Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 5th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 5th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greinke | LAD | 105.0 | 3.43 | 3.96 | 1.23 | 47.0% | 18.9% | 7.2% | 0.86 | 1.47 | |
| Wainwright | STL | 168.2 | 2.61 | 2.90 | 1.04 | 57.0% | 22.8% | 2.9% | 0.43 | 1.92 | |
| Minor | ATL | 144.0 | 2.75 | 3.38 | 1.01 | 64.0% | 23.6% | 4.9% | 0.94 | 0.82 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | 130.1 | 3.04 | 3.29 | 1.08 | 57.0% | 25.4% | 7.8% | 0.83 | 1.55 | |
| Sanchez | DET | 111.0 | 2.59 | 3.26 | 1.18 | 61.0% | 26.3% | 7.7% | 0.41 | 1.28 | |
| Kluber | CLE | 114.2 | 3.77 | 3.19 | 1.21 | 33.0% | 23.3% | 5.3% | 0.94 | 1.62 | |
| Pettitte | NYY | 117.2 | 4.28 | 4.16 | 1.35 | 37.0% | 15.8% | 5.7% | 0.99 | 1.43 | |
| Quintana | CWS | 131.2 | 3.62 | 4.03 | 1.23 | 32.0% | 19.0% | 7.1% | 0.96 | 1.19 | |
| Correia | MIN | 124.1 | 4.49 | 4.51 | 1.42 | 38.0% | 12.8% | 5.3% | 1.38 | 1.36 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | 138.2 | 4.22 | 4.97 | 1.40 | 55.0% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 1.49 | 1.21 | |
| Lackey | BOS | 120.0 | 3.23 | 3.36 | 1.19 | 58.0% | 21.7% | 5.0% | 1.28 | 1.52 | |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | 14.1 | 3.77 | 4.00 | 0.98 | 100.0% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 1.26 | 0.48 | |
| Perez | TEX | 52.2 | 3.93 | 4.32 | 1.41 | 44.0% | 13.9% | 6.5% | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Williams | LAA | 109.2 | 4.60 | 4.54 | 1.40 | 47.0% | 13.8% | 7.7% | 1.31 | 1.44 | |
| Dickey | TOR | 146.2 | 4.66 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 43.0% | 17.7% | 8.1% | 1.47 | 1.04 | |
| Iwakuma | SEA | 150.0 | 2.76 | 3.24 | 0.97 | 57.0% | 22.5% | 4.1% | 1.26 | 1.31 | |
| Thornburg | MIL | 24.1 | 2.22 | 4.18 | 1.19 | 100.0% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 0.37 | 1.04 | |
| Gaudin | SFG | 81.2 | 2.64 | 3.95 | 1.14 | 56.0% | 20.7% | 8.7% | 0.55 | 0.98 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
John Lackey, BOS (at HOU) – Lackey’s been off a bit of late thanks to a hit frenzy as he’s allowed eight or more hits in each of his last three outings thanks in part to a .375 BABIP. Of course a bout against Houston is the #1 doctor-recommended remedy for pitching struggles. Their .287 wOBA against righties is baseball’s second-worst figure while their 25% strikeout rate is still in a commanding “lead” for the top spot.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. TOR) – Iwakuma went through a four-game stretch where he allowed 10 homers and allowed 18 ER (6.75 ERA in 24 IP), but he’s allowed just one homer in the four starts since then posting a 1.75 ERA, 24% K rate, and 4.5 K/BB ratio in 25.7 IP. The Blue Jays offense doesn’t exactly become inept on the road, but they certainly hit less going from a .338 wOBA to .303 and Safeco allows the 19th-highest OPS at 704. Plus Iwakuma is insane at home: 2.49 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 25% K, and 15.2 K/BB (!!!) ratio in 79.7 IP.
Mike Minor, ATL (at WAS) – The only real downside to Minor today is the fact that he’s facing Strasburg, but he still gets a “Best Buy” distinction because the Nats have been baseball’s worst team against lefties and he’s absolutely on fire. He was great in July posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 41.3 IP with a 25% K rate and 4.9 K/BB ratio.
Adam Wainwright, STL (v. LAD) – Waino has had a pair of less-than-stellar outings his last two times out (4.50 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), but he’s gone seven innings both times with 14 Ks and a 7.0 K/BB. I’m still bumping him down a bit because of how hot the Dodgers have been of late. They are fifth in wOBA since the All-Star break with a .330 mark.
Jose Quintana, CWS (v. NYY) / Andy Pettitte, NYY (at CWS) – The two worst AL teams against lefties square off in this one and while I prefer Quintana, both pitchers are appealing here. It could turn into a pitcher’s duel which makes finding a win tougher, but the bang-for-buck is just too much for these two to get too focused on the win. Quintana put together a huge July: 2.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 24% K rate, and 3.8 K/BB ratio in 38.7 IP. Pettitte has been particularly sharp in his last two visiting the Rangers and Dodgers and allowing 2 ER to each in six and seven innings, respectively.
Chad Gaudin, SF (v. MIL) – Gaudin bounced back from his worst start of the season (3.7 IP/6 ER) with a 7 IP/1 ER outing in Philly. He’s been insane as a starter this year posting a 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 20% K rate, and 2.7 K/BB ratio in 51 IP. The Brewers have been league average against righties this year even when they had Ryan Braun plus Gaudin has a 1.96 ERA in San Fran.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (at CLE) – The Tigers and Indians start a huge four-game series with both teams absolutely on fire (both 9-1 in last 10). Sanchez gets an edge over his opponent Kluber not only because he’s been better this year in general, but also because the Indians aren’t quite as fierce as the Tigers offensively. The Indians are 10th in wOBA against righties at .322. Sanchez faced them at the beginning of July going 5 IP/1 ER with four strikeouts. It was a shortened outing because it was his first off the disabled list.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS(v. ATL) – Strasburg has been great against Atlanta this year with a 1.93 ERA in three starts, but he’s 0-1 thanks to an inept offense (six runs of support in the three outings). That offense is dead last against lefties and they get one of the toughest going right now in Minor. Meanwhile the Braves are on fire with the third-best wOBA against righties since the ASB at .336. The lofty investment of Strasburg just doesn’t carry much upside today, I’d rather spend on one of the other superstars.
USE CAUTION:
Corey Kluber, CLE (v. DET) – Which Kluber v. DET is going to show up tonight: the 4.7 IP/8 ER version or the one who went 6.3 IP the next two times he faced them allowing 2 ER and 3 ER, respectively? Tread lightly here.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. MIN) – I’ve never been much of a fan, but Guthrie has handled the Twins this year: 3.24 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 25 IP over four starts. He’s still always susceptible to the implosion so I’m still a little cautious.
Zack Greinke, LAD (at STL) – After a small lull, the Cards offense is back clicking on all cylinders, that alone bumps Greinke down especially given how prone he is to the disaster start. There’s just no upside here. Even less than Strasburg facing Minor.
Tyler Thornburg, MIL (at SF) – Thornburg was solid in his debut start of 2013 throwing six scoreless against the Cubs. The Giants aren’t much offensively with just 3.1 R/G in July and just 2.5 in their four August games so far.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Kevin Correia, MIN (at KC) – Correia only gave up two runs in six innings against KC in his last outing, but he did allow 10 hits and suffered a no-decision. He’s been hit-and-miss against the Royals this year going 7 IP/3 ER, 5 IP/5 ER, and then the 6 IP/2 ER last time out.
R.A. Dickey, TOR (at SEA) – The M’s are on fire since the break with a .375 wOBA (quite a bit ahead of the Jays at .342), plus they popped Dickey for 7 ER in early May.
Martin Perez, TEX (at LAA) – Perez and Williams were both sharp in a 2-1 battle last time out and yet I don’t trust either. Neither has consistently displayed skills worth trusting this season.
Jerome Williams, LAA (v. TEX) – Eh, still not sold even with his 7.7 IP/1 ER outing against TEX his last time out. He has a 5.27 ERA in 15 starts.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Brett Oberholtzer, HOU (v. BOS)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 5th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Greinke | 0.375 | 4.27 | 0.252 | 2.83 | 0.284 | 0.761 | 0.289 | 3.74 | 0.247 | 99.29 | 61.1% | ||
| Wainwright | 0.274 | 2.90 | 0.279 | 2.32 | 0.266 | 0.723 | 0.310 | 2.29 | 0.245 | 104.48 | 67.8% | ||
| Minor | 0.250 | 2.57 | 0.290 | 2.87 | 0.212 | 0.619 | 0.262 | 3.14 | 0.217 | 99.00 | 66.8% | ||
| Strasburg | 0.311 | 4.21 | 0.266 | 2.13 | 0.252 | 0.738 | 0.265 | 3.33 | 0.209 | 98.86 | 63.1% | ||
| Sanchez | 0.305 | 3.50 | 0.257 | 1.76 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 0.308 | 2.46 | 0.229 | 100.22 | 64.2% | ||
| Kluber | 0.320 | 3.75 | 0.315 | 3.83 | 0.284 | 0.784 | 0.318 | 3.24 | 0.257 | 89.15 | 64.8% | ||
| Pettitte | 0.262 | 3.27 | 0.355 | 4.71 | 0.233 | 0.641 | 0.308 | 3.96 | 0.275 | 95.00 | 65.6% | ||
| Quintana | 0.342 | 3.48 | 0.298 | 3.71 | 0.236 | 0.650 | 0.278 | 3.78 | 0.241 | 102.18 | 62.3% | ||
| Correia | 0.384 | 5.59 | 0.335 | 3.63 | 0.254 | 0.686 | 0.313 | 4.66 | 0.297 | 93.95 | 62.6% | ||
| Guthrie | 0.379 | 4.89 | 0.305 | 3.53 | 0.239 | 0.692 | 0.276 | 5.32 | 0.269 | 101.55 | 63.0% | ||
| Lackey | 0.276 | 2.71 | 0.373 | 3.91 | 0.230 | 0.660 | 0.294 | 3.81 | 0.252 | 97.84 | 65.7% | ||
| Oberholtzer | 0.310 | 1.80 | 0.277 | 4.82 | 0.250 | 0.714 | 0.267 | 3.67 | 0.246 | 52.25 | 68.4% | ||
| Perez | 0.339 | 2.51 | 0.347 | 4.50 | 0.239 | 0.695 | 0.295 | 4.46 | 0.274 | 87.00 | 64.1% | ||
| Williams | 0.373 | 5.40 | 0.324 | 3.93 | 0.262 | 0.741 | 0.288 | 4.79 | 0.271 | 65.15 | 63.3% | ||
| Dickey | 0.360 | 5.40 | 0.304 | 4.03 | 0.249 | 0.732 | 0.265 | 4.86 | 0.244 | 103.22 | 64.2% | ||
| Iwakuma | 0.276 | 2.31 | 0.298 | 3.31 | 0.254 | 0.752 | 0.246 | 3.61 | 0.216 | 92.57 | 68.6% | ||
| Thornburg | 0.239 | 3.46 | 0.341 | 0.84 | 0.262 | 0.700 | 0.274 | 3.41 | 0.231 | 57.57 | 61.3% | ||
| Gaudin | 0.322 | 3.24 | 0.230 | 2.28 | 0.254 | 0.715 | 0.258 | 3.28 | 0.211 | 46.70 | 62.7% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 5th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window