Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 4th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-08-04 17:24:39

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Corey Kluber CLE (v. CIN) – Despite the small slate of games, we’re loaded with a bevy of useful options on the mound including four studs. Kluber earns the nod over Scherzer as the top guy because he’s coming cheaper at just about every outlet despite offering equal upside. Kluber’s May and June are the stuff of legends including a three-start run of late that has seen him post a 0.68 ERA in 26.7 IP with 28 Ks and just one walk. He went nine in each of his last two, but only has one complete game to show for it because the first of those outings went 14 innings before a resolution. Kluber’s going deep into games, missing bats, and keeping runs off the board. What more do you need?

Max Scherzer DET (at NYY) – Remember when Scherzer allowed 10 ER against KC back in mid-June? Yeah, that wasn’t fun, but he’s allowed just 11 ER in seven starts since with a 2.08 ERA in 47.7 IP with 56 Ks, just 12 BBs, and a 5-0 record. His 3.27 ERA on the season doesn’t exactly scream “ace” given some of the performances we’ve seen this year, but consider that he has allowed 32% of his earned runs in just two outings this year. He has a 2.40 ERA in his other 20 starts.

Zack Greinke LAD (v. LAA) – Even with a tough matchup like the Angels, it’s easy to feel confident in Greinke, especially at home. He has a 2.52 ERA in 60.7 home innings with a filthy 0.99 WHIP, 12.0 K9, and 7.4 K:BB ratio (compared to 2.75, 8.2, and 4.0 on the road). Meanwhile, he just wrapped up a huge July during which he posted a 2.27 ERA with 42 Ks in 35.7 IP over five starts. The curve could be Greinke’s key to success, though. The Angels have just a .501 OPS against righty curves, 25th in the league. He should look to use it more than just the 12% he’s done so far this season.

Garrett Richards LAA (at LAD) – A couple of 4 ER outings to close the month kept Richards from a MASSIVE July, but his 2.70 ERA in six starts tells you how good the other four were. He also notched 44 Ks and just eight walks in 43.4 IP during the month. These two LA offenses will have their work cut out for them on Monday night and we’ll see strength v. strength with Richards and the Dodgers. His slider yields a disgusting .365 OPS with a 45% K rate, devastating both righties and lefties, yet the Dodgers had a .682 OPS against righty sliders which sits third in baseball.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Jeff Samardzija OAK (v. TB) – Nothing like a pair of starts against Houston to get your strikeouts back on track! Samardzija hadn’t topped five punchouts in his first three outings with the A’s before notching 13 in his last two starts (14.7 IP). The Rays had their July surge that nearly kept them from trading David Price, but they haven’t exactly morphed into a juggernaut offense. They had a .694 OPS against righties entering July, and they have a .719 OPS since July 1st. It’s an improvement for sure, but I’m not exactly avoided them with my starters.

Tanner Roark WAS (v. BAL) – Roark had a fantastic July with five straight 7 IP outings, including four in a row with just one earned run (his first of the month saw him allow 4 ER to CHC). I’d have been extremely skeptical if you told me he was going to lower his 2.98 ERA in July, but he did just that dropping it to 2.74 on the season while adding something of an improved strikeout element with 29 in the 35 July innings (7.5 K9, after 6.7 in 100 IP before July). He was last above 4.00 ERA after a 4 IP/7 ER shellacking by the Phillies on May 3rd and since then he has a 2.20 ERA in 98 IP with a 3.8 K:BB ratio.

Alex Cobb TB (at OAK) – Looking for somewhere to really go against the grain today? Cobb might be your pick. First off, facing Oakland likely takes him off the radar of many given how absurd they’ve been offensively. Secondly, there are several other, bigger names likely to draw the attention tonight. This leaves us with Cobb, who just closed out a brilliant July with back-to-back double-digit strikeout efforts resulting in a 2.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 36 Ks in 32.3 IP. He devastated St. Louis and Milwaukee in the last two to the tune of a 0.60 ERA and 22 Ks against just two walks. He’ll also save you some money compared to several of these ace-level arms.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Alfredo Simon CIN (at CLE) – Everyone waiting for that shoe to drop on Simon continues to wait as he just continues to be effective. Every time he runs into trouble, he bounces back nicely. Even though he’s on a three-game losing streak, the latest of those was a hard-luck 7 IP/2 ER gem that saw no run support and poor bullpen performance behind him. Cleveland pops righties (.751 OPS if fourth in MLB), but Simon doesn’t have a major platoon split so he shouldn’t be as susceptible as some righties. I don’t love him in this spot, especially with so many strong options available, but if I were forced into him as an SP2 because of budget or something, I wouldn’t be completely averse to using him.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at WAS) – Gausman is a perfect example of someone learning how to pitch in the majors on the job. Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay have all ripped him for 5 ER outings, but he still has a 3.70 ERA in 10 starts because he has a 1.67 ERA in the seven starts where he hasn’t allowed 5 ER. Despite the mostly-positive results, the skills have been thoroughly unimpressive with just a 5.9 K9 and 1.8 K:BB ratio. I love the talent and think there is a lot more in those supporting skills, but they may only be seen in spurts the rest of the way. He’s a gamble against Washington, but the stuff is there for some serious upside.

Brandon McCarthy NYY (v. DET) – I don’t think this is so much because he was traded from Arizona as opposed to simple regression on numbers and skills that deserved a better fate. He’s 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA in four starts as a Yankee, but he had been pitching much closer to a 2.55 level than the 5.01 ERA he left Arizona with in early July. The Tigers will be his toughest test with his new club and I’d expect something more like his 6 IP/4 ER outing in Texas last time out as opposed to the 6 IP/1 ER (with 9 Ks) effort against Cincy. You could really take a gamble with him at somewhere like FanDuel as your only pitcher and then stack your lineup. If he gives you something like his 14-point average over his last three and the aces are all more in the 17-18 range instead of the 19-20, then you could really get an edge and put yourself in great position in the GPPs with some hot bats.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

• Nick Martinez TEX (at CWS)
• Hector Noesi CWS (v. TEX)

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

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