Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 22nd, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: July 22nd, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nova | NYY | 52.0 | 3.63 | 3.11 | 1.29 | 29.0% | 24.6% | 7.3% | 0.52 | 2.09 | |
| Darvish | TEX | 119.1 | 3.02 | 2.73 | 1.05 | 44.0% | 32.5% | 8.5% | 1.13 | 1.23 | |
| Morton | PIT | 31.0 | 3.19 | 3.82 | 1.26 | 17.0% | 16.3% | 7.4% | 0.87 | 2.64 | |
| Haren | WAS | 93.0 | 5.61 | 3.79 | 1.42 | 29.0% | 19.6% | 4.1% | 1.84 | 0.80 | |
| Ryu | LAD | 116.2 | 3.09 | 4.00 | 1.25 | 61.0% | 19.3% | 8.1% | 0.77 | 1.50 | |
| Johnson | TOR | 66.1 | 5.16 | 3.68 | 1.49 | 25.0% | 22.1% | 7.6% | 1.36 | 1.35 | |
| Teheran | ATL | 113.0 | 3.35 | 3.73 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 19.8% | 4.8% | 1.19 | 1.08 | |
| Gee | NYM | 110.1 | 4.32 | 4.05 | 1.44 | 42.0% | 18.4% | 6.6% | 1.14 | 1.20 | |
| Moore | TBR | 107.1 | 3.44 | 4.18 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 23.6% | 12.0% | 0.67 | 0.90 | |
| Workman | BOS | 8.1 | 5.40 | 2.86 | 0.84 | 100.0% | 29.0% | 3.2% | 2.16 | 0.42 | |
| Scherzer | DET | 129.2 | 3.19 | 2.74 | 0.98 | 58.0% | 30.1% | 6.1% | 0.83 | 0.99 | |
| Sale | CWS | 120.0 | 2.85 | 2.88 | 1.01 | 59.0% | 27.4% | 5.6% | 0.83 | 1.42 | |
| Cashner | SDP | 99.1 | 3.81 | 4.00 | 1.27 | 40.0% | 16.2% | 6.8% | 0.72 | 1.82 | |
| Gorzelanny | MIL | 52.2 | 1.88 | 3.44 | 1.06 | 67.0% | 24.0% | 9.6% | 0.85 | 1.43 | |
| Feldman | BAL | 109.2 | 3.86 | 3.85 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 6.0% | 0.90 | 1.58 | |
| Davis | KCR | 94.2 | 5.89 | 4.21 | 1.75 | 28.0% | 19.9% | 9.4% | 1.24 | 1.21 | |
| Milone | OAK | 116.2 | 4.24 | 4.27 | 1.27 | 42.0% | 17.5% | 5.7% | 1.47 | 0.73 | |
| Keuchel | HOU | 89.2 | 4.62 | 3.78 | 1.51 | 42.0% | 17.4% | 7.1% | 1.41 | 2.03 | |
| Koehler | MIA | 69.0 | 4.70 | 4.39 | 1.23 | 20.0% | 14.6% | 8.2% | 0.91 | 1.77 | |
| Pomeranz | COL | 12.1 | 8.76 | 6.31 | 2.68 | 0.0% | 16.4% | 20.9% | 2.19 | 1.83 | |
| Garza | CHC | 71.0 | 3.17 | 3.80 | 1.14 | 64.0% | 21.2% | 6.8% | 1.01 | 1.03 | |
| Skaggs | ARI | 29.0 | 4.03 | 4.02 | 1.31 | 40.0% | 20.2% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 1.16 | |
| Deduno | MIN | 62.1 | 3.61 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 0.58 | 3.02 | |
| Blanton | LAA | 112.1 | 5.53 | 3.85 | 1.55 | 32.0% | 18.2% | 5.1% | 1.84 | 1.32 | |
| Jimenez | CLE | 98.2 | 4.56 | 4.35 | 1.49 | 32.0% | 21.7% | 12.2% | 1.19 | 1.30 | |
| Harang | SEA | 83.2 | 5.38 | 3.98 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 17.7% | 4.1% | 1.51 | 0.91 | |
| Arroyo | CIN | 123.2 | 3.42 | 4.41 | 1.13 | 58.0% | 13.7% | 4.6% | 1.24 | 1.18 | |
| Lincecum | SFG | 116.1 | 4.26 | 3.54 | 1.33 | 32.0% | 25.2% | 9.7% | 0.77 | 1.69 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Ivan Nova, NYY (at TEX) – Nova has quietly been brilliant since coming off of the disabled list with a 2.45 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four outings (three starts and a 5.7 IP relief appearance) over 29.3 IP. He has 28 strikeouts against just six walks and the run includes two outings against Baltimore and another one against Tampa Bay.
Nova had a major issue with home runs last year (1.5 HR/9), but he has curbed that problem severely this year in his 52 total innings of work allowing just 0.5 HR/9 so going into Texas isn’t as scary, especially since they are also struggling mightily with a 2.3 runs per game rate in their last eight games. Opposing Yu Darvish will complicate matters from a win probability standpoint, but otherwise he’s a strong play as his price remains modest.
Yu Darvish, TEX (v. NYY) – The team’s ace returns from the disabled list after a back issue kept him out since July 6th. He’s going to cost you big bucks, but he’s worth it. Baseball’s strikeout leader faces an anemic Yankees offense that ranks a paltry 24th in OPS against righties at 699. They are up to 706 in the last month, but that’s still below the 726 league average.
Max Scherzer, DET (at CWS) – A prime contender for the AL’s Cy Young, Scherzer has been a strikeout machine and didn’t lose a game until the Saturday before the All-Star break against the Rangers. He’s gone six or more innings in all but one start (his season debut when he went five) and he gets a White Sox offense that needed a recent offensive explosion to push their season OPS v. RHP over 700. They are ranked 23rd in the league at 701.
Matt Garza, CHC (at ARI) – Trade rumors haven’t daunted Garza one bit as he’s rolled off a 1.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his last six starts (43.7 IP). He has a 38/10 K/BB ratio in that span as well. The competition has been soft in spots, but it also includes outings against the Cardinals and A’s. The Diamondbacks offense lingers around average against righties as their 711 OPS sits 19th in the game. Stay tuned to the wire to make sure he’s actually a Cub by tonight, but if he is, then he’s a solid option.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Julio Teheran, ATL (at NYM) – Teheran already had a 6.7 IP/1 ER outing in Citi Field this year with five strikeouts earlier this year and he gets to follow up his worst start of the year with another trip to the All-Star site. It is worth noting that the Mets at 10-6 this month with a 5.5 R/G rate thanks to a surging Marlon Byrd and Josh Satin as well as an always-great David Wright, but a lot of the damage has come against terrible starters like Johnny Hellweg (12-5 W on 7/5) and Barry Zito (10-6 W on 7/9). I am still liking Teheran here, but the hotness of the Mets caused me to move him from a Best Buy to a Good one.
Dillon Gee, NYM (v. ATL) – Gee has a 2.67 ERA in his last nine starts despite a pair of 5 ER outings (at PHI and oddly at SF). He also has 52 Ks and a 1.20 WHIP during the run including five outings with at least six strikeouts. The run includes an outing in Atlanta where he went 8.3 IP with just two earned and six strikeouts. The Braves are hit-and-miss offensively. Their 744 OPS against righties ranks ninth, but their 23% K rate is still second in baseball. Solid option here, especially with the offense on fire of late, but not quite a Best Buy.
Dan Haren, WAS – Haren’s having a terrible season on the whole, but he gets a second straight favorable two-start slate. He handled the first one with successful trips to Philly and Miami (1.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 14 K, 4 BB in 11 IP) and now Pittsburgh comes calling. His strikeout and walk rates are actually better than 2012 yielding a 4.8 K/BB, but sometimes he’s in the strike zone too much as evidenced by his 11.1 H/9 and 1.8 HR/9 rates. If he can avoid mistakes against the power parts of Pittsburgh’s lineup, he could get his first string of three straight strong starts.
Matt Moore, TB (at BOS) – Moore has a streak of five quality starts posting a 1.91 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 33 IP, however the competition has been modest at best with only Toronto presenting a real challenge (NYY, HOU, CWS, and MIN otherwise). A trip to Boston presents a major challenge as they are scoring 5.0 R/G this month and rate fourth in OPS against lefties on the season (734). Moore was solid against them back in May throwing a baseline quality start with eight strikeouts in a May 14th win. He’ll be expensive and facing a tough team so even though he is capable of a big outing, the risk is still present.
Chris Sale, CWS (v. DET) – Sale is very similar to Moore in that he’s a stud with amazing K potential, but facing a very tough opponent. The Tigers are second to only the Rays in baseball against lefties on the season (762 OPS) and they got to Sale for 10 hits in his last start on July 11th, though he survived six innings allowing only three runs to grab the win. The price-to-risk ratio is just too high to be a great buy at most sites.
Bronson Arroyo, CIN (at SF) – I’ve been all over the place with Arroyo this year, but he’s on a run right now where he can’t be ignored: 2.90 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 2.8 K/BB in his last 12 starts (77.7 IP). In July alone he has a 2.37 ERA and 0.68 WHIP including a 6 IP/1 ER outing against the Giants on July 1st. He still doesn’t generate many strikeouts and home runs are still present, but the continued limiting of walks has curbed the damage of the homers. Only Miami (21) has fewer homers in their home ballpark than San Francisco (30).
Scott Feldman, BAL (at KC) – Feldman hasn’t been too bad since joining the O’s with two strong starts and one disaster. He handled the White Sox and Blue Jays with the Rangers smashing him in the middle. The Royals are the worse than all of the other teams he’s faced with a 680 OPS against righties that ranks 27th in baseball. This is a nice spot for the righty.
Tim Lincecum, SF (v. CIN) – This is Lincecum’s follow-up to the no-hitter and he gets a club that he faced back on July second and threw OK against: 5.3 IP, 3 ER, and 8 K. He has 32 Ks in 21.3 IP during the month with a 2.53 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. The Reds are right at league average against righties with a 723 OPS. Lincecum’s home-away split has been minimal with a 4.12 ERA at home and 4.40 on the road, but his 3.1 K/BB at home is markedly better than the 2.2 on the road.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU (v. OAK) – Keuchel was on fire heading into July, but has fallen off since with a 6.00 ERA in three starts facing Tampa Bay twice along with the Rangers once. The A’s torched him in Houston back in May, scoring six runs on 10 hits in six innings of work. That said, Oakland has a pathetic .198/.262/.323 line against lefties in the last calendar month yielding an MLB-worst 584 OPS.
USE CAUTION:
Charlie Morton, PIT (at WAS) – Though Morton has just one gem in his six starts, he has pitched quite well overall. One of his starts was cut short due to a rain delay and they Pirates were easing him back into things early on so his innings counts were low. He’s only allowed more than three runs once when the Cubs got to him for four over six innings. The Nats offense has gone cold after a hot streak to end June and start July. They’ve scored just 2.4 R/G over their last 10, though in fairness that included series against the Phillies and Dodgers so they’ve faced several tough starters. He’s a secondary option at best as he doesn’t garner a ton of strikeouts and still has a modest offense supporting him.
Andrew Cashner, SD (at MIL) – He’s sputtered in his last two and a trip to Milwaukee is rarely the best remedy even with a lesser Ryan Braun as they still have Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan LuCroy, and even righty-killer Juan Francisco. Even in his excellent June (2.78 ERA), Cashner only had a 14% K rate. We’re still waiting for the strikeouts to come and I just don’t think this is a great spot.
Tyler Skaggs, ARI (v. CHC) – The Cubs aren’t seen as a particularly strong offense (because honestly they aren’t), but against lefties they are just above league average. They sit 16th in OPS on the season and they are up at 10th in the last calendar month with a 734 OPS. Skaggs has been brilliant or brutal in his five outings allowing 0, 5, 5, 0, and 3 ER in 6, 5.7, 5, 8, and 4.3 IP. Despite facing a 43-53 team, this isn’t a great spot for Skaggs.
Tommy Milone, OAK (at HOU) – Yes, this outing is against the Astros, but Milone is always suspect on the road as evidenced by his 5.05 ERA. Sometimes he looks sharp on the road, but in just his last start he was dominated by the Pirates in PNC Park allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks in just 2.7 IP. Plus he has a trip to Houston already this year and they got to him for five earned in seven innings. Be careful here.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at TOR) – I just don’t buy Ryu’s 2.96 ERA since May considering the component skills that go with it. He has a 14% K rate, 9% BB rate, and 1.30 WHIP in the 79 IP of work all of which suggest the sub-3.00 ERA has been ill-gotten or at the very least rather lucky. The Blue Jays have a 701 OPS against lefties this year, but it jumps to 761 at home. It’s at an MLB-best 912 at home in the last calendar month, though the All-Star break makes that a pretty small sample, but they score 5.0 runs per game at home on the season.
Josh Johnson, TOR (v. LAD) – Johnson has been similar to Haren wherein his skills are actually quite solid as he’s fanning 22% of the batters he’s facing while walking just 8%, but his mistakes within the zone have created all kinds of trouble including a career-worst 1.4 HR/9. The Dodgers offense is surging with 5.1 R/G in July and I can’t see any reason to mess with Johnson here.
Samuel Deduno, MIN (at LAA) – I like the way Deduno is throwing of late, but he’s almost a complete ignore today given the Angels offense. He’s still not missing bats at quite the level that his stuff is capable of, but that will come with time. For this one, I’d watch from the sidelines.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
- Tom Gorzelanny, MIL
- Wade Davis, KC
- Tom Koehler, MIA
- Drew Pomeranz, COL
- Joe Blanton, LAA
- Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE
- Aaron Harang, SEA
ADVANCED METRICS: July 22nd, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Nova | 0.293 | 4.28 | 0.319 | 3.00 | 0.264 | 0.756 | 0.340 | 3.00 | 0.258 | 81.20 | 64.5% | ||
| Darvish | 0.302 | 3.04 | 0.243 | 3.00 | 0.246 | 0.699 | 0.260 | 3.22 | 0.192 | 109.50 | 63.2% | ||
| Morton | 0.353 | 5.40 | 0.321 | 1.59 | 0.249 | 0.706 | 0.277 | 4.45 | 0.244 | 76.67 | 62.4% | ||
| Haren | 0.341 | 5.82 | 0.383 | 5.44 | 0.243 | 0.697 | 0.330 | 4.68 | 0.294 | 92.24 | 64.3% | ||
| Ryu | 0.376 | 4.05 | 0.279 | 2.81 | 0.250 | 0.696 | 0.285 | 3.58 | 0.242 | 103.50 | 64.0% | ||
| Johnson | 0.332 | 3.95 | 0.393 | 7.11 | 0.260 | 0.709 | 0.327 | 4.09 | 0.272 | 95.42 | 61.7% | ||
| Teheran | 0.347 | 4.55 | 0.301 | 2.29 | 0.234 | 0.679 | 0.302 | 3.97 | 0.262 | 96.56 | 67.7% | ||
| Gee | 0.394 | 5.44 | 0.308 | 3.49 | 0.255 | 0.748 | 0.328 | 4.08 | 0.283 | 91.89 | 65.1% | ||
| Moore | 0.281 | 2.65 | 0.299 | 3.80 | 0.255 | 0.723 | 0.266 | 3.67 | 0.209 | 98.47 | 60.0% | ||
| Workman | 0.243 | 4.76 | 0.433 | 6.75 | 0.249 | 0.729 | 0.211 | 4.38 | 0.200 | 75.00 | 62.7% | ||
| Scherzer | 0.277 | 3.22 | 0.240 | 3.24 | 0.255 | 0.702 | 0.273 | 2.68 | 0.203 | 107.21 | 66.0% | ||
| Sale | 0.181 | 2.22 | 0.296 | 3.02 | 0.264 | 0.762 | 0.275 | 2.94 | 0.212 | 109.35 | 66.3% | ||
| Cashner | 0.317 | 4.17 | 0.304 | 3.59 | 0.256 | 0.714 | 0.293 | 3.69 | 0.257 | 77.65 | 63.2% | ||
| Gorzelanny | 0.284 | 2.25 | 0.261 | 1.67 | 0.252 | 0.721 | 0.237 | 3.65 | 0.194 | 22.94 | 62.8% | ||
| Feldman | 0.285 | 3.40 | 0.320 | 4.20 | 0.252 | 0.681 | 0.268 | 3.74 | 0.235 | 100.44 | 61.0% | ||
| Davis | 0.396 | 6.92 | 0.370 | 4.71 | 0.274 | 0.786 | 0.381 | 4.40 | 0.317 | 97.39 | 62.5% | ||
| Milone | 0.330 | 6.38 | 0.336 | 3.74 | 0.253 | 0.712 | 0.280 | 4.43 | 0.257 | 100.84 | 64.5% | ||
| Keuchel | 0.373 | 4.98 | 0.363 | 4.50 | 0.243 | 0.727 | 0.329 | 4.55 | 0.292 | 75.68 | 64.7% | ||
| Koehler | 0.358 | 6.25 | 0.264 | 3.53 | 0.270 | 0.771 | 0.264 | 4.23 | 0.242 | 66.94 | 61.5% | ||
| Pomeranz | 0.269 | 4.50 | 0.558 | 10.80 | 0.228 | 0.645 | 0.421 | 8.09 | 0.365 | 91.67 | 57.5% | ||
| Garza | 0.294 | 3.35 | 0.306 | 3.03 | 0.256 | 0.715 | 0.266 | 3.79 | 0.227 | 99.45 | 62.8% | ||
| Skaggs | 0.305 | 2.57 | 0.326 | 4.57 | 0.234 | 0.704 | 0.282 | 4.16 | 0.246 | 97.60 | 64.5% | ||
| Deduno | 2.97 | 4.40 | 0.277 | 0.778 | 0.283 | 4.05 | 0.258 | 98.60 | 61.6% | ||||
| Blanton | 0.370 | 5.49 | 0.403 | 5.62 | 0.241 | 0.701 | 0.343 | 4.87 | 0.308 | 96.95 | 65.7% | ||
| Jimenez | 0.319 | 4.23 | 0.354 | 5.06 | 0.247 | 0.721 | 0.298 | 4.51 | 0.248 | 95.84 | 61.1% | ||
| Harang | 0.361 | 6.31 | 0.330 | 4.29 | 0.256 | 0.746 | 0.298 | 4.39 | 0.271 | 92.13 | 65.3% | ||
| Arroyo | 0.361 | 4.43 | 0.254 | 2.47 | 0.263 | 0.709 | 0.254 | 4.36 | 0.244 | 90.89 | 66.5% | ||
| Lincecum | 0.303 | 3.86 | 0.323 | 4.69 | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.312 | 3.34 | 0.240 | 102.05 | 61.6% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 22nd, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window