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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 27th

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-09-27 20:44:42

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 27th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Buchholz BOS 101.1 1.60 3.64 1.03 80.0% 23.7% 9.3% 0.18 1.64
Feldman BAL 179.1 3.51 4.06 1.15 44.8% 17.7% 7.4% 0.90 1.61
Hellickson TBR 169.1 5.16 4.16 1.34 30.0% 18.2% 6.7% 1.28 0.95
Dickey TOR 217.1 4.27 4.16 1.25 42.4% 19.0% 7.7% 1.37 0.99
Burnett PIT 183.0 3.39 3.10 1.23 48.3% 26.3% 8.6% 0.49 2.35
Bailey CIN 204.0 3.40 3.32 1.11 51.6% 23.8% 6.1% 0.84 1.34
Alvarez DET 35.0 5.66 4.25 1.49 34.5% 18.1% 8.4% 1.80 1.02
Koehler MIA 137.2 4.45 4.50 1.35 31.8% 15.4% 8.8% 0.92 1.59
Gallardo MIL 174.2 4.23 4.10 1.36 43.3% 18.4% 8.7% 0.93 1.76
Torres NYM 80.1 3.36 3.42 1.13 50.0% 20.7% 4.9% 1.46 1.16
Lee PHI 214.2 2.93 2.98 1.03 56.7% 24.6% 3.8% 0.88 1.35
Medlen ATL 189.0 3.24 3.78 1.25 46.7% 18.9% 5.7% 0.86 1.48
Wilson LAA 206.1 3.36 4.06 1.34 46.9% 20.5% 9.1% 0.65 1.34
Ogando TEX 98.1 2.93 4.58 1.15 29.4% 17.1% 9.1% 1.01 0.91
Shields KCR 221.2 3.21 3.91 1.25 63.6% 20.2% 7.3% 0.77 1.20
Sale CWS 209.0 2.97 2.95 1.05 62.1% 26.3% 5.4% 0.99 1.46
Kluber CLE 142.0 3.61 3.31 1.23 30.4% 22.5% 5.5% 0.89 1.60
Hernandez MIN 55.0 6.05 5.24 1.73 9.1% 11.2% 8.8% 1.64 1.09
TBD NYY 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 Debut 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00
Oberholtzer HOU 66.1 2.71 4.33 1.10 66.7% 15.1% 4.4% 0.95 0.86
Wood CHC 199.0 2.98 4.47 1.12 64.5% 17.6% 7.9% 0.81 0.76
Lynn STL 195.2 4.09 3.83 1.33 50.0% 22.7% 9.1% 0.64 1.29
Strasburg WAS 176.0 3.02 3.13 1.05 51.7% 26.6% 7.7% 0.82 1.64
Corbin ARI 203.1 3.28 3.65 1.16 64.5% 20.4% 6.2% 0.80 1.53
Colon OAK 184.1 2.64 4.24 1.18 62.1% 14.6% 3.8% 0.59 1.12
Hernandez SEA 198.1 2.99 2.86 1.13 63.3% 26.3% 5.6% 0.64 1.85
McHugh COL 22.0 8.59 5.00 1.82 0.0% 7.8% 3.9% 1.64 1.36
Kershaw LAD 230.0 1.88 3.11 0.92 71.9% 25.3% 5.9% 0.43 1.47
Smith SDP 30.2 5.87 3.92 1.60 33.3% 27.0% 12.8% 1.76 0.61
Vogelsong SFG 97.2 5.90 4.62 1.57 16.7% 14.5% 7.7% 1.38 1.33

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

TOP 10:

clayton-kershaw-300x200

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. COL) – He’s the one guy who always costs an arm and a leg, but almost always earns it and then some. The Rockies were the last team to get him with a 5 IP/5 ER outing, but it was in Coors. He’s got three 7 IP gems since then posting a 1.71 ERA in 21 IP with 23 Ks and just five walks allowed. He’s the absolute best in the game.

Cliff Lee, PHI (at ATL) – When you pitch for a crappy team, it almost doesn’t matter how well you throw, it gets a bit overlooked. That happened to a few of our top options today including Lee. He’s leading baseball in K/BB ratio for the second straight year (and third time in four years) with a 6.5 mark while shaving his 2012 ERA from 3.16 to 2.93. He’s closing with a flourish, too, going eight innings in four of his last six – five of them gems – yielding a 2.05 ERA, 52 Ks, and just five walks in 44 IP.

The Braves aren’t about to take it easy with their playoff spot locked because they still need to top St. Louis for the #1 seed, but it won’t be easy with Lee posting a 2.63 ERA against them in four starts with a 15.0 K/BB ratio.

chris-sale-300x200

Chris Sale, CWS (v. KC) – Sale in the category of Lee. He has an 11-13 record and his work has deserved MUCH better. He has destroyed the Royals with an 0.75 ERA in three starts, but it has only netted a 1-1 record. He is going toe-to-toe with Royals ace James Shields and they will almost certainly duel for seven or more innings, but of course that puts a win in jeopardy for either. Speaking of Shields…

James Shields, KC (at CWS) – Shields would’ve been a daily fantasy superstar if it weren’t for his meager 12-9 record. Of course it’s hardly his fault, but it’s still a bummer to watch him throw a gem and either take a no-decision or worse yet, a loss. He’s actually got a 7-2 record in the last two months, though. The losses were his only bad outings (7 and 10 ER), but he still has a 3.45 ERA in the 73 innings over 11 starts. Shields has dominated the Sox with a 2.18 ERA in five starts, but has just a 1-1 record to show for it.

Kris Medlen, ATL (v. PHI) – Medlen’s somewhat quietly had a great second half. He has a 2.63 ERA in 12 outings (11 starts) and he’s been even hotter of late with a 4-0 record and 1.03 ERA in his last five spanning 35 IP with 32 Ks. He’s been up and down against the Phillies this year with the worst of it coming back in July when he went 5.3 IP/6 ER, but his best outing against them was his most recent back in mid-August when he went 7 IP/1 ER.

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Felix Hernandez, SEA (v. OAK) – Hernandez is right there with Lee and Sale as a stud stuck on a dud team. Though it will be his first season in the last five that he falls below 230 innings, Hernandez is headed toward a few improvements as long as he has a nice outing against the A’s. His strikeout rate is up and his ERA and WHIP are down. The A’s are fighting tooth and nail to either overtake Boston for the AL’s top spot or at least maintain a lead over Detroit for home field advantage, but it won’t be easy as Hernandez has shut them out for 14.7 IP in a pair of outings with a 16/2 K/BB ratio.

Clay Buchholz, BOS (at BAL) – Buchholz hasn’t really missed a beat since returning, in fact he didn’t allow a run until his third outing back and it was only a pair in 6 IP against Toronto. He has a 2-1 record with a 1.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 17 IP. He completes his tour of the division with this trip to Baltimore after facing TB, NYY, and TOR.

Homer Bailey, CIN (v. PIT) – This could be similar to Sale/Shields except this game is more important as the two NL Central teams are jockeying for playoff position. Bailey hasn’t been too bad against the Pirates, but his worst effort against them came in his most recent outing when he went 5.7 IP/2 ER (4 runs in all) with three strikeouts and four walks. Of course almost a year ago (9/28/12), Bailey faced the Pirates and threw a no-hitter with 10 Ks. My only problem trusting Bailey in a daily league is his random bouts of inconsistency, but I think he’ll come through in his season finale.

A.J. Burnett, PIT (at CIN) – Despite playing for a 91-68 club, Burnett is just 9-11 despite a 3.39 ERA in 183 IP. He’s been either great or poor in the second half allowing 1 or 2 ER in eight of his 13 starts and then 4 or 5 ER in the other five starts. After opening September with back-to-back 5 ER outings, he’s rebounded with just four earned in his last two including 20 Ks in 13.7 IP. He’s been solid against the Reds with a 3.38 ERA and 28 Ks in 18.7 IP over three starts.

bartolo-colon-300x200

Bartolo Colon, OAK (at SEA) – Like Buchholz, Colon hasn’t missed a beat since returning from the DL. He has a 0.90 ERA and 26/3 K/BB ratio in 30 IP over his five starts. He’s also won his last three pushing his record to 17-6 and putting the finishing touches on a tremendous season. Perhaps most impressive are his 22 strikeouts (7-7-8) in these last three starts.

FIVE MORE:

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at ARI) – He’s also slotted this low because I honestly don’t know that the Nats will give him more than five innings to close out the season. If there was something on the line, they might push him a bit, but there’s no need with their playoff chances washed away.

Rick Porcello, DET (at MIA) – Porcello is closing out brilliantly, but four horrific starts will end up keeping him from his first sub-4.00 ERA season since his rookie year. He has outings of 9, 8, 7, and 6 ER on his ledger which have elevated his ERA, but he’s doing his best to repair it with a 1.66 ERA and 24/3 K/BB ratio in 21.7 IP. He gets a crack at one of baseball’s worst teams to finish his regular season. UPDATE: PORCELLO HAS BEEN SCRATCHED IN FAVOR OF JOSE ALVAREZ TONIGHT

alexi-ogando-300x200

Alexi Ogando, TEX (v. LAA) – Ogando rejoined the rotation in mid-September and he has a pair of gems allowing just one earned in 12 innings with a 9/2 K/BB ratio. He might not get many more than five innings if he’s not efficient as he’s been limited to 69 and 77 pitches in these last two outings.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (v. WAS) – Regardless of how he finishes, it’s been a brilliant season for Corbin. That said, he is sputtering to the finish line with a 6.66 ERA in five September starts including three total duds among the quintet.

C.J. Wilson, LAA (at TEX) – Wilson’s had a great season for the Angels, but his former team has torn him apart getting him for an 8.44 ERA in 10.7 IP over two starts. With so many great options today, it’d be tough to roll with Wilson back in his old stomping grounds, especially in a must-win for Texas.

BOTTOM FIVE:

ADVANCED METRICS: September 27th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Buchholz 0.241 1.77 0.252 1.44 0.267 0.767 0.256 2.59 0.193 101.07 63.8%
Feldman 0.296 3.60 0.303 3.36 0.284 0.819 0.251 3.96 0.223 101.24 61.0%
Hellickson 0.340 5.30 0.333 5.05 0.254 0.744 0.305 4.28 0.270 90.71 64.2%
Dickey 0.343 4.59 0.298 3.99 0.250 0.734 0.270 4.53 0.242 103.33 65.5%
Burnett 0.351 4.63 0.243 2.41 0.254 0.730 0.310 2.77 0.230 100.76 64.9%
Bailey 0.332 3.78 0.251 3.10 0.242 0.700 0.286 3.19 0.231 103.13 66.8%
Alvarez 0.382 3.97 0.379 6.46 0.234 0.663 0.305 5.34 0.279 52.25 61.2%
Koehler 0.320 5.18 0.341 3.91 0.293 0.796 0.289 4.30 0.259 77.32 62.1%
Gallardo 0.331 4.32 0.319 4.18 0.238 0.679 0.295 3.98 0.254 98.27 60.2%
Torres 0.293 3.19 0.310 3.49 0.250 0.702 0.273 4.21 0.244 38.25 66.7%
Lee 0.253 2.63 0.295 3.04 0.242 0.705 0.290 2.88 0.234 104.73 70.8%
Medlen 0.333 3.48 0.305 3.07 0.253 0.701 0.303 3.54 0.259 95.10 66.0%
Wilson 0.227 2.20 0.334 3.73 0.266 0.751 0.301 3.50 0.245 110.25 62.4%
Ogando 0.261 2.33 0.339 3.83 0.270 0.753 0.237 4.37 0.216 76.33 63.1%
Shields 0.282 3.04 0.330 3.51 0.251 0.682 0.300 3.50 0.249 107.85 62.5%
Sale 0.177 2.08 0.309 3.22 0.263 0.697 0.282 3.20 0.223 108.69 66.9%
Kluber 0.331 3.79 0.302 3.49 0.237 0.692 0.322 3.25 0.262 87.92 64.9%
Hernandez 0.269 2.45 0.431 7.55 0.270 0.768 0.330 5.60 0.319 75.23 60.1%
TBD 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.0%
Oberholtzer 0.358 2.55 0.283 2.85 0.249 0.688 0.257 3.77 0.236 85.00 67.2%
Wood 0.269 2.72 0.288 3.09 0.234 0.666 0.244 3.87 0.215 98.48 64.8%
Lynn 0.348 5.35 0.290 3.31 0.241 0.702 0.314 3.37 0.248 101.66 63.7%
Strasburg 0.299 3.79 0.260 2.45 0.258 0.717 0.262 3.21 0.204 94.83 63.3%
Corbin 0.249 2.70 0.311 3.48 0.234 0.669 0.281 3.42 0.236 96.52 66.0%
Colon 0.302 2.90 0.283 2.39 0.246 0.723 0.298 3.17 0.265 92.41 68.8%
Hernandez 0.297 3.39 0.289 2.60 0.250 0.730 0.315 2.58 0.240 102.30 64.0%
McHugh 0.479 9.72 0.380 7.90 0.270 0.730 0.368 5.23 0.364 57.83 68.9%
Kershaw 0.240 1.71 0.246 1.94 0.267 0.717 0.250 2.44 0.192 104.56 66.5%
Smith 0.403 7.24 0.331 4.86 0.264 0.706 0.316 4.88 0.252 59.44 65.2%
Vogelsong 0.333 4.86 0.407 7.02 0.242 0.671 0.323 4.96 0.297 92.06 62.5%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 27th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.