Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 2nd, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 2nd, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chacin | COL | 127.0 | 3.54 | 4.40 | 1.25 | 45.0% | 14.6% | 7.1% | 0.28 | 1.62 | |
| Cole | PIT | 55.2 | 3.56 | 3.84 | 1.13 | 44.4% | 16.6% | 5.4% | 0.65 | 1.87 | |
| Medlen | ATL | 125.0 | 3.74 | 4.09 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 17.2% | 6.2% | 0.86 | 1.38 | |
| Martin | PHI | MLB Debut | |||||||||
| Harang | SEA | 95.2 | 4.89 | 4.07 | 1.23 | 41.2% | 17.4% | 4.4% | 1.41 | 0.88 | |
| Tillman | BAL | 126.2 | 3.62 | 4.23 | 1.30 | 47.6% | 19.8% | 9.0% | 1.49 | 0.96 | |
| Santiago | CWS | 100.0 | 3.33 | 3.96 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 24.4% | 11.2% | 0.99 | 0.77 | |
| Fister | DET | 135.0 | 3.67 | 3.31 | 1.20 | 52.4% | 18.3% | 4.2% | 0.67 | 2.39 | |
| Davis | KCR | 104.2 | 5.50 | 4.32 | 1.75 | 30.0% | 19.4% | 9.7% | 1.12 | 1.18 | |
| Gee | NYM | 124.1 | 4.13 | 4.15 | 1.37 | 42.9% | 17.5% | 6.5% | 1.23 | 1.20 | |
| Jimenez | CLE | 112.1 | 4.17 | 4.39 | 1.43 | 33.3% | 21.8% | 12.4% | 1.20 | 1.16 | |
| Fernandez | MIA | 119.2 | 2.71 | 3.41 | 1.04 | 55.0% | 25.9% | 8.8% | 0.60 | 1.36 | |
| Miller | STL | 116.1 | 2.79 | 3.24 | 1.11 | 45.0% | 26.4% | 6.8% | 0.85 | 0.85 | |
| Arroyo | CIN | 138.0 | 3.26 | 4.40 | 1.14 | 57.1% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 1.17 | 1.21 | |
| Delgado | ARI | 53.2 | 2.85 | 3.86 | 1.27 | 44.4% | 17.4% | 4.6% | 1.17 | 1.36 | |
| Lester | BOS | 139.0 | 4.27 | 3.92 | 1.33 | 36.4% | 20.1% | 8.0% | 1.10 | 1.43 | |
| Bumgarner | SFG | 140.0 | 2.76 | 3.38 | 0.95 | 71.4% | 24.6% | 7.1% | 0.77 | 1.24 | |
| Archer | TBR | 67.2 | 2.39 | 4.46 | 1.05 | 63.6% | 17.3% | 9.2% | 0.67 | 1.28 | |
| Cosart | HOU | 21.0 | 0.86 | 5.65 | 1.14 | 100.0% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 0.00 | 2.47 | |
| Deduno | MIN | 76.1 | 3.18 | 4.12 | 1.27 | 58.3% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 0.47 | 3.17 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 141.0 | 3.19 | 3.61 | 1.04 | 66.7% | 18.4% | 4.1% | 0.89 | 1.57 | |
| Gorzelanny | MIL | 63.2 | 2.83 | 3.52 | 1.12 | 40.0% | 23.4% | 9.4% | 0.99 | 1.41 | |
| Redmond | TOR | 28.1 | 3.81 | 3.46 | 1.02 | 25.0% | 25.9% | 7.8% | 1.91 | 0.60 | |
| Hanson | LAA | 57.2 | 5.15 | 4.38 | 1.51 | 27.3% | 18.6% | 8.5% | 1.40 | 0.81 | |
| Ogando | TEX | 65.0 | 3.05 | 4.61 | 1.26 | 33.3% | 16.9% | 8.8% | 0.83 | 0.88 | |
| Milone | OAK | 129.2 | 4.10 | 4.25 | 1.26 | 42.9% | 17.9% | 6.0% | 1.39 | 0.75 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | 147.0 | 4.65 | 3.66 | 1.31 | 36.4% | 20.5% | 5.6% | 1.41 | 1.27 | |
| Cashner | SDP | 111.1 | 3.88 | 4.08 | 1.27 | 35.3% | 16.9% | 7.8% | 0.81 | 1.78 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
Gerrit Cole, PIT (v. COL) – Cole showed flashes of his greatness in June and the 3.70 ERA was fine, but the meager 11% K rate left plenty to be desired. It came together very nicely in July, though, with a 3.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 21% K rate. The Rockies are a completely different team on the road and it’ll be even tougher in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park.
Jhoulys Chacin, COL (at PIT) – Chacin is markedly better away from Coors with a 1.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 2.4 K/BB ratio compared to 4.38-1.28-1.8 at home. His strikeout rate surges from 11% to 21%, too. As I mentioned, PNC Park is very pitcher-friendly and the Pirates have the fourth-worst wOBA against righties at home (.284).
Doug Fister, DET (v. CWS) – Since allowing six earned in three of four starts to end June and start July, Fister has rebounded with three gems posting a 1.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 20% K rate, and 4.0 K/BB in 20 IP. The White Sox offer a perfect opportunity for Fister to stay hot.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. CLE) – He just keeps getting better with each passing start. He just finished a brilliant July with a 2.06 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 40 Ks, and a 4.0 K/BB ratio in 35 innings. The Indians are a solid offense, but you don’t worry about matchups too much with aces and Fernandez has shown in a remarkably short time of four months that he’s an ace-level arm.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. MIN) – Zimm’s been rough in his last two allowing 12 runs in 8.7 IP. Most of the damage was done in a 2 IP/7 ER outing against the Dodgers, but Davey Johnson left him in a little long against the Mets leading to a 6.7 IP/5 ER outing. I’m still confident in Zimm and the Brewers have the 16th-ranked wOBA against righties at .308.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (at TB) – Bumgarner is excellent, but the Rays are baseball’s best team against lefties so I’d be careful here. MadBum has a 1.89 ERA in his last nine outings with 60 Ks in 62 IP of work. He’s gone seven or more in eight of the nine outings, too.
Chris Archer, TB (v. SF) – Archer’s had amazing results this year (2.39 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), but the skills are a little light with a 17% K rate and 1.9 K/BB ratio. His stuff is good enough for more within the strikeout rate, but he’s still learning on the job. The Giants have a meager .300 wOBA on the road against righties which ranks 19th in the league.
Chris Tillman, BAL (v. SEA) – I’d been a little skeptical on Tillman a while back because he’d been giving up far too many home runs, but over the last two months he’s cut his rate from 2.0 to 1.0 HR/9. He’s won his last three with a 2.14 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 21 innings of work. I still don’t love him here because of the Seattle offense, but I’m starting to trust him more long-term.
Samuel Deduno, MIN (v. HOU) – Deduno makes his fifth-straight road start and he’s actually gone seven innings in the last three winning all of them. He has a 2.67 ERA in the 27 innings, but his 1.3 K/BB ratio isn’t terribly special. That said, all you have to do is watch a start of his and you’ll see how good the stuff is.
Dillon Gee, NYM (v. KC) – Gee can’t seem to avoid the disaster outings. Every time he gets on a run, he throws in a stinker of 5 ER and cancels out a bunch of the good work. A lot of it has to do with home run damage. He’s given up eight of his 17 homers in four of his six 5 ER outings. The skills are solid and this matchup is even better.
Shelby Miller, STL (at CIN) – Miller’s had typical rookie ups and downs, but he’s ended every month with a sub-3.00 ERA. He actually hasn’t faced the Reds yet. They haven’t been much more than a league average offense this year so despite some imposing names, it’s not that tough of a matchup. The downside with Miller of late is that he hasn’t been going deep into game. He hasn’t topped six innings in any of his last nine outings and he’s gone fewer than six in five of them.
Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE (at MIA) – It’s a good matchup and he’s actually been really good the last two months with a 2.97 ERA in 60.7 IP, but I still have a hard time clicking his name when making a lineup. I’d much prefer him as a secondary option as opposed to my only guy.
Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. STL) – Arroyo has one bad outing in his last 10 (4 IP/7 ER at OAK), but he still has a 2.73 ERA in that stretch. He also has a 1.11 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in those 66 IP. The Cards are always tough, but he has a 3.79 ERA in three starts against them including going 6 IP/2 ER back on June 9th. He still has a meager 14% K rate, but you can’t deny how good he has been this year.
Jon Lester, BOS (v. ARI) – Lester finally sharpened up in July after an ugly June. He had a 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 23% K rate, and 8% BB rate in 31.7 IP. Arizona is 21st in wOBA against lefties with a .290 on the road. His price is still pretty high considering his composite 4.27 ERA, but he’s become more trustworthy again.
Tom Gorzelanny, MIL (v. WAS) – He’s given up 9 ER in 11 IP over his last two starts, but the Nats are baseball’s worst team against lefties with a .267 wOBA so it’s hard to completely ignore Gorzelanny. He actually gave up just four runs (none of them earned) over 12 innings in the two starts prior to the All-Star break.
Tommy Milone, OAK (v. TEX) – He’s just a different pitcher at home: 2.97 ERA at home, 5.00 ERA on the road. He’s been that way for both of his years as a big leaguer.
Andrew Cashner, SD (v. NYY) – He’s been Milone-esque this year: 2.50 ERA at home, 5.02 ERA on the road. His skills are much better at home, too, with a 3.3 K/BB ratio in Petco compared to a 1.7 on the road.
USE CAUTION:
Alexi Ogando, TEX (at OAK) – He’s building back up after returning from the disabled list, but he hasn’t gone more than five innings in his two starts back. The strikeouts haven’t been there either with just three in 9.7 IP.
Randall Delgado, ARI (at BOS) – Delgado’s been unquestionably great this year, but he’s had some home run issues (1.2 HR/9) and I don’t see the upside of starting him in Fenway.
CC Sabathia, NYY (at SD) – I realize it’s a start in Petco, but he’s been so brutal lately that I just don’t know how you could confidently invest in him. He has back-to-back 5 IP/7 ER outings and he gave up eight the start before that, thankfully only three earned. Don’t get hung up on the name value.
Kris Medlen, ATL (at PHI) – He’s allowed seven or more hits in nine of his last 10 starts. He’s lucky to have a 4.03 ERA and his 1.41 WHIP tells the real story.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (at MIN) – I see the three gems, but I also see a sub-1.0 K/BB ratio and far too many walks. MIN isn’t a killer matchup, but I’m still being very careful with him.
Hector Santiago, CWS (at DET) – I think I mentioned this the last time he faced Detroit: I’m a fan of Santiago long-term, but just not against Detroit. They have the second-best wOBA against lefties at .342 and they got to him for six runs (three earned) in six innings of work back on July 23rd. He walked five and gave up five hits in that outing, too.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Todd Redmond, TOR (at LAA) – He’s shown some strikeout capability, but he’s been worst against BAL and LAD – his two toughest outings so I don’t like him here.
Tommy Hanson, LAA (v. TOR) – After all the raving about his first start, he threw it all away with an implosion in OAK.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Ethan Martin, PHI (v. ATL)
- Wade Davis, KC (at NYM)
- Aaron Harang, SEA (at BAL)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 2nd, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Chacin | 0.326 | 4.19 | 0.280 | 3.06 | 0.242 | 0.698 | 0.292 | 3.15 | 0.252 | 93.60 | 64.3% | ||
| Cole | 0.300 | 3.65 | 0.270 | 3.64 | 0.267 | 0.761 | 0.281 | 3.45 | 0.245 | 87.44 | 64.4% | ||
| Medlen | 0.343 | 4.19 | 0.342 | 3.36 | 0.258 | 0.703 | 0.318 | 3.77 | 0.275 | 96.33 | 65.2% | ||
| Martin | 0.252 | 0.738 | |||||||||||
| Harang | 0.341 | 5.54 | 0.322 | 4.00 | 0.277 | 0.791 | 0.283 | 4.32 | 0.259 | 93.41 | 65.2% | ||
| Tillman | 0.304 | 3.45 | 0.350 | 3.98 | 0.249 | 0.732 | 0.276 | 4.72 | 0.248 | 104.90 | 62.4% | ||
| Santiago | 0.348 | 2.86 | 0.304 | 3.58 | 0.268 | 0.774 | 0.272 | 4.13 | 0.217 | 71.00 | 61.9% | ||
| Fister | 0.275 | 3.96 | 0.347 | 3.30 | 0.254 | 0.697 | 0.308 | 3.31 | 0.261 | 104.19 | 64.7% | ||
| Davis | 0.415 | 7.04 | 0.341 | 3.96 | 0.235 | 0.682 | 0.375 | 4.29 | 0.313 | 96.85 | 62.3% | ||
| Gee | 0.394 | 5.33 | 0.291 | 3.26 | 0.254 | 0.686 | 0.305 | 4.27 | 0.271 | 91.52 | 65.1% | ||
| Jimenez | 0.305 | 3.72 | 0.356 | 4.86 | 0.234 | 0.620 | 0.283 | 4.52 | 0.238 | 97.19 | 60.8% | ||
| Fernandez | 0.276 | 3.41 | 0.244 | 2.05 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 0.250 | 2.99 | 0.192 | 90.40 | 66.4% | ||
| Miller | 0.313 | 3.08 | 0.256 | 2.59 | 0.254 | 0.730 | 0.287 | 3.04 | 0.223 | 98.25 | 67.3% | ||
| Arroyo | 0.353 | 4.06 | 0.259 | 2.49 | 0.284 | 0.761 | 0.260 | 4.24 | 0.248 | 91.86 | 66.6% | ||
| Delgado | 0.323 | 2.31 | 0.331 | 3.26 | 0.284 | 0.815 | 0.311 | 3.88 | 0.278 | 90.44 | 67.1% | ||
| Lester | 0.367 | 5.40 | 0.316 | 4.04 | 0.258 | 0.704 | 0.300 | 4.04 | 0.256 | 106.00 | 63.5% | ||
| Bumgarner | 0.219 | 2.57 | 0.266 | 2.86 | 0.290 | 0.791 | 0.228 | 3.17 | 0.186 | 104.90 | 63.8% | ||
| Archer | 0.321 | 3.38 | 0.193 | 0.99 | 0.262 | 0.700 | 0.216 | 3.94 | 0.190 | 97.18 | 62.3% | ||
| Cosart | 0.290 | 1.54 | 0.237 | 0.00 | 0.239 | 0.692 | 0.210 | 3.95 | 0.188 | 106.67 | 58.8% | ||
| Deduno | 2.68 | 3.90 | 0.230 | 0.660 | 0.271 | 3.88 | 0.241 | 100.00 | 60.8% | ||||
| Zimmermann | 0.308 | 2.90 | 0.274 | 3.54 | 0.254 | 0.715 | 0.261 | 3.41 | 0.230 | 95.33 | 68.8% | ||
| Gorzelanny | 0.281 | 2.14 | 0.282 | 3.19 | 0.212 | 0.619 | 0.245 | 3.81 | 0.204 | 26.38 | 62.5% | ||
| Redmond | 0.260 | 3.38 | 0.335 | 4.38 | 0.274 | 0.765 | 0.206 | 4.95 | 0.192 | 67.57 | 62.4% | ||
| Hanson | 0.378 | 5.97 | 0.336 | 3.86 | 0.254 | 0.752 | 0.315 | 4.60 | 0.277 | 90.82 | 62.6% | ||
| Ogando | 0.254 | 1.77 | 0.380 | 5.25 | 0.244 | 0.709 | 0.269 | 4.07 | 0.237 | 92.00 | 63.5% | ||
| Milone | 0.318 | 6.00 | 0.333 | 3.64 | 0.255 | 0.715 | 0.277 | 4.32 | 0.252 | 101.10 | 64.3% | ||
| Sabathia | 0.306 | 4.33 | 0.350 | 4.77 | 0.253 | 0.734 | 0.307 | 4.13 | 0.267 | 104.14 | 66.7% | ||
| Cashner | 0.321 | 4.31 | 0.304 | 3.57 | 0.244 | 0.684 | 0.283 | 3.86 | 0.248 | 80.00 | 62.6% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 2nd, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window