Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 7th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 7th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fister | DET | 143.0 | 3.52 | 3.31 | 1.18 | 54.5% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 0.63 | 2.44 | |
| Salazar | CLE | 6.0 | 1.50 | 2.12 | 0.50 | 100.0% | 33.3% | 4.8% | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Wood | CHC | 138.2 | 3.05 | 4.58 | 1.13 | 63.6% | 17.2% | 8.7% | 0.65 | 0.82 | |
| Hamels | PHI | 149.0 | 3.87 | 3.70 | 1.23 | 56.5% | 21.5% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 1.07 | |
| Koehler | MIA | 87.0 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 1.32 | 30.8% | 16.3% | 8.6% | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Morton | PIT | 48.2 | 4.07 | 3.24 | 1.36 | 11.1% | 17.7% | 5.6% | 0.92 | 3.34 | |
| Medlen | ATL | 131.0 | 3.85 | 3.99 | 1.37 | 36.4% | 17.8% | 6.1% | 1.03 | 1.40 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 147.0 | 3.06 | 3.65 | 1.05 | 68.2% | 18.4% | 4.6% | 0.86 | 1.60 | |
| Chacin | COL | 135.0 | 3.40 | 4.37 | 1.22 | 47.6% | 14.4% | 6.7% | 0.27 | 1.63 | |
| Harvey | NYM | 150.2 | 2.21 | 2.58 | 0.88 | 63.6% | 29.8% | 5.0% | 0.42 | 1.38 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | 152.2 | 4.78 | 3.70 | 1.35 | 30.4% | 20.2% | 5.8% | 1.41 | 1.32 | |
| Santiago | CWS | 107.0 | 3.28 | 3.89 | 1.26 | 53.3% | 24.4% | 10.8% | 1.01 | 0.77 | |
| Deduno | MIN | 82.1 | 3.17 | 4.26 | 1.29 | 61.5% | 13.7% | 9.6% | 0.44 | 3.04 | |
| Duffy | KCR | Debut | |||||||||
| Dempster | BOS | 127.0 | 4.54 | 4.32 | 1.50 | 36.4% | 20.8% | 10.8% | 1.49 | 1.01 | |
| Cosart | HOU | 28.0 | 0.96 | 5.10 | 1.07 | 100.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 0.00 | 2.40 | |
| Nolasco | LAD | 140.1 | 3.78 | 3.89 | 1.23 | 39.1% | 19.2% | 6.0% | 0.96 | 1.19 | |
| Miller | STL | 121.1 | 2.89 | 3.21 | 1.13 | 42.9% | 26.8% | 7.1% | 0.89 | 0.88 | |
| Archer | TBR | 74.2 | 2.65 | 4.51 | 1.08 | 58.3% | 16.9% | 9.3% | 0.84 | 1.31 | |
| Delgado | ARI | 59.2 | 3.17 | 3.81 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 18.3% | 4.5% | 1.36 | 1.19 | |
| Ogando | TEX | 69.0 | 3.26 | 4.88 | 1.32 | 23.1% | 16.1% | 9.9% | 0.78 | 0.83 | |
| Hanson | LAA | 63.0 | 5.29 | 4.59 | 1.54 | 25.0% | 17.5% | 8.9% | 1.43 | 0.78 | |
| Estrada | MIL | 69.1 | 5.32 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 20.7% | 6.0% | 1.82 | 0.96 | |
| Bumgarner | SFG | 147.0 | 2.69 | 3.34 | 0.97 | 72.7% | 25.2% | 7.2% | 0.73 | 1.22 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Hector Santiago, CWS (at NYY) – How frustrating must it be for Santiago to be on the White Sox? He has a 2.75 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 39.3 IP over his last six starts, but yet has just an 0-2 record to show for it. He’s fanned 41 batters with a 2.7 K/BB ratio, too. So why all the confidence? He’s facing the AL’s worst team against lefties with a .286 wOBA (third-worst in baseball). I love the strikeout potential and the favorable price. He’s cheaper than his opponent (Sabathia) at most outlets, too.
Matt Harvey, NYM (v. COL) – Could you even imagine his season numbers if he treated the Marlins like… well, the Marlins? In three starts in Miami he’s failed to go six innings posting an 0-1 record with a 4.50 ERA. He’s the best guy going today, but the only reason he doesn’t hold the top spot is because of price.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (v. MIL) – He has quietly been on fire of late, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last nine outings en route to a 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 3.7 K/BB ratio. He has 67 strikeouts in his 64 innings, too. You have to pay to get him, just like Harvey, but it will almost certainly be well worth it. Grab Santiago if you want to load your offense or Harvey/MadBum if you great at the bargain bin lineup.
Cole Hamels, PHI (v. CHC) – The 4-12 record doesn’t really tell the story with Hamels. Of course it explains why it’s tough to back Phillies pitchers, but Hamels is much better than that record, especially lately. He has a 2.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 5.0 K/BB ratio in his last six outings since the Fourth of July, but he’s netted a mere 2-2 record thanks to terrible offensive and bullpen support.
The Cubs are a bland team against lefties sitting just below league average in wOBA at .300 (average is .306). Hamels is averaging just over seven innings per start here which at least mitigates some of the damage that the pen can do and Jonathan Papelbon has thrown three times in the last four days including yesterday so hopefully he is passed over today should a situation arise.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Doug Fister, DET (at CLE) – After a pair of 6 ER outings (and three in four outings), Fister has been absolutely brilliant in his last four: 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 4.5 K/BB ratio in 28 IP. The Indians put one of those 6 ER outings on him (July 7th), but I’ve still got some confidence in him today. His command – the problem during those 6 ER outings – has been incredible in these last four and with that in check, he will be markedly better today.
Travis Wood, CHC (at PHI) – He’s been hit-or-miss lately with three gems and three bombs in his last six. Unfortunately the bombs have all come in his last four outings, though they were against STL, ARI, and LAD all of whom are markedly better than the Phillies offensively. The Phillies have the 20th-ranked wOBA against lefties with a .299 (and it’s been essentially the same at home at 20th and .296) giving Wood a great chance to get back on track today. Facing Hamels will make it tough to pull a win, though.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. ATL) – Zimm allowed 18 BB in his first 19 starts, but then nine in his last three meaning there has been a noticeable difference during his struggles. After 7 ER and 5 ER outings v. LAD and NYM, he held MIL scoreless for six, but with 4 BB. This is more of a blip than a long-term concern for Zimm and his 8 IP/0 ER against the Braves earlier this year shows the kind of upside he can have even against a strong offense.
Chris Archer, TB (at ARI) – Archer had an amazing July: 0.73 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 37 IP across five starts with two shutouts. He opened August a little shakier allowing four earned to the Giants in seven innings, but few pitchers have been better of late and we’re seeing why Archer was such a highly touted prospect the last few years.
Randall Delgado, ARI (v. TB) – Delgado hadn’t given up more than three earned in any of his starts until his last outing in Boston when he went 6 IP/4 ER, but the 7/1 K/BB ratio definitely impressive. I’ve long been a fan and I love the success he’s been enjoying this year. The Rays do their damage against lefties while being essentially league average against righties.
Jhoulys Chacin, COL (at NYM) – He’s a different pitcher on the road: 1.78 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 50.7 IP not to mention a markedly better strikeout rate of 20% (compared to 11% at home) and a 2.6 K/BB that is up from 1.8 at home. Of course he’s facing Harvey which really puts a win in doubt and why I can only recommend him as a secondary option where a win isn’t a crucial.
Samuel Deduno, MIN (at KC) – The results have been great for Deduno lately (2.74 ERA in his last seven), but the skills have been a little shaky: 11% K rate, 8% BB rate, and 1.4 K/BB ratio. The raw stuff is evident and it should be generating more strikeouts than we’ve seen, but he’s still learning. We’ve seen each team get loose and get shutout in this series so far (13-0 KC on Mon, 7-0 MIN on Tue) so the rubber match will be interesting.
USE CAUTION:
Shelby Miller, STL (v. LAD) – He’s gone six innings just twice in his last eight and he hasn’t topped six since June 1st. The Cards might consciously be holding his innings down, content to get five strong and save some juice for the stretch run. But that doesn’t do us much good. Thankfully his strikeouts supplement the low innings totals, but if he’s going five-plus then he basically has to win to score big.
Ricky Nolasco, LAD (at STL) – He hasn’t gone six innings in any of his last four so while he’s allowed three or fewer in all of them, his scores have been severely mitigated by the meager inning counts. A bout against the Cards isn’t exactly the best remedy to get on track, either.
Ryan Dempster, BOS (at HOU) – He’s been completely “blah” since April with a 4.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 97 IP and even against Houston I can’t get excited about using Dempster. I know plenty will use him because it’s the Astros, but I think there are just many better options available.
Charlie Morton, PIT (v. MIA) – He faced the Marlins and his opponent for today (Koehler) back on July 27th and he was wholly unspectacular, but netted a win after a 5 IP/3 ER effort (nine hits allowed though). Morton spends a lot of time in the zone with modest command so the hits can pile up and that came back to burn him in his last outing when he faced the Cards and gave up 5 ER on 10 hits. His 18% K rate and 3.2 K/BB are both career-highs, though and I think we’ll see improved efforts from both he and his opponent today.
Tom Koehler, MIA (at PIT) – He’s hit-and-miss, but when it’s miss, it’s ruin-your-day miss. In that July 27th outing he allowed five earned in five innings thanks to 12 base runners. In the outing following that, he held the Mets scoreless in six innings, but gave them 10 base runners including five walks. I have been impressed with his 22 Ks over his last four starts (23 IP), though.
Danny Salazar, CLE (v. DET) – A brilliant MLB-debut isn’t enough to convince me to start him against the Tigers. He’s a live arm with plenty of potential, but not an option for me today.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Kris Medlen, ATL (at WAS) – Just sooo many hits allowed. Even his good outings require a lot of wiggling out of trouble.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (v. BOS) – Look past the microscopic ERA (0.96) and notice that he’s a nearly equal K/BB at 0.92. That is never good, especially against an offense like Boston’s.
Alexi Ogando, TEX (at LAA) – He hasn’t gone more than six innings since May 16th. In fairness, he’s only had four starts since then with two DL stints, but he’s gone 5-4.7-4 in his three outings since returning from the DL the most recent time on July 23rd. He just hasn’t been sharp.
CC Sabathia, NYY (at CWS) – He’s been a total nightmare of late allowing 7-7-5 ER in his last three not to mention eight runs in the start before that, though only three were earned. The White Sox are one of baseball’s worst teams against lefties with a .289 wOBA that ranks 27th in the league, but his latest outing was in San Diego and he was trounced so I’m not even buoyed by the favorable matchup. At least his price is sinking.
Marco Estrada, MIL (at SF) – He’s bee brutal this year, but this is his first start since hitting the DL in early June. Let’s see what he’s got before rolling him back out there.
Danny Duffy, KC (v. MIN) – Natural inclination to avoid season debuts of guys returning from injury, let’s see what they’ve got first.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Tommy Hanson, LAA
ADVANCED METRICS: August 7th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Fister | 0.279 | 3.91 | 0.335 | 3.08 | 0.254 | 0.736 | 0.307 | 3.26 | 0.261 | 103.45 | 64.9% | ||
| Salazar | 0.069 | 2.25 | 0.245 | 0.00 | 0.283 | 0.780 | 0.154 | 1.21 | 0.100 | 89.00 | 71.9% | ||
| Wood | 0.238 | 2.41 | 0.288 | 3.29 | 0.239 | 0.698 | 0.242 | 3.68 | 0.211 | 97.86 | 63.6% | ||
| Hamels | 0.306 | 4.66 | 0.327 | 3.67 | 0.233 | 0.696 | 0.303 | 3.50 | 0.250 | 103.96 | 66.6% | ||
| Koehler | 0.328 | 5.80 | 0.322 | 3.20 | 0.242 | 0.695 | 0.290 | 4.02 | 0.255 | 72.84 | 61.8% | ||
| Morton | 0.386 | 6.87 | 0.321 | 2.43 | 0.233 | 0.618 | 0.327 | 4.17 | 0.280 | 83.11 | 63.4% | ||
| Medlen | 0.338 | 4.13 | 0.352 | 3.64 | 0.251 | 0.708 | 0.315 | 3.93 | 0.274 | 96.32 | 65.6% | ||
| Zimmermann | 0.305 | 2.78 | 0.285 | 3.41 | 0.256 | 0.751 | 0.260 | 3.43 | 0.228 | 95.55 | 68.6% | ||
| Chacin | 0.324 | 3.92 | 0.276 | 3.01 | 0.235 | 0.679 | 0.290 | 3.12 | 0.250 | 93.71 | 64.7% | ||
| Harvey | 0.212 | 1.96 | 0.260 | 2.51 | 0.268 | 0.762 | 0.264 | 2.00 | 0.190 | 104.91 | 66.3% | ||
| Sabathia | 0.311 | 4.25 | 0.357 | 4.97 | 0.235 | 0.647 | 0.315 | 4.18 | 0.274 | 104.17 | 66.6% | ||
| Santiago | 0.356 | 3.14 | 0.298 | 3.39 | 0.237 | 0.649 | 0.271 | 4.08 | 0.217 | 72.35 | 62.1% | ||
| Deduno | 2.79 | 3.74 | 0.253 | 0.682 | 0.271 | 3.88 | 0.239 | 100.31 | 60.7% | ||||
| Duffy | 0.251 | 0.693 | |||||||||||
| Dempster | 0.319 | 4.35 | 0.393 | 4.80 | 0.231 | 0.662 | 0.298 | 4.87 | 0.257 | 102.77 | 61.7% | ||
| Cosart | 0.271 | 1.65 | 0.224 | 0.00 | 0.284 | 0.814 | 0.214 | 3.54 | 0.189 | 104.75 | 59.7% | ||
| Nolasco | 0.329 | 4.38 | 0.298 | 3.18 | 0.284 | 0.765 | 0.294 | 3.69 | 0.253 | 98.48 | 62.3% | ||
| Miller | 0.322 | 3.44 | 0.253 | 2.48 | 0.264 | 0.717 | 0.290 | 3.09 | 0.225 | 98.19 | 66.9% | ||
| Archer | 0.332 | 3.65 | 0.205 | 1.20 | 0.253 | 0.707 | 0.219 | 4.22 | 0.198 | 98.17 | 62.3% | ||
| Delgado | 0.342 | 2.89 | 0.330 | 3.41 | 0.249 | 0.731 | 0.306 | 4.09 | 0.274 | 91.10 | 66.6% | ||
| Ogando | 0.270 | 2.09 | 0.375 | 5.26 | 0.276 | 0.771 | 0.271 | 4.20 | 0.238 | 92.00 | 62.6% | ||
| Hanson | 0.383 | 6.29 | 0.342 | 4.00 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.318 | 4.78 | 0.283 | 89.92 | 62.7% | ||
| Estrada | 0.307 | 3.97 | 0.386 | 6.62 | 0.265 | 0.709 | 0.305 | 4.74 | 0.272 | 95.08 | 64.2% | ||
| Bumgarner | 0.214 | 2.50 | 0.270 | 2.79 | 0.261 | 0.717 | 0.237 | 3.07 | 0.189 | 105.23 | 63.7% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 7th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window