Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 1st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrada | MIL | TOR | 96.0 | 5.06 | 3.99 | 1.26 | 23.1% | 21.1% | 8.0% | 2.25 | 0.67 |
| Hutchison | TOR | MIL | 92.1 | 4.00 | 3.93 | 1.27 | 30.8% | 20.3% | 7.5% | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| Miley | ARI | PIT | 105.1 | 4.78 | 3.60 | 1.33 | 28.6% | 21.4% | 7.6% | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| Locke | PIT | ARI | 33.2 | 3.74 | 3.45 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 0.53 | 1.61 |
| Martinez | TEX | BAL | 62.0 | 4.65 | 5.83 | 1.69 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 1.31 | 0.76 |
| McFarland | BAL | TEX | 26.2 | 2.70 | 3.81 | 1.41 | 13.8% | 6.9% | 0.34 | 1.79 | |
| Friedrich | COL | WAS | 10.0 | 8.10 | 3.81 | 2.00 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 2.70 | ||
| Strasburg | WAS | COL | 104.2 | 3.70 | 2.69 | 1.29 | 64.3% | 27.7% | 5.2% | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| Price | TBR | NYY | 124.0 | 3.63 | 2.47 | 1.09 | 42.9% | 28.4% | 2.8% | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Kuroda | NYY | TBR | 95.2 | 4.23 | 3.91 | 1.25 | 38.5% | 16.7% | 5.0% | 1.03 | 1.47 |
| Mills | OAK | DET | 10.1 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 1.68 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 0.87 | ||
| Porcello | DET | OAK | 97.2 | 3.41 | 4.04 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 15.8% | 6.1% | 0.83 | 1.43 |
| Jackson | CHC | BOS | 89.2 | 5.22 | 3.98 | 1.52 | 15.4% | 21.7% | 10.0% | 0.90 | 1.25 |
| Buchholz | BOS | CHC | 57.1 | 6.75 | 4.71 | 1.86 | 30.0% | 14.9% | 8.7% | 1.57 | 1.13 |
| Matsuzaka | NYM | ATL | 53.0 | 3.23 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 66.7% | 21.6% | 15.4% | 0.34 | 1.11 |
| Minor | ATL | NYM | 66.0 | 4.50 | 3.56 | 1.48 | 62.5% | 22.1% | 6.8% | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Burnett | PHI | MIA | 111.0 | 3.89 | 4.27 | 1.34 | 42.9% | 17.9% | 9.9% | 0.73 | 1.63 |
| Alvarez | MIA | PHI | 101.0 | 2.32 | 3.65 | 1.28 | 38.5% | 15.3% | 4.8% | 0.36 | 2.34 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | HOU | 75.0 | 3.48 | 3.03 | 1.08 | 50.0% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 1.20 | 2.35 |
| Cosart | HOU | SEA | 95.0 | 3.60 | 4.23 | 1.31 | 30.8% | 15.6% | 9.3% | 0.57 | 2.21 |
| Weaver | LAA | CWS | 110.2 | 3.33 | 4.13 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 19.2% | 7.4% | 1.14 | 0.74 |
| Carroll | CWS | LAA | 51.0 | 4.76 | 4.74 | 1.63 | 40.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 0.88 | 1.74 |
| Shields | KCR | MIN | 111.2 | 3.79 | 3.72 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 18.3% | 5.0% | 1.21 | 1.41 |
| Nolasco | MIN | KCR | 95.2 | 5.74 | 4.19 | 1.60 | 15.4% | 16.4% | 6.4% | 1.41 | 1.21 |
| Masterson | CLE | LAD | 93.0 | 5.03 | 3.98 | 1.54 | 42.9% | 20.3% | 12.0% | 0.48 | 2.82 |
| Beckett | LAD | CLE | 93.2 | 2.11 | 3.42 | 1.01 | 50.0% | 23.9% | 7.6% | 1.06 | 1.21 |
| Leake | CIN | SDP | 108.1 | 3.41 | 3.35 | 1.15 | 46.2% | 19.0% | 5.2% | 0.91 | 2.27 |
| Kennedy | SDP | CIN | 103.1 | 4.01 | 3.10 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 25.8% | 6.3% | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| Gonzales | STL | SFG | 5.0 | 9.00 | 4.85 | 1.80 | 12.5% | 8.3% | 1.80 | ||
| Lincecum | SFG | STL | 91.2 | 4.42 | 3.83 | 1.35 | 23.1% | 21.3% | 9.3% | 0.98 | 1.53 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
David Price TB (at NYY) – He’s still in TB for now and he’s riding a fantastic hot streak with 10+ strikeouts in five straight starts totaling 54 in 39.7 IP while posting a 2.27 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, too. He’s gone 8+ IP in four of the five with 7.3 IP in the other one. He’ll cost you a ton, but he’s been completely worth it for all of June and for four of his six May starts.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. COL) – Strasburg confounds me at times. Every pitcher has bad days, that’s not really the issue, but the frequency of them for him has surprised me, particularly with three sub-five inning games during which he’s allowed 19 runs and 16 earned runs. Meanwhile, he’s only gone into the eighth once and has just one scoreless appearance which isn’t the mark of an ace. The strikeouts are still there, at least, with an NL-high 123, but I must say that I’ve expected more. I still value him highly, but on most nights I think I’d prefer a cheaper arm who might have a lower floor over the expensive Strasburg.
Mike Leake CIN (at SD) – This isn’t just because he’s facing SD. Leake has been quite good for the bulk of this year. In fact, his only rough stretch was during his first three starts of June when he failed to finish six in any of them allowing at least 4 ER in each. He’s rebounded with back-to-back 8 IP/1 ER efforts with a career-best 12 strikeouts in his last start (previous high was eight, achieved four times). Homers are still a part of his game that seem to cap his upside around the mid-3.00s from an ERA standpoint, but you have to love him in parks that depress homers like AT&T Park where he fanned 12 and of course Petco Park against this wretched offense.
A.J. Burnett PHI (at MIA) – Burnett is surging results-wise, but the skills have lagged behind a bit. He’s got a 2.59 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his last four starts, but just 18 strikeouts in 31.3 IP. I love the six walks and that’s no doubt driving his success as he had three outings with six walks and 41 in all during his first 13 starts. He did log eight of those 18 strikeouts in his last start against these Marlins so maybe he’s starting to find his Pittsburgh form again. I really like him at the sites that are still pricing him based on his early season struggles, but I’d consider him as a solid SP2 even at somewhere like DraftKings where he is the 10th-most expensive arm.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at HOU) – Back-to-back 5 ER outings will definitely push many away from Iwakuma, especially with his price still trending on the high side, but I’m not particularly concerned. Until I get some evidence to the contrary, it looks like just a couple rough starts. Neither the Royals nor the Red Sox have imposing offenses, but it’s not the Padres and Cubs, either. He still has an 8/2 K:BB ratio in the nine innings over those two starts. Houston offers a great chance to get back on track. Their solid performance of late has come more against lefties than anything else.
Ian Kennedy SD (v. CIN) – Kennedy deserves better than a 4.01 ERA when you dig into his skills. He’s got a career-best strikeout rate and groundball rate with a walk rate just 0.2% higher than his 6.1% from 2011-2012, but some unfortunate sequencing has seemed to bite him. I mean, the .324 BABIP is high, but not egregious and every other metric apart from that ranges from good to great. His ERA indicators are all in the high-2.00s to low-3.00s meaning there should be better days ahead. I’d still keep buying (and for those of you in season-long leagues, I’d definitely be trying to buy at a discount).
Josh Beckett LAD (v. CLE) – Beckett just keeps rolling. Since the no-hitter, he’s got a 1.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 38 IP with a 36/8 K:BB ratio including three scoreless starts in his five June outings. Cleveland is tough on righties, but Beckett’s been tough on everyone lately. Ignore your biases associated with the name, a healthy Beckett is a strong investment.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Rick Porcello DET (v. OAK) – Porcello is still good for a dud every once in a while, but they have become more rare and the highs are higher, too, as evidenced by his shutout effort in Texas last time out. He’s actually riding a 16-inning scoreless streak heading into this outing. Porcello’s control has been weird this year. He walked just nine in his first nine starts before walking six in Oakland. He’s walked nine in five June starts including two starts with three apiece. While his 6.1 percent walk rate is the highest it’s been in five years, it’s really not that far from the 5.7 percent mark he accumulated in the previous four years.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (v. PHI) – I still think Alvarez is a great value given how well he’s been throwing. He’s got a 0.78 ERA in 46.3 IP with four scoreless outings and no more than 2 ER allowed in any of them. He doesn’t miss many bats, but he goes deep more often than not. Keep buying.
Jeff Locke PIT (v. ARI) – Locke has emerged as a different pitcher this year. He was knocked around for 6 ER in his season debut, but still logged five strikeouts and zero walks in his 5.3 IP of work during that start. Since then, he’s allowed just 8 ER in four starts with a 4.5 K:BB ratio in 28.3 IP. He has really cut his walk rate, dropping from 11.8% last year to just 3.1% this year.
Jarred Cosart HOU (v. SEA) – It’s hard to argue with the performance lately. He’s got a 2.70 ERA in his last 12 starts having allowed no more than 3 ER in any of the outings, yet I remain grossed out by his 47/27 K:BB ratio in the 76.7 IP of work. I know the stuff is there for more – and he’s shown as much in flashes with two 8 K outings to open the month – but until he shows it consistently, my trust in him will be capped as he’s a low-strikeout guy who walks too many.
Marco Gonzales STL (at SF) – Things were going swimmingly for Gonzales in his MLB debut with three great innings before a fourth-inning meltdown during which he allowed five runs on five hits and a walk. He bounced back for a solid fifth to cap off the Coors outing. It didn’t score well in any type of fantasy format, obviously, but I can honestly say it wasn’t that bad of an outing, especially given the context and setting. I like this rookie lefty and I expect him to hold his own. There will be ups and downs – as with any pitcher – but I expect more than his share of ups starting with this outing in San Francisco.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Christian Friedrich COL (at WAS)
- Edwin Jackson CHC (at BOS)
- Nick Martinez TEX (at BAL)
- Ricky Nolasco MIN (v. KC)
- Scott Carroll CWS (v. LAA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrada | 0.293 | 3.87 | 0.338 | 4.65 | 0.263 | 0.766 | 1.260 | 5.06 | 0.132 | 88.69 | 63.9% |
| Hutchison | 0.318 | 3.68 | 0.305 | 3.62 | 0.264 | 0.732 | 1.270 | 4.00 | 0.129 | 82.56 | 64.5% |
| Miley | 0.307 | 4.47 | 0.332 | 3.83 | 0.278 | 0.754 | 1.330 | 4.78 | 0.138 | 87.41 | 64.4% |
| Locke | 0.334 | 4.67 | 0.297 | 3.40 | 0.253 | 0.703 | 0.980 | 3.74 | 0.145 | 48.20 | 70.5% |
| Martinez | 0.433 | 6.51 | 0.320 | 2.25 | 0.263 | 0.723 | 1.690 | 4.65 | -0.007 | 58.9% | |
| McFarland | 0.344 | 4.28 | 0.339 | 4.00 | 0.286 | 0.786 | 1.390 | 2.70 | 0.069 | 21.29 | 64.4% |
| Friedrich | 0.284 | 0.754 | 2.000 | 8.10 | 0.140 | ||||||
| Strasburg | 0.282 | 3.22 | 0.277 | 2.92 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.280 | 3.70 | 0.225 | 85.71 | 67.5% |
| Price | 0.263 | 3.42 | 0.307 | 3.65 | 0.265 | 0.705 | 1.090 | 3.63 | 0.256 | 96.71 | 70.0% |
| Kuroda | 0.327 | 4.07 | 0.276 | 3.10 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.240 | 4.23 | 0.117 | 83.44 | 62.4% |
| Mills | 0.274 | 0.762 | 1.650 | 4.35 | 0.085 | ||||||
| Porcello | 0.346 | 4.63 | 0.283 | 3.84 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 1.190 | 3.41 | 0.097 | 85.93 | 65.2% |
| Jackson | 0.368 | 5.92 | 0.327 | 4.43 | 0.244 | 0.686 | 1.520 | 5.22 | 0.117 | 84.81 | 62.7% |
| Buchholz | 0.298 | 3.19 | 0.313 | 3.80 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.850 | 6.75 | 0.062 | 84.18 | 62.7% |
| Matsuzaka | 0.300 | 2.56 | 0.296 | 4.61 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.280 | 3.23 | 0.062 | 32.74 | 59.0% |
| Minor | 0.272 | 2.70 | 0.315 | 3.74 | 0.252 | 0.674 | 1.480 | 4.50 | 0.153 | 83.00 | 63.2% |
| Burnett | 0.354 | 4.97 | 0.256 | 2.55 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 1.340 | 3.89 | 0.080 | 90.94 | 60.0% |
| Alvarez | 0.315 | 3.49 | 0.273 | 2.77 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.280 | 2.32 | 0.105 | 76.06 | 66.1% |
| Iwakuma | 0.271 | 2.27 | 0.279 | 3.11 | 0.229 | 0.681 | 1.080 | 3.48 | 0.162 | 79.27 | 68.1% |
| Cosart | 0.278 | 2.85 | 0.332 | 3.83 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.310 | 3.60 | 0.063 | 85.19 | 61.9% |
| Weaver | 0.299 | 3.59 | 0.295 | 3.21 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1.140 | 3.33 | 0.118 | 86.82 | 61.2% |
| Carroll | 0.402 | 4.88 | 0.360 | 4.58 | 0.257 | 0.731 | 1.630 | 4.76 | 0.026 | 59.92 | 59.2% |
| Shields | 0.295 | 3.14 | 0.326 | 3.47 | 0.246 | 0.705 | 1.290 | 3.79 | 0.132 | 93.71 | 64.0% |
| Nolasco | 0.344 | 4.47 | 0.317 | 4.17 | 0.268 | 0.695 | 1.590 | 5.74 | 0.100 | 87.69 | 62.8% |
| Masterson | 0.335 | 4.21 | 0.259 | 3.64 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.540 | 5.03 | 0.084 | 80.41 | 61.4% |
| Beckett | 0.343 | 4.50 | 0.294 | 2.59 | 0.264 | 0.753 | 1.000 | 2.11 | 0.163 | 84.73 | 62.5% |
| Leake | 0.328 | 3.58 | 0.305 | 3.43 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 1.140 | 3.41 | 0.138 | 84.06 | 64.2% |
| Kennedy | 0.340 | 4.97 | 0.324 | 4.19 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.230 | 4.01 | 0.195 | 91.12 | 65.2% |
| Gonzales | 0.246 | 0.726 | 1.800 | 9.00 | 0.042 | ||||||
| Lincecum | 0.327 | 4.61 | 0.325 | 4.46 | 0.259 | 0.692 | 1.340 | 4.42 | 0.121 | 85.13 | 61.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window