikeout which just happens to coincide with Gio’s 43% strikeout rate with his curveball. I think he shakes off the earlier outing against the Braves and has a solid outing tonight.
Roy Halladay, PHI (vs. CLE) – Halladay has a 1.71 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in 21 innings over his last three starts. The problem is that two were against Miami and Pittsburgh so some skeptics remain. That’s fair, but one was also against the Cards. Meanwhile, the Mets ripped him in his second outing so opponent didn’t matter when he was struggling. Is this a chance for his cutter to get right? It’s been pummeled this year for a 1491 OPS including three of his five homers, but the Indians have a mere 364 OPS against the pitch so far. That’s only on 22 plate appearances, but the destruction of Halladay’s has only been 26. It’s only been a month so we’re dealing with short samples at every turn. The Indians offense isn’t why they’re 10-13, but I still like Halladay and his price comes down from former Halladayian levels, he could be a bargain buy.
BEST THE REST:
Trevor Cahill, ARI (vs. SF) – The defense needs to be ready in any Cahill start as he has a 55% groundball rate, but they need to be especially sharp tonight as that groundball rate meets the hardest team to strikeout in the league (15%) and the second-most groundball prone (50%). If you want a starter with a high floor (might not dominate, but shouldn’t get destroyed, either) then Cahill is your guy. He hasn’t yielded a homer to the Giants in his last five outings allowing 1, 1, 2, 4, and 4 runs.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (vs. SD) – Jackson’s favorite pitcher marries well with defeating this Padres offense as he throws his slider 29% of the time yielding a 410 OPS and 48% strikeout rate and this offense has a 413 OPS against the pitch striking out 32% of the time. If you want to stack your lineup with a high-powered offense and save some money by avoiding the Darvishes and Verlanders of the world, Jackson looks like a strong play.
Kevin Slowey, MIA (vs. NYM) – Slowey is another low-dollar option with upside. He doesn’t have near the upside of Jackson, but he won’t be near the cost, either. He has a chance to work in more of his off-speed stuff tonight against the Mets. He throws his fastball 67% of the time while his slider (15%), changeup (10%), and curve (8%) are mixed in, but the Mets hit a combined.197 with a 525 OPS against those three offerings so he bring those out with more frequency. Homers have always held him back and he plays in the perfect park for that deficiency.
Jason Hammel, BAL (vs. SEA) – Hammel is slowly ramping his season as his 12.5% strikeout rate doesn’t inspire too much confidence, but his 3.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP have been pretty good all things considered. Pitch-sequencing has been the biggest issue from the starts that I’ve watched, though it was much better in his last two outings against the A’s and Dodgers. He needs to trust his secondary stuff in pitcher’s counts a bit more to generate the strikeouts we saw last year when he had a 23% rate.
USE CAUTION:
Jose Quintana, CWS (vs. TEX) – Even though he’s been much improved – specifically with his strikeout rate – he gets a potent Rangers lineup, but more importantly his teammates have to face Darvish and that cuts deep into his win probability.
Zach McAllister, CLE (vs. PHI) – He has been basically a two-pitch pitcher since his changeup has been virtually non-existent early one (6% usage, 1000 OPS allowed), but the Phillies strikeout a lot (39%) on curveballs while their 709 OPS against fastballs is 27th-best in baseball so they fare poorly against the two pitches he relies on most-heavily. You would want to be extremely confident in your offensive lineup to dip this deep into the pitcher pool.
Brandon Maurer, SEA (vs. BAL) – After getting ripped by Oakland and even the Astros to start the season, Maurer has been golden in three straight posting a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings against the Rangers twice and the Angels once. His 17% strikeout rate is bland, but the 6.7% walk rate is sharp. His fastball has been particularly effective in those three outings with a .156 AVG against, but the Orioles are among the best against fastballs with a .291 AVG and 832 OPS and they are tops against sliders – his best pitch – with a .292 AVG and 815 OPS.
Jaime Garcia, STL (CIN) – His 2.89 ERA this year has been excellent, but the 1.43 WHIP says too many runners are on base and he’s having to constantly escape danger. And he might not be able to tonight against the Reds, who have the second-best OPS against lefties at 820.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Marco Estrada, PIT
James McDonald, PIT
Brandon Morrow, TOR
Jarrod Parker, OAK
Tim Hudson, ATL
Garrett Richards, LAA
Jeremy Hefner, NYM
Edinson Volquez, SD
Vance Worley, MIN
Bronson Arroyo, CIN
Philip Humber, HOU