Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 14th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 14th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | LAA | 103.1 | 2.87 | 3.96 | 1.10 | 62.5% | 19.7% | 5.8% | 0.87 | 0.78 | |
| Nova | NYY | 80.0 | 2.93 | 3.20 | 1.26 | 45.5% | 23.9% | 7.4% | 0.45 | 2.09 | |
| Lincecum | SFG | 142.0 | 4.18 | 3.49 | 1.27 | 39.1% | 25.1% | 8.9% | 0.95 | 1.46 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 151.0 | 3.10 | 3.67 | 1.09 | 65.2% | 18.6% | 4.7% | 0.83 | 1.56 | |
| Lester | BOS | 150.1 | 4.37 | 3.91 | 1.34 | 37.5% | 20.0% | 7.6% | 1.08 | 1.37 | |
| Rogers | TOR | 96.2 | 5.12 | 4.22 | 1.52 | 38.5% | 15.2% | 7.0% | 1.30 | 1.62 | |
| Harang | SEA | 102.2 | 5.79 | 4.29 | 1.31 | 36.8% | 16.1% | 5.2% | 1.67 | 0.89 | |
| Price | TBR | 119.1 | 3.17 | 3.47 | 1.06 | 58.8% | 19.9% | 3.4% | 1.06 | 1.31 | |
| Lannan | PHI | 73.0 | 4.81 | 4.71 | 1.45 | 30.8% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 0.62 | 1.81 | |
| Beachy | ATL | 18.0 | 5.00 | 3.77 | 1.11 | 33.3% | 20.8% | 5.6% | 1.50 | 0.81 | |
| Thornburg | MIL | 30.1 | 1.78 | 4.22 | 1.25 | 100.0% | 16.5% | 7.9% | 0.30 | 1.15 | |
| Garza | TEX | 100.1 | 3.23 | 3.76 | 1.11 | 53.3% | 20.9% | 6.1% | 1.08 | 0.96 | |
| Liriano | PIT | 105.0 | 2.83 | 3.56 | 1.26 | 64.7% | 24.4% | 10.1% | 0.43 | 2.06 | |
| Miller | STL | 121.1 | 2.89 | 3.22 | 1.14 | 45.0% | 26.8% | 7.1% | 0.89 | 0.88 | |
| Cosart | HOU | 33.0 | 1.36 | 5.31 | 1.27 | 80.0% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 0.00 | 2.46 | |
| Parker | OAK | 138.0 | 4.04 | 4.58 | 1.23 | 47.8% | 16.7% | 8.7% | 1.11 | 0.99 | |
| Gee | NYM | 139.0 | 3.82 | 4.19 | 1.32 | 47.8% | 17.0% | 6.2% | 1.17 | 1.14 | |
| Capuano | LAD | 80.0 | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.39 | 40.0% | 17.9% | 5.2% | 1.01 | 1.29 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
David Price, TB (v. SEA) – There aren’t many pitchers hotter than Price right now and even an improved Mariners team isn’t enough to dissuade me from him. They have a meager .292 wOBA against lefties on the season, but they are up to 11th at .326 in August. Since the break Price has a 1.60 ERA in five starts spanning 39.3 IP with 26 Ks and just two walks. His command of the zone has been positively unreal. If anyone is matchup-proof right now, it’s Price (among a few others, but him for sure).
Jarrod Parker, OAK (v. HOU) – It’s Jarrod v. Jarred! After an ugly 7 BB outing against the Angels on July 28th, Parker has bounced back with a pair of quality starts to open August including a 12/3 K/BB ratio in 12 IP of work. This is his second battle against the Astros as he opened the second half against them with a 7 IP/1 ER outing, but oddly just 4 Ks. I love him here.
Matt Garza, TEX (v. MIL) – His last two outings haven’t been special which is a little irksome since one of them was against the Astros, but he still netted the win in his 7 IP/4 ER effort and he added 8 Ks to mitigate the earned run damage. The Brewers offense has completely fallen off with the departure of Ryan Braun despite several solid bats remaining. They have the third-worst wOBA against righties in August at .293. Garza handled a Braun-less Brewers lineup back on June 27th posting a 7 IP/1 ER effort with 10 Ks and the win.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Ivan Nova, NYY (v. LAA) – A lot of folks are missing the boat on Nova. He’s been tremendous since returning from a second DL stint back on June 23rd posting a 2.04 ERA in 57.3 IP and not once allowing more than 3 ER in an outing. He has 55 Ks and a 3.7 K/BB ratio, too. The competition has been tough, too, with two outings against both Tampa and Baltimore as well as a 7 IP/1 ER gem against Detroit his last time out. The Angels are good offensively despite what their overall record suggests, but I think good pitching trumps good hitting here. I don’t love him because he draws the one pitcher of consequence for the Angels (OK, OK, Wilson and Richards have been solid, too) making a win tough to come by, but we should see a final score that is a far cry from the 14-7 battle on Tuesday night.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. SF) – He’s been all over the map of late: 2, 7, 5, 0, and 2 ER in his last five, so he gets dropped a tier especially since his price remains high, but I haven’t lost complete confidence in him. Facing the Giants definitely helps instill some of that confidence, but he has a thick enough track record to overcome a few ugly starts in a short span.
Jered Weaver, LAA (at NYY) – A two touchdown night isn’t enough to sway me on the Yankees having a threatening offense. Meanwhile Weaver is running hot. He’s gone at least 6.7 IP in each of his starts since the break yielding a tremendous 1.49 ERA and 32 Ks in 36.3 IP. His eight walks give him a 4.0 K/BB, too. The Yankees roughed him up a bit at home back in mid-June (6 IP/5 ER), but he was still finding his footing in his third start back from injury and he’s a different pitcher now. I like him for a nice outing here.
Chris Capuano, LAD (v. NYM) – In his last nine starts, Capuano has either given up 5 or 0 ER without fail. He has five scoreless and four of the 5 ER outings going just 4.3 IP in three of them and 3.7 IP in the other. The Mets are just below league average in wOBA against lefties on the season (.299, compared to .306 average), but they’ve been a bit worse in August with a .282 which includes a 22% strikeout rate.
Brandon Beachy, ATL (v. PHI) – Unsurprisingly he had his best outing against the Marlins going eight scoreless with 6 Ks en route to his first win of the month. Of course he didn’t pitch horribly in his first two despite including his second outing which came against these Phillies (6.3 IP/3 ER). Plus, the competition remains soft with the Phillies again as they have been a sub-.300 wOBA team against righties the last two months.
Tyler Thornburg, MIL (at TEX) – Thornburg has posted a pair of scoreless (from an earned runs perspective) six inning outings since joining the rotation in late-July. He has 10 Ks in his 12 IP and he’s avoided the problem that has usually bit him in the past: home runs. He’s allowed just one in 31.3 MLB IP this year after 8 in 22 IP a year ago. The Rangers are starting to perk up a bit offensively with a .319 wOBA against righties this month after a .301 in June and July. This is a secondary option only and it’s not without risk.
Jon Lester, BOS (at TOR) – Despite two ugly duds mixed in, Lester still has a solid 3.77 ERA in his last seven starts spanning 43 IP and an even more impressive 1.87 ERA in five starts when you remove the 5 and 6 ER duds. More importantly he has a 41/10 K/BB ratio in this seven start stretch as his skills have returned after a June swoon. The Jays have been dreadful against lefties this month with a meager .214 wOBA that is an AL-worst and second only to Cincinnati (.167).
Tim Lincecum, SF (at WAS) – Honestly, it is with great trepidation that I place him into this tier as I still don’t know when the bottom will fall out with him. He has no rhyme or reason to his success and failures these days. On the one hand he has a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts (22 IP) with 23 Ks, 11 hits allowed, and just four walks, but that’s on the heels of a 3.7 IP/8 ER outing coming out of the break. The Nats are far from an imposing offense as that has been the biggest failing in their disappointing 2013 season. They are just below league average in wOBA v. RHP for the season and exactly at league average for the month (.310). Don’t fail us, Timmy.
USE CAUTION:
Shelby Miller, STL (v. PIT) – I’m a liiiittle nervous here because Miller is returning after leaving his last start just one batter in as he was hit on the elbow by a Carl Crawford batted ball. I mentioned last time out that he hasn’t gone more than six innings since June 1st (spanning 11 starts), either. These factors combined with his big price tag all add up to a pass.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (at STL) – There’s no shame in getting roughed up at Coors Field, but 10 ER in 2.3 IP is a bit more than roughed up. That start erased a few good starts in one fell swoop, but he still has a sub-3.00 ERA and we saw how A.J. Burnett bounced back from his 12 ER outing a year ago: he didn’t give up more than 3 ER for 10 straight (2.18 ERA in 66 IP). Liriano doesn’t get a great opponent to bounce back with and his price remains massive so I don’t see the upside.
Dillon Gee, NYM (at LAD) – We all know how red-hot the Dodgers are and they even made Matt Harvey look human hanging a 6 IP/4 ER outing on him on Tuesday night. Gee’s been sharp since the break with a 1.88 ERA in four starts, but the Dodgers are scary enough to back off of him here.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (at OAK) – I’m still now sold. He’s got four gems, but his strikeout rate is terrible (11%) and he has more walks than strikeouts (17 to 14) which is unthinkably bad. The A’s, meanwhile, are on fire against righties this month with a .355 that ranks third in MLB.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Esmil Rogers, TOR (v. BOS) – After looking great once he first joined the rotation, he has completely fallen off losing his command and giving up eight homers in his 25 IP since the All-Star break (2.9 HR/9).
John Lannan, PHI (at ATL) – I loved him against the Nats who are horrible against lefties and he went 5 IP/8 ER in a total meltdown that saw him allow nine hits and five walks. His upside in even the best matchups is limited because he doesn’t miss bats so there’s nothing exciting about a matchup against the league Braves.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Aaron Harang, SEA
ADVANCED METRICS: August 14th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Weaver | 0.297 | 3.30 | 0.293 | 2.25 | 0.240 | 0.675 | 0.270 | 3.56 | 0.232 | 101.88 | 62.8% | ||
| Nova | 0.294 | 3.20 | 0.301 | 2.72 | 0.274 | 0.767 | 0.326 | 2.91 | 0.248 | 86.57 | 64.0% | ||
| Lincecum | 0.309 | 4.06 | 0.305 | 4.31 | 0.249 | 0.703 | 0.298 | 3.49 | 0.235 | 102.22 | 61.7% | ||
| Zimmermann | 0.302 | 2.81 | 0.296 | 3.47 | 0.262 | 0.700 | 0.268 | 3.40 | 0.233 | 95.22 | 68.3% | ||
| Lester | 0.354 | 4.66 | 0.326 | 4.33 | 0.251 | 0.701 | 0.305 | 3.97 | 0.259 | 106.46 | 63.5% | ||
| Rogers | 0.411 | 5.73 | 0.328 | 4.72 | 0.286 | 0.821 | 0.327 | 4.67 | 0.297 | 44.56 | 63.1% | ||
| Harang | 0.355 | 6.18 | 0.339 | 5.17 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.284 | 4.87 | 0.267 | 91.16 | 65.0% | ||
| Price | 0.246 | 2.89 | 0.307 | 3.31 | 0.232 | 0.670 | 0.281 | 3.47 | 0.245 | 95.76 | 68.9% | ||
| Lannan | 0.336 | 3.45 | 0.354 | 5.30 | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.308 | 4.12 | 0.281 | 91.23 | 61.7% | ||
| Beachy | 0.324 | 3.18 | 0.305 | 5.84 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 0.260 | 4.21 | 0.235 | 93.67 | 65.8% | ||
| Thornburg | 0.280 | 2.76 | 0.318 | 0.68 | 0.263 | 0.745 | 0.290 | 3.28 | 0.243 | 63.13 | 62.2% | ||
| Garza | 0.288 | 3.29 | 0.301 | 3.20 | 0.249 | 0.703 | 0.261 | 3.75 | 0.225 | 101.13 | 63.9% | ||
| Liriano | 0.176 | 2.22 | 0.315 | 3.06 | 0.242 | 0.679 | 0.294 | 2.89 | 0.223 | 95.94 | 62.1% | ||
| Miller | 0.325 | 3.44 | 0.253 | 2.48 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.293 | 3.10 | 0.226 | 93.82 | 66.9% | ||
| Cosart | 0.298 | 1.33 | 0.256 | 1.46 | 0.247 | 0.717 | 0.248 | 3.74 | 0.217 | 103.80 | 58.2% | ||
| Parker | 0.326 | 4.54 | 0.299 | 3.55 | 0.233 | 0.669 | 0.254 | 4.50 | 0.231 | 92.91 | 62.2% | ||
| Gee | 0.372 | 4.76 | 0.291 | 3.12 | 0.269 | 0.726 | 0.296 | 4.18 | 0.264 | 91.87 | 65.5% | ||
| Capuano | 0.297 | 3.32 | 0.364 | 4.97 | 0.242 | 0.687 | 0.326 | 3.63 | 0.283 | 75.41 | 63.5% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 14th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window