Sign In $

Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 17th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-08-17 18:28:01

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: August 17th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Davis KCR 115.2 5.29 4.28 1.72 31.8% 19.1% 9.2% 1.09 1.20
Fister DET 155.0 3.60 3.40 1.22 54.2% 17.8% 4.5% 0.64 2.36
Bettis COL 16.0 5.06 5.43 1.38 33.3% 8.6% 11.4% 1.69 2.13
Norris BAL 143.0 3.78 4.44 1.39 45.8% 17.2% 8.0% 0.82 0.99
Kershaw LAD 182.1 1.88 3.11 0.87 72.0% 25.0% 5.6% 0.44 1.42
Kendrick PHI 148.2 4.48 4.28 1.36 50.0% 13.7% 5.6% 0.91 1.66
Strasburg WAS 146.1 2.83 3.14 1.04 60.9% 26.2% 7.4% 0.74 1.59
Minor ATL 157.0 2.87 3.47 1.04 62.5% 23.1% 5.2% 0.86 0.81
Latos CIN 154.0 3.04 3.46 1.24 58.3% 23.7% 7.1% 0.64 1.31
Gallardo MIL 128.1 4.91 4.20 1.48 30.4% 17.8% 9.0% 0.91 1.80
Sale CWS 158.1 2.73 2.97 1.05 63.6% 26.1% 5.5% 0.80 1.47
Albers MIN 17.1 0.00 4.95 0.40 100.0% 6.9% 1.7% 0.00 1.24
Happ TOR 44.0 5.11 5.12 1.50 22.2% 17.1% 12.1% 0.82 0.68
Hernandez TBR 131.0 4.95 3.65 1.33 22.7% 17.3% 5.2% 1.37 2.13
Hernandez SEA 173.2 2.28 2.79 1.08 72.0% 26.0% 4.8% 0.62 1.84
Perez TEX 68.0 3.44 4.13 1.29 54.5% 16.2% 7.2% 1.06 1.82
Mejia NYM 24.1 2.22 2.61 1.07 50.0% 22.5% 3.1% 0.74 2.80
Volquez SDP 136.2 5.80 4.46 1.62 40.0% 17.8% 10.4% 0.86 1.63
Keuchel HOU 114.0 4.97 3.75 1.50 40.0% 17.5% 7.1% 1.34 2.22
Richards LAA 93.2 4.04 3.56 1.23 37.5% 16.4% 6.4% 0.67 2.47
Jimenez CLE 122.2 4.11 4.39 1.47 34.8% 21.4% 12.1% 1.10 1.22
Straily OAK 107.1 4.19 4.20 1.22 47.4% 18.9% 7.6% 0.92 0.88

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at PHI) – Today’s slate is loaded with six ace-types including a pair facing each other so you might start planning to spend big bucks on your arm(s) tonight. There doesn’t seem to be a great path to victory that doesn’t include high-dollar arms. What can I really say about Kershaw that we don’t know already? He’s amazing and unquestionably baseball’s best pitcher right now. You’re paying an arm and a leg to get him in your lineup, but damn is it worth it!

felix-hernandez-300x200

Felix Hernandez, SEA (at TEX) – In his three starts against them this year, Felix’s best came whilst in Texas with a 7 IP/2 ER outing during which he fanned seven and got saddled with a no-decision against Derek Holland. Even with a rough two starts ago against Toronto, Hernandez has a 1.42 ERA in his last eight including 55 Ks in 57 IP.

Chris Sale, CWS (at MIN) – Sale’s actually had one of his worst outings against the Twins this year going 5 IP/4 ER in a loss back on June 19th, but his career 1.85 ERA/0.88 WHIP against them suggests that outing is more of a blip than a new level of performance. He gave up just two earned in 20 IP against them last year. Sale’s quietly having the best year of his career and yet he’s stuck with an 8-11 record which gets to the heart of why you have to be careful when investing in him at sites that heavily reward wins.

Mat Latos, CIN (at MIL) – Like Sale, Latos is also quietly having a really strong season, but he’s been much more well-supported evidenced by his 12-3 record. Latos had his second-worst outing against the Brewers back on May 11th, but the composition of that team was quite a bit different as it also included Ryan Braun. They’ve been the fourth-worst team by wOBA in August scoring just 3.4 R/G after back-to-back 10-run games against Seattle last weekend.

garrett-richards-300x200

Garrett Richards, LAA (v. HOU) – Richards rejoined the rotation on July 27th and he’s put together four strong starts with a 2.42 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 2.7 K/BB in 26 IP. He’s done this against solid competition, too, facing Oakland, Texas, Toronto, and New York. The Astros will replace the Yankees as the easiest opponent on his slate. He’s still really cheap so I really like the idea of pairing him with a superstar at sites using multiple pitchers. Either him or this guy…

Jenrry Mejia, NYM (at SD) – I love what I’ve seen from Mejia in his short four-start sample so far this year. When you also consider that he’s doing it with bone chips in his elbow that need to be cleaned out this offseason, it’s that much more impressive. Mejia had been beating up on cupcakes until squaring off against the Dodgers in LA on Monday and he held his own. His breaking stuff is particularly impressive as it really adds some punch to his mid-90s velocity. The Padres are terrible against righties this year and particularly this month with a .273 wOBA (29th). DraftKings is the only site pricing Mejia at something commensurate with his skill and he’s still a good buy there.

Doug Fister, DET (v. KC) – The Royals have been doing a great Pittsburgh Pirates imitation surging up the standings despite a distinct inability to actually hit the ball all that well. They are coming off of a doubleheader sweep of the Tigers in which they scored a whopping five runs so even if Wade Davis miraculously shuts down the Tigers yet again, I still like Fister for a quality effort. He went 8 IP/3 ER against them back on June 10th in a losing effort.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

stephen-strasburg-300x200

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at ATL) / Mike Minor, ATL (v. WAS) – Two of the best going head-to-head makes it particularly difficult to select either if wins are counted significantly or worse yet if losses hurt as at some sites. Both are having the best year of their short careers, though Strasburg’s paltry 6-9 record doesn’t really show it. The two squared off on August 5th and served up a pair of gems in no-decisions with Stras going 7 IP/2 ER (and 9 Ks) and Minor falling an inning shy of him at 6 IP/2 ER. I expect more of the same tonight and possibly even better, but with runs in short order don’t bank on a win from either.

Martin Perez, TEX (v. SEA) – Perez is surging, though some would say it’s competition-based as he’s had the Angels twice and then the Astros en route to a 1.59 ERA in 22.7 IP with 19 Ks and a 2-0 record, but the progress from the former super-prospect is encouraging. The M’s have been no pushover of late, but it’s mostly come against righties with a 21st-ranked wOBA of .291 in August against lefties.

andrew-albers-300x200

Andrew Albers, MIN (v. CWS) – The out-of-nowhere Albers looks to extend his 17.3 scoreless inning streak as he has started his MLB career with back-to-back scoreless efforts. The 27-year old lefty is far from special though his first two (KC and CLE) might disagree. On paper it gets even easier tonight as the White Sox have been horrid against lefties on the season, though they’ve managed a modicum of damage against them this month en route to just-above average wOBA of .317. With just two MLB starts under his belt and no prospect status to speak of, he remains very cheap.

Dan Straily, OAK (v. CLE) – His inconsistency has been maddening this year, but he’s really good when he’s on and the Indians have been horrible against righties this month with an MLB-worst .258 wOBA which includes a 23% strikeout rate. Straily has actually been worse in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark with a 4.33 ERA (4.10 on the road), but his skills aren’t too bad with a 2.4 K/BB ratio in 43.7 IP.

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.

Edinson Volquez, SD

ADVANCED METRICS: August 17th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Davis 0.417 6.79 0.333 3.90 0.282 0.781 0.373 4.22 0.312 97.05 62.6%
Fister 0.285 3.80 0.340 3.38 0.260 0.698 0.312 3.33 0.265 103.63 64.6%
Bettis 0.358 4.91 0.342 5.19 0.275 0.785 0.208 6.23 0.226 85.67 61.9%
Norris 0.375 5.11 0.284 2.47 0.265 0.751 0.311 3.86 0.269 98.58 64.1%
Kershaw 0.201 1.43 0.246 2.01 0.238 0.695 0.233 2.43 0.182 105.84 66.1%
Kendrick 0.312 4.22 0.345 4.75 0.269 0.726 0.299 3.96 0.273 96.88 65.1%
Strasburg 0.304 3.90 0.254 2.02 0.257 0.751 0.264 3.08 0.205 99.43 63.3%
Minor 0.254 2.41 0.293 3.07 0.220 0.643 0.270 3.09 0.223 99.00 66.4%
Latos 0.333 3.12 0.285 3.04 0.249 0.703 0.307 2.94 0.241 100.21 66.0%
Gallardo 0.353 4.90 0.334 4.95 0.251 0.727 0.315 4.04 0.270 97.87 60.2%
Sale 0.188 1.87 0.300 2.97 0.247 0.697 0.285 2.93 0.222 108.59 66.9%
Albers 0.149 0.00 0.077 0.00 0.240 0.653 0.113 2.75 0.105 105.50 67.8%
Happ 0.293 3.77 0.349 5.46 0.286 0.778 0.279 4.38 0.241 96.00 61.1%
Hernandez 0.392 6.49 0.283 3.32 0.255 0.755 0.312 4.45 0.280 93.68 65.2%
Hernandez 0.295 2.59 0.276 1.97 0.263 0.745 0.309 2.49 0.237 104.00 64.4%
Perez 0.319 2.16 0.326 3.88 0.232 0.670 0.278 4.20 0.251 91.73 64.2%
Mejia 0.324 2.79 0.265 1.88 0.240 0.669 0.296 2.67 0.242 93.50 67.6%
Volquez 0.363 6.27 0.351 5.35 0.235 0.678 0.330 4.12 0.280 96.88 60.6%
Keuchel 0.358 5.20 0.367 4.90 0.241 0.704 0.328 4.46 0.290 74.88 64.6%
Richards 0.308 3.62 0.287 4.81 0.233 0.669 0.283 3.48 0.247 39.61 62.7%
Jimenez 0.319 3.69 0.351 4.70 0.247 0.717 0.292 4.37 0.244 97.57 60.7%
Straily 0.332 5.19 0.277 3.40 0.249 0.722 0.274 3.91 0.237 88.26 65.5%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 17th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily%20pitcher%20chart%202

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.