Sign In $

Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 23rd, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-07-23 20:50:27

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 23rd, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Cole PIT 41.2 3.89 4.04 1.30 42.9% 14.5% 5.2% 0.43 1.94
Jordan WAS 21.2 3.32 3.87 1.38 25.0% 10.8% 3.2% 0.42 2.59
Capuano LAD 58.1 4.63 3.82 1.41 36.4% 18.8% 5.9% 1.08 1.39
Redmond TOR 16.2 4.32 4.35 0.96 0.0% 20.9% 9.0% 2.16 0.46
Medlen ATL 113.2 3.64 4.14 1.37 36.8% 17.2% 6.4% 0.95 1.28
Torres NYM 22.2 0.79 2.72 0.88 0.0% 22.7% 2.3% 0.40 1.43
Hernandez TBR 108.1 4.90 3.63 1.31 22.2% 18.2% 5.4% 1.50 2.01
Lester BOS 125.2 4.58 4.07 1.37 30.0% 19.1% 8.4% 1.07 1.45
Hughes NYY 102.1 4.57 4.04 1.29 50.0% 20.5% 6.1% 1.58 0.59
Ogando TEX 55.1 2.93 4.46 1.23 40.0% 18.7% 9.6% 0.98 0.90
Hammel BAL 111.2 5.24 4.51 1.44 31.6% 15.9% 7.6% 1.53 1.09
Chen KCR 39.2 2.04 4.47 1.29 100.0% 16.5% 8.2% 0.68 0.62
Porcello DET 99.1 4.80 3.15 1.26 29.4% 19.4% 4.6% 1.00 2.53
Santiago CWS 87.1 3.30 3.81 1.25 50.0% 24.7% 10.6% 1.03 0.82
Ross SDP 45.0 3.60 4.30 1.44 0.0% 17.6% 10.9% 0.80 1.53
Hand MIL 33.0 3.27 3.93 1.21 0.0% 14.3% 6.0% 0.55 1.87
Parker OAK 114.0 3.95 4.53 1.19 47.4% 16.5% 8.1% 1.26 1.01
Cosart HOU 8.0 0.00 5.30 0.63 100.0% 7.7% 11.5% 0.00 2.60
Pettibone PHI 90.1 3.89 4.39 1.39 31.3% 15.7% 8.0% 0.90 1.58
Miller STL 104.2 2.92 3.23 1.12 44.4% 26.4% 6.8% 0.86 0.87
Fernandez MIA 104.2 2.75 3.70 1.08 50.0% 24.3% 9.4% 0.60 1.25
Chacin COL 113.0 3.50 4.46 1.26 50.0% 14.6% 7.7% 0.24 1.65
Wood CHC 122.2 2.79 4.45 1.04 68.4% 17.6% 7.8% 0.66 0.77
Corbin ARI 130.1 2.35 3.61 1.00 78.9% 21.2% 6.4% 0.62 1.44
Gibson MIN 22.1 6.45 4.93 1.66 25.0% 10.8% 8.8% 0.00 1.95
Hanson LAA 47.2 5.10 4.74 1.55 33.3% 15.4% 7.9% 1.70 0.82
McAllister CLE 65.2 3.43 4.59 1.37 54.5% 15.9% 7.8% 0.96 0.95
Ramirez SEA 4.2 13.50 5.63 2.14 0.0% 16.0% 16.0% 1.93 1.17
Reynolds CIN Debut
Zito SFG 103.1 4.88 4.87 1.65 31.6% 14.5% 8.9% 0.96 1.05

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

jarrod-parker-300x200

Jarrod Parker, OAK (at HOU) – Since May, Parker has a 2.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 2.7 K/BB ratio in 84.7 IP of work so don’t be dissuaded by the 3.95 composite ERA that might not be too enticing. He’s been amazing after struggling through a tough April. This is his first crack at the Astros and I expect him to exploit their league-worst 630 OPS v. righties at home.

Alexi Ogando, TEX (v. NYY) – Ogando returns from the disabled list to hopefully pick up right where he left off. He was on a four-start run of 2.31 ERA that included two outings against Boston and one against Oakland. The other was against the Astros, but that ERA in a four-game set with three tough opponents is mighty impressive. I’ve watched the last two Yankees games closely as they were national game and their offense is painful. It really is Cano and eight guys who don’t scare you at all. Brett Gardner can run up a pitch count and get on base, but he doesn’t do major damage and some of the other guys can leave the yard from time-to-time, but they are seemingly always in the midst of a 3-for-20 with 1 HR.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (v. CHC) – I was lighter on Skaggs last night because the Cubs actually do a solid job against lefties, but Corbin is a different breed and while the Cubs did get to him for four runs in six innings in Wrigley back on June 2nd, he still got five strikeouts and the win. Plus it’s a light slate of reliable arms which enhances Corbin’s position. His teammates do have a tough matchup themselves, though…

Travis Wood, CHC (at ARI) – The D’backs are 25th in OPS against lefties at 684 and though it’s a bit better at home (708), it’s still below average. Wood has still allowed more than three earned just once in his 19 starts this season. He’s also a near shoo-in for six innings or more as he’s accomplished that feat 17 of 19 times and he went 5.7 IP in the other two.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

shelby-miller-300x200

Shelby Miller, STL (v. PHI) – Miller got a nice big break as he sputtered to the All-Star break posting a 6.87 ERA in 18.3 IP over his last four starts. He hasn’t pitched since July 10th. The team knew his next start would be at home – where he has a 1.93 ERA – so they choose the extra rest over the cushier opponent (the Cards hosted SD over the weekend). He is still missing bats and the Phillies are about an average offense so while I think we will still see some more bumps in Miller’s rookie season, this is a nice spot for him.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (at COL) – I never really love anyone in Coors Field, but Fernandez has been a star this year and his ability to miss bats and keep the ball down contribute to a recommendation in the tough ballpark. He’s allowing just 0.6 HR/9 thanks in part to a 43% groundball rate and 24% strikeout rate. He’s going to be expensive and the offensive support is always suspect with the Marlins so I can’t quite give him the “Best Buy” tag, but I’m not running away just because it’s in Colorado.

Rick Porcello, DET (at CWS) – Porcello’s season essentially breaks down to a split of two starts compared to his other 15. Porcello vs. LAA: 28.80 ERA in 5 IP; Porcello vs. everyone else: 3.53 ERA in 94.3 IP. The White Sox have a meager 697 home OPS v. righties despite the hitter-friendly US Cellular Park and Porcello handled them in a pair of outings last year posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 13 IP with an 8/1 K/BB ratio. Even if the Tigers play it cautiously and sit Miguel Cabrera, there is enough offense to support him for a win.

jhoulys-chacin-300x200

Jhoulys Chacin, COL (v. MIA) – Opponent alone elevated Chacin into this bracket as his home record has been suspect this year. He has a 4.48 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 70.3 IP at home compared to a 1.90 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road. We know how the Marlins struggle – though they called up two of their top hitting prospects to hopefully remedy some of that – and Chacin does have a couple useful starts at home so I could see another today.

USE CAUTION:

Hector Santiago, CWS (v. DET) – He’s actually been better in the rotation (3.13 ERA) than as a reliever (3.93 ERA), but he’s struggled a lot at home (4.15) compared to the road (2.73) and even a Cabrera-less Tigers can pack a punch against southpaws. He’s an OK secondary option if money is a concern, but otherwise there will be better spots for him the rest of the season.

Erasmo Ramirez, SEA (v. CLE) – He tanked in his season debut against Boston, but I don’t really hold that against anyone as the Sox are crushing most teams. The Indians have fallen back offensively after a brilliant start in April and May. Over the last month, they are league average against righties and for the season they are league average against them on the road. Ramirez was an underrated asset last year and he should be again this year now that he’s fully healthy.

gerrit-cole-300x200

Gerrit Cole, PIT (at WAS) – He’s lost his last three starts despite a passable 4.15 ERA including a 7 IP/2 ER outing against Oakland that he lost 2-1. Such is life with the Pirates offense supporting you and Cole has to be near-perfect to net a win. He’s finally missing more bats with a 20% strikeout rate during those three starts, but we’re still seeing him grow as a pitcher. The Nats offense has been better since June now that they’re whole, too.

Zach McAllister, CLE (at SEA) – McAllister returns after nearly two months off and he’d done well in 11 starts prior to hitting the disabled list posting a 3.43 ERA in 65.7 IP including a 7.3 IP/2 ER outing against the Mariners back on May 18th. The M’s are a much more potent offense these days, though. They scored 4.0 R/G back in May, but they are up to 6.1 R/G in 17 games so far in July. While the home ballpark of Seattle’s remains a nice environment for pitchers in general, getting through their nine is no longer a cakewalk. Be careful.

Jarred Cosart, HOU (v. OAK) – He’s just such an unknown in his second MLB start. He impressed mightily against Tampa Bay during his debut and the A’s are a worse offense, but the Houston environment is more conducive to offense. Plus, facing Parker puts a win at a very low probability. After the impressive debut, I’m very intrigued here, but I’d rather explore that intrigue from the sidelines.

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:

Chris Capunao, LAD (at TOR) – Toronto blasts lefties, particularly at home as they did to Ryu yesterday who managed a win because he managed to last just over five innings and his offense blitzkrieged Josh Johnson.

Kris Medlen, ATL (at NYM) – Sucky Medlen is back as he has a 5.35 ERA in his last six with a 1.56 WHIP in 35.3 IP. He’s just giving up far too many hits. The Mets couldn’t capitalize against him on June 19th as he held them to just one earned in 7 IP, but he’s allowed 9, 8, and 9 hits in his last three and the Mets are scoring 5.2 R/G in July.

Jon Lester, BOS (v. TB) – Do I really need to explain?

Phil Hughes, NYY (at TEX) – A home run machine in a home run park? No thanks.

Tommy Hanson, LAA (v. MIN) – I’d like to see a start or two off the DL before trusting him.

Jason Hammel, BAL (at KC) – The Royals are hitting better of late and Hammel has done nothing to inspire confidence at any point this year.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

ADVANCED METRICS: July 23rd, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Cole 0.318 3.86 0.292 4.12 0.250 0.705 0.321 3.27 0.280 85.71 64.5%
Jordan 0.328 4.35 0.379 2.38 0.243 0.702 0.342 3.56 0.310 82.75 65.3%
Capuano 0.312 4.32 0.360 4.79 0.248 0.700 0.324 3.74 0.279 71.92 62.4%
Redmond 0.243 3.60 0.353 5.40 0.263 0.715 0.146 5.93 0.169 53.60 60.4%
Medlen 0.349 4.23 0.335 3.06 0.234 0.682 0.309 3.94 0.270 96.89 65.5%
Torres 0.243 1.00 0.225 0.66 0.254 0.744 0.266 2.26 0.212 30.91 67.6%
Hernandez 0.380 6.10 0.292 3.59 0.285 0.819 0.304 4.57 0.273 95.39 64.9%
Lester 0.377 6.04 0.320 4.28 0.289 0.791 0.303 4.16 0.260 106.85 63.2%
Hughes 0.376 5.01 0.290 4.11 0.264 0.752 0.298 4.47 0.264 95.72 66.7%
Ogando 0.254 1.89 0.371 4.57 0.247 0.699 0.256 4.26 0.224 93.40 62.8%
Hammel 0.375 6.25 0.330 3.94 0.251 0.680 0.302 5.07 0.279 98.68 62.8%
Chen 0.361 3.29 0.285 1.42 0.250 0.708 0.276 3.83 0.240 35.45 65.2%
Porcello 0.343 4.85 0.280 4.70 0.256 0.701 0.317 3.51 0.271 91.00 64.2%
Santiago 0.372 2.86 0.291 3.50 0.264 0.762 0.273 4.10 0.218 67.83 62.2%
Ross 0.350 4.29 0.313 3.09 0.255 0.716 0.301 4.16 0.257 35.09 61.9%
Hand 0.340 5.14 0.279 2.00 0.242 0.677 0.294 3.60 0.260 32.67 66.1%
Parker 0.319 4.33 0.308 3.58 0.229 0.651 0.248 4.68 0.231 91.74 62.4%
Cosart 0.194 0.00 0.111 0.00 0.245 0.711 0.095 3.67 0.087 96.00 57.3%
Pettibone 0.366 4.64 0.308 3.28 0.287 0.765 0.305 4.19 0.270 94.19 62.1%
Miller 0.312 3.23 0.263 2.72 0.262 0.719 0.289 3.07 0.224 98.22 67.2%
Fernandez 0.278 3.40 0.248 2.09 0.269 0.770 0.244 3.21 0.192 89.83 65.6%
Chacin 0.316 4.12 0.285 3.00 0.231 0.616 0.289 3.17 0.248 93.17 64.0%
Wood 0.203 1.80 0.275 3.12 0.252 0.686 0.227 3.58 0.199 96.95 63.8%
Corbin 0.207 1.99 0.286 2.49 0.233 0.706 0.246 3.17 0.204 97.74 65.4%
Gibson 0.422 8.18 0.290 4.76 0.275 0.773 0.354 3.68 0.311 91.25 61.1%
Hanson 0.401 5.40 0.344 4.43 0.239 0.695 0.310 5.25 0.289 91.22 61.6%
McAllister 0.353 4.08 0.311 2.73 0.249 0.731 0.295 4.21 0.263 102.64 63.3%
Ramirez 0.527 22.50 0.245 6.75 0.254 0.739 0.333 7.34 0.300 101.00 53.5%
Reynolds 0.262 0.706
Zito 0.447 3.71 0.360 5.23 0.246 0.716 0.350 4.41 0.311 94.74 61.9%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 23rd, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily%20pitcher%20chart%202

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.