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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 29th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-07-30 22:26:35

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 29th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Westbrook STL 88.1 2.95 4.81 1.39 50.0% 8.6% 8.8% 0.31 2.81
Liriano PIT 88.2 2.23 3.44 1.18 64.3% 25.2% 9.6% 0.41 2.11
Danks CWS 76.2 4.81 3.92 1.17 25.0% 16.6% 2.9% 2.00 1.15
McAllister CLE 70.2 3.57 4.59 1.43 50.0% 16.1% 8.1% 0.89 0.95
De La Rosa COL 121.1 2.97 4.28 1.27 57.1% 16.7% 8.5% 0.52 1.76
Beachy ATL Season Debut
Hefner NYM 114.1 4.17 3.97 1.23 55.0% 18.3% 6.0% 1.50 1.21
Turner MIA 65.0 2.49 4.36 1.18 60.0% 17.1% 8.4% 0.42 1.37
Lohse MIL 128.1 3.37 4.11 1.12 45.0% 16.0% 3.7% 1.40 0.98
Samardzija CHC 137.0 3.94 3.60 1.31 41.7% 24.0% 9.0% 0.99 1.54
Weaver LAA 81.2 2.98 3.97 1.14 61.5% 20.1% 6.3% 0.77 0.76
Garza TEX 78.1 2.87 3.73 1.10 66.7% 20.9% 6.3% 0.92 1.03
Rogers TOR 84.1 3.74 4.09 1.35 50.0% 15.8% 6.7% 1.07 1.57
Griffin OAK 133.2 3.84 4.03 1.12 38.1% 19.3% 5.3% 1.55 0.68
Leake CIN 128.2 2.73 4.21 1.19 55.0% 14.7% 5.7% 0.98 1.58
O’Sullivan SDP 13.1 4.73 4.94 1.88 50.0% 14.1% 10.9% 0.00 1.43

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

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Zach McAllister, CLE (v. CWS) – He is just back from the DL with a decent start in Seattle (5 IP/3 ER), but his stuff was sharp and he also had five strikeouts. The White Sox are also terrible whereas the Mariners have been baseball’s best team in OPS v. RHP in July. The Sox have lost six of seven scoring a pathetic 2.4 R/G.

Jeremy Hefner, NYM (at MIA) – I took it on the chin when Hefner allowed 8 ER to the Phillies two starts ago so I steered away from him against ATL in the following outing and he gave up 5 ER in four innings, but now he gets the Marlins at home and I can’t ignore him. Even during their 5-2 mini-surge, they are only scoring 3.1 R/G including four games in Coors Field so it’s still an offense to pick on.

Esmil Rogers, TOR (at OAK) – Rogers has been much better as a starter this year with a 3.49 ERA and 2.9 K/BB in 57 IP compared to a 4.23 ERA and 1.6 K/BB in his 28 IP as a reliever. The A’s are 25th in OPS in July with a 652. The only problem is that he’s facing a solid arm on the other side so it might be a pitcher’s duel in Oakland’s cavernous park.

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A.J. Griffin, OAK (v. TOR) – Griffin is much better at home and Toronto is much worse on the road so this sets up nicely, but as I mentioned with Rogers, it could be a struggle for either team to get runs on the board. Griffin’s big difference in succeeding at home? Home runs. He’s allowed 17 on the road and just six at home. Honestly, he’s lucky to have just a 4.19 road ERA with his 2.0 HR/9.

Mike Leake, CIN (at SD) – Leake was a little fortunate in San Francisco as he gave up 12 hits, but just one run. Alas, he still has a 3.60 ERA for the month and while the component stats have been a little shaky, he has a great matchup in Petco against a meager SD offense that has just a 603 OPS at home this month – second-worst in MLB.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

Jered Weaver, LAA (at TEX) / Matt Garza, TEX (v. LAA) – Two superstuds pitchers as well as anyone in the game right now. Garza’s 1.24 ERA in July is the fourth-best in baseball and Weaver is right behind him at 1.32. The trick is deciding which one to back in the hopes of getting the elusive W.

jorge-de%20la%20rosa-300x200

Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at ATL) – DLR is that rare bird who actually pitches in Coors Field, but it’s not a major disparity. He has a 2.65 ERA at home, but a still-strong 3.25 on the road. The Braves are rolling in off of a sweep of STL and have been fifth in OPS against lefties for the month so it’ll be force v. force here. However, it’s not like they’re imposing their will offensively to win these games. They scored just 3.7 R/G to sweep the Cards. I still like DLR in this matchup.

Brandon Beachy, ATL (v. COL) – Beachy has made nine rehab starts including a stop in the middle due to a setback, but he’s ready to go now. The control has been shaky with a 12% BB rate, but that’s exactly the last thing to come together for someone returning from injury so I’d expect more of the same at the big league level. He gets a nice opener as the Rockies have reverted back to their normal form of raking at home and wilting on the road. They hit on the road in April, but since then they have a 650 OPS that ranks just 26th in MLB. I’d normally be leery of someone returning from major injury – even someone of Beachy’s talent – but this is a nice spot to succeed. I expect him to be a popular pick at the sites where he is super-cheap, though, so if you look for originality with your picks, steer away from Beachy.

Jacob Turner, MIA (v. NYM) – The Mets were rolling offensively until they ran into the Nats. In fact, it looked like they’d keep rolling in their first game when then won 11-0, but then they scored three more runs in the series… which was four games! Meanwhile the Marlins staff is sixth in ERA in July so they will have their work cut out for them to snap this streak of offensively futility. Turner has been a major part of that with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 3.75 month which isn’t bad considering trips to STL, MIL, and COL plus a home bout against ATL. As with any Marlins pitcher, I still worry about getting a win, but otherwise he makes a great secondary starter today.

kyle-lohse-300x200

Kyle Lohse, MIL (at CHC) – Lohse has a 2.49 ERA in his last 11 spanning June and July along with a sparkling 0.95 WHIP. That includes a 7 IP/3 ER outing against these Cubs. The prices have caught up to Lohse’s awesomeness so despite the nice matchup, he can’t be classified as a great buy because he costs an arm and a leg and doesn’t bring the Ks I’d like out of such a high dollar guy, but if you want a solid arm almost certain to go deep and log quality innings, he’s your guy. Plus he does have 5, 5, and 6 Ks in his last three.

USE CAUTION:

Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. STL) – The Cards were silenced by the Braves, losing three straight and scoring just three runs. This is Liriano’s first crack at the Cards and while he’s been nothing short of excellent this year, I’m a little skeptical. The notion of a team being “due” is faulty, especially if they keep running into tough pitching, but holding this team down for very long isn’t something I’d expect to happen. I’d probably just sit this one out.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (v. MIL) – I can’t figure him out of late as his command and control have been inconsistent start-to-start making him a big risk given that his prices remain rather steep across most outlets. Very skeptical today.

john-danks-300x200

John Danks, CWS (at CLE) – Homers have mangled Danks’s ERA pushing it nearly a run higher than his xFIP. His 4.81 ERA doesn’t marry with a 1.17 WHIP, but the 2.0 HR/9 rate is why there it’s so high. His 3.86 xFIP shows you what he could be if he figures the home run issues out. The Indians have the second-best SLG and OPS v. lefties in July at .468 and 841, respectively. As a long-term play, Danks has some upside, but we care foremost about the here and now and it doesn’t look as bright.

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:

Jake Westbrook, STL (at PIT) – I’m still not buying Mr. 0.97 K/BB ratio. That’s unthinkably bad and his 9.2 H/9 and 1.39 WHIP don’t marry with a 2.95 ERA. There is a correction coming, now whether it comes against Pittsburgh or not, I don’t know, but I’m not investing to find out.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.

ADVANCED METRICS: July 29th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Westbrook 0.396 3.53 0.272 2.63 0.242 0.698 0.288 4.02 0.267 87.86 60.7%
Liriano 0.168 2.14 0.304 2.31 0.246 0.706 0.282 2.74 0.212 88.86 61.8%
Danks 0.376 5.82 0.317 4.45 0.265 0.763 0.276 5.04 0.269 87.58 66.7%
McAllister 0.363 4.28 0.316 2.70 0.254 0.697 0.307 4.11 0.270 94.08 63.3%
De La Rosa 0.248 1.23 0.317 3.44 0.242 0.710 0.289 3.52 0.247 88.52 61.2%
Beachy 0.267 0.761
Hefner 0.378 5.13 0.282 3.53 0.234 0.620 0.274 4.53 0.251 82.71 64.0%
Turner 0.268 2.54 0.307 2.60 0.235 0.682 0.271 3.32 0.229 87.00 63.9%
Lohse 0.297 3.62 0.311 3.16 0.248 0.717 0.267 4.24 0.253 86.62 66.9%
Samardzija 0.335 4.16 0.318 3.88 0.254 0.715 0.304 3.67 0.243 99.86 63.0%
Weaver 0.317 3.61 0.270 2.14 0.262 0.741 0.279 3.48 0.235 92.54 61.9%
Garza 0.299 3.10 0.284 2.68 0.274 0.765 0.262 3.58 0.223 91.17 62.8%
Rogers 0.375 3.73 0.310 3.98 0.244 0.709 0.302 4.23 0.271 37.70 62.7%
Griffin 0.298 4.02 0.315 3.67 0.254 0.752 0.252 4.39 0.234 96.43 65.2%
Leake 0.315 2.53 0.299 2.81 0.243 0.678 0.271 4.07 0.249 89.75 64.2%
O’Sullivan 0.426 7.71 0.338 3.12 0.254 0.730 0.383 3.50 0.321 45.67 62.0%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 29th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.