Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 4th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammel | CHC | WAS | 102.2 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 1.02 | 46.2% | 24.0% | 5.2% | 0.79 | 1.09 |
| Roark | WAS | CHC | 99.2 | 2.98 | 3.87 | 1.16 | 61.5% | 18.1% | 5.9% | 0.63 | 1.28 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | BOS | 73 | 4.56 | 4.41 | 1.56 | 40.0% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 1.60 | 0.94 |
| Lester | BOS | BAL | 114 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 1.18 | 46.2% | 24.6% | 6.2% | 0.63 | 1.04 |
| Whitley | NYY | MIN | 46 | 4.70 | 4.17 | 1.39 | 20.0% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 0.59 | 1.07 |
| Gibson | MIN | NYY | 93 | 3.77 | 4.27 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 0.58 | 1.89 |
| Stroman | TOR | OAK | 42.2 | 4.01 | 3.41 | 1.23 | 66.7% | 20.1% | 5.0% | 0.84 | 1.67 |
| Milone | OAK | TOR | 90.1 | 3.79 | 4.56 | 1.24 | 41.7% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 1.20 | 0.91 |
| Hernandez | PHI | PIT | 86.2 | 4.26 | 4.58 | 1.46 | 27.3% | 16.4% | 11.5% | 1.04 | 2.02 |
| Cole | PIT | PHI | 80.2 | 4.02 | 3.65 | 1.37 | 33.3% | 21.0% | 8.1% | 0.89 | 1.79 |
| Cain | SFG | SDP | 78 | 4.38 | 4.12 | 1.23 | 30.0% | 18.6% | 8.4% | 1.27 | 1.15 |
| Stults | SDP | SFG | 87.1 | 5.36 | 4.58 | 1.52 | 23.1% | 12.2% | 5.3% | 1.65 | 1.21 |
| Ventura | KCR | CLE | 88.1 | 3.26 | 3.49 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 20.4% | 6.7% | 0.71 | 1.95 |
| Tomlin | CLE | KCR | 64.1 | 3.78 | 3.29 | 1.11 | 33.3% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 1.40 | 0.92 |
| Cobb | TBR | DET | 64.1 | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 20.7% | 7.4% | 0.98 | 1.71 |
| Smyly | DET | TBR | 75.2 | 3.57 | 3.96 | 1.37 | 44.4% | 20.3% | 8.1% | 1.19 | 0.91 |
| Elias | SEA | CWS | 104.2 | 3.96 | 3.91 | 1.20 | 23.1% | 20.2% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| Sale | CWS | SEA | 78.1 | 2.30 | 2.75 | 0.90 | 50.0% | 27.9% | 5.3% | 0.69 | 1.24 |
| Lohse | MIL | CIN | 114 | 3.08 | 3.94 | 1.08 | 53.8% | 17.0% | 4.7% | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| Simon | CIN | MIL | 102.2 | 2.81 | 4.06 | 1.06 | 58.3% | 15.5% | 5.8% | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| Darvish | TEX | NYM | 104.1 | 2.42 | 2.98 | 1.18 | 66.7% | 29.9% | 8.6% | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| Niese | NYM | TEX | 103 | 2.88 | 3.93 | 1.19 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 0.61 | 1.45 | |
| Eovaldi | MIA | STL | 106.2 | 3.71 | 3.81 | 1.24 | 53.8% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 0.68 | 1.42 |
| Lynn | STL | MIA | 101.1 | 3.38 | 3.85 | 1.33 | 46.2% | 20.9% | 8.5% | 0.53 | 1.32 |
| Collmenter | ARI | ATL | 91.1 | 3.74 | 4.50 | 1.24 | 27.3% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| Santana | ATL | ARI | 95.2 | 4.05 | 3.49 | 1.30 | 45.5% | 21.8% | 7.1% | 0.75 | 1.57 |
| Kershaw | LAD | COL | 79.1 | 2.04 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 50.0% | 34.7% | 3.6% | 0.45 | 2.38 |
| Jurrjens | COL | LAD | |||||||||
| Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 103.2 | 2.78 | 3.02 | 1.10 | 69.2% | 20.2% | 6.3% | 0.43 | 2.98 |
| Wilson | LAA | HOU | 108.1 | 3.90 | 3.72 | 1.26 | 53.8% | 22.4% | 9.8% | 0.91 | 1.83 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Chris Sale CWS (v. SEA) – The two superstuds throwing today have formidable matchups which feels weird to say about someone facing the Mariners, but they’ve been rolling of late, but the damage has come against righties. Lefties are still handling the M’s and it’s probably due in large part to the fact that they have a lefty-heavy lineup. Sale emerged from back-to-back trips to Baltimore and Toronto – two of the toughest yards and offenses in the game – with a 2.77 ERA in 13 IP despite just nine strikeouts against six walks.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at COL) – Kershaw been unreal of late having allowed 7 ER in his last eight outings. He allowed 7 ER in 1.7 IP in the outing before this run. The only reason he is behind Sale is because I’d rather save some money with Sale as opposed to risking it against the Rockies at the insane price of Kershaw.
Yu Darvish TEX (at NYM) – Darvish jumps onto the Friday slate after being scratched due to some poor weather in Baltimore last night. Moving from the O’s to the Mets is a huge upgrade in matchup for Darvish so while you might’ve been burned by buying him last night and getting the scratch, you can make up for it tonight. Darvish bounced back from a pair of duds against the A’s and Angels with a eight scoreless against the Twins during which he fanned 10 and walked just one.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at CIN) – Lohse was popped for 8 ER in Pittsburgh early in June, but he has rebounded five strong outings in a row, allowing just 7 ER in 26 IP, albeit with just 13 Ks. He had a big strikeout month in April with 40 in 40 IP, but he has just 39 in 74 IP since then, bringing him back to the levels we’re used to from him. You’re buying Lohse for innings and quality ratios, any strikeout goodness is a complete bonus.
Jon Niese NYM (v. TEX) – Niese has yet to allow more than 3 ER in an outing this year with all but two of them being quality starts, too. He’s similar to Lohse with great ratios (2.88 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), but just a 6.5 K/9. The strikeout deficiency seems to keep his price low, though, so if you pair with him a big strikeout arm, there’s plenty of value to be mined here. The Rangers have been brutal against lefties over the last month after really owning them in the first two months of the season.
Lance Lynn STL (v. MIA) – Lynn’s June perfectly encapsulates him. He bookended his six start month with two wretched outings during which he combined for just 5.3 IP with 10 ER, but in between he threw 27 IP of 1.33 ERA (4 ER total) with 26 Ks. When he’s on, he’s fantastic; when he’s off, he’ll ruin your lineup. The upside is too high to ignore, though, especially against the flailing Marlins offense that has just collapsed against righties lately with a .277 wOBA against them in the last month, better than only the Padres’ .242 mark.
Alfredo Simon CIN (v. MIL) – Simon is also in the Lohse, Niese vein. He has been great this year, going deep into game with strong ratios and a modest strikeout rate. Simon just wrapped up a six start June during which he had a 2.66 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 4.3 K:BB ratio in 40.7 IP. Simon has been too good to leave off the list today, but I’m using him as a last resort only as the Brewers offense has been on fire of late, popping righties for a .335 wOBA over the last two weeks – fifth in baseball.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Drew Smyly DET (v. TB) – Smyly was on a roll before heading into Houston and oddly enough, his roll was stopped. The Astros are definitely tougher these days than they were last year or at the outset of the season, especially against lefties. They dumped him for 4 ER in 2.3 IP thanks to eight hits and two walks. Prior to that, he had allowed just 4 ER in 25 IP (1.44 ERA). He’s had some ups and downs in his first full season as a starter, but more good than bad. The Rays have been susceptible to lefties at times this year, far lesser ones than Smyly, too (Vidal Nuno anyone?) so I like him as a nice money-saver today.
Nathan Eovaldi MIA (at STL) – Eovaldi’s inconsistency from last year has returned with three gems and three duds in June. His upside is still substantial as he can regularly go deep with big strikeout totals in a given outing. I think a lot of folks are still worried about their pitcher facing the Cardinals, but that offense has been brutal this year. Their .299 wOBA against righties is 21st in the league this year and they’ve been even worse lately with a .278 since June 1st.
Roenis Elias SEA (at CWS) – Meanwhile, the White Sox don’t care how good or bad a lefty is, they just don’t hit them. Their .264 wOBA against them in the last month-plus has them down to .290 for the season (29th in MLB) meaning we could have ourselves a nice pitcher’s duel in Chicago today as Elias’ teammates have to figure out Sale on the other end. Elias has rebounded well every time he gets popped so I think he can be trusted on the heels of a 6 IP/5 ER dud against Cleveland.
Yordano Ventura KC (at CLE) – Cleveland beating a lefty as they did with Elias is a rarity, but they’ve had little routinely smashing righties with their lefty-centric lineup. Ventura handled them well in mid-June (7 IP/1 ER, though only 3 Ks) and he enjoyed a strong June (2.90 ERA) despite an uncharacteristically low 17 strikeouts in 31 IP of work. He’s not my top choice for a value play today, especially with the lowered strikeout totals of late, but I’m not entirely against him using him, either.
Josh Collmenter ARI (at ATL) – I’m not a huge Collmenter fan, but he has been solid as a starter (3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 82.3 IP) and the Braves have been a nightmare offensively this year. Their .287 wOBA is fourth-worst in the league against righties and their 22% strikeout rate is sixth-highest. Collmenter is the cheapest arm on the board and might be worth a spin, especially if you’re dead set on getting Sale, Kershaw, or Darvish.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Jorge de la Rosa COL (v. LAD)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammel | 0.357 | 5.21 | 0.290 | 3.29 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 1.010 | 2.98 | 0.188 | 87.38 | 64.2% |
| Roark | 0.278 | 3.15 | 0.243 | 1.69 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.150 | 2.98 | 0.122 | 83.75 | 64.3% |
| Gonzalez | 0.313 | 3.49 | 0.337 | 4.40 | 0.244 | 0.686 | 1.560 | 4.56 | 0.086 | 77.21 | 62.8% |
| Lester | 0.298 | 3.41 | 0.315 | 3.66 | 0.264 | 0.724 | 1.180 | 2.92 | 0.184 | 95.88 | 64.4% |
| Whitley | 0.314 | 3.15 | 0.222 | 2.00 | 0.246 | 0.705 | 1.390 | 4.70 | 0.101 | 54.22 | 65.8% |
| Gibson | 0.339 | 4.25 | 0.290 | 4.84 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.190 | 3.77 | 0.06 | 75.31 | 60.1% |
| Stroman | 0.417 | 7.36 | 0.306 | 2.70 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 1.220 | 4.01 | 0.151 | 46.36 | 64.5% |
| Milone | 0.345 | 5.01 | 0.313 | 3.71 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 1.240 | 3.79 | 0.079 | 80.27 | 63.5% |
| Hernandez | 0.382 | 5.84 | 0.327 | 3.83 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.450 | 4.26 | 0.049 | 66.11 | 60.3% |
| Cole | 0.304 | 3.57 | 0.303 | 3.33 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.360 | 4.02 | 0.13 | 92.69 | 64.2% |
| Cain | 0.288 | 4.03 | 0.324 | 4.29 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 1.230 | 4.38 | 0.103 | 79.08 | 62.7% |
| Stults | 0.281 | 4.05 | 0.354 | 4.49 | 0.246 | 0.726 | 1.510 | 5.36 | 0.069 | 72.00 | 65.1% |
| Ventura | 0.303 | 3.48 | 0.297 | 3.10 | 0.264 | 0.753 | 1.270 | 3.26 | 0.137 | 83.47 | 64.8% |
| Tomlin | 0.333 | 4.55 | 0.298 | 2.81 | 0.268 | 0.695 | 1.100 | 3.78 | 0.185 | 77.27 | 67.4% |
| Cobb | 0.287 | 3.39 | 0.289 | 2.39 | 0.276 | 0.765 | 1.240 | 4.20 | 0.133 | 66.45 | 65.4% |
| Smyly | 0.205 | 1.93 | 0.342 | 3.57 | 0.239 | 0.673 | 1.360 | 3.57 | 0.122 | 68.75 | 63.9% |
| Elias | 0.302 | 3.86 | 0.310 | 3.93 | 0.240 | 0.668 | 1.190 | 3.96 | 0.119 | 84.53 | 62.6% |
| Sale | 0.167 | 2.09 | 0.290 | 3.08 | 0.244 | 0.631 | 0.890 | 2.30 | 0.226 | 75.67 | 65.9% |
| Lohse | 0.307 | 3.68 | 0.286 | 2.93 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.080 | 3.08 | 0.123 | 88.06 | 66.7% |
| Simon | 0.320 | 3.54 | 0.264 | 2.53 | 0.264 | 0.732 | 1.050 | 2.81 | 0.097 | 74.44 | 65.5% |
| Darvish | 0.299 | 3.03 | 0.243 | 2.28 | 0.224 | 0.646 | 1.180 | 2.42 | 0.213 | 92.53 | 62.8% |
| Niese | 0.286 | 3.36 | 0.323 | 3.31 | 0.286 | 0.786 | 1.190 | 2.88 | 0.108 | 84.38 | 64.0% |
| Eovaldi | 0.339 | 4.05 | 0.285 | 3.15 | 0.259 | 0.692 | 1.240 | 3.71 | 0.132 | 83.00 | 67.0% |
| Lynn | 0.333 | 4.52 | 0.289 | 3.18 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 1.320 | 3.38 | 0.124 | 86.24 | 62.4% |
| Collmenter | 0.328 | 4.24 | 0.290 | 3.14 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.240 | 3.74 | 0.08 | 63.47 | 65.1% |
| Santana | 0.327 | 3.52 | 0.282 | 3.56 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.300 | 4.05 | 0.147 | 83.07 | 63.0% |
| Kershaw | 0.196 | 1.24 | 0.249 | 2.18 | 0.295 | 0.829 | 0.920 | 2.04 | 0.312 | 67.83 | 69.5% |
| Jurrjens | 0.438 | 2.08 | 0.362 | 9.00 | 0.270 | 0.760 | |||||
| Keuchel | 0.302 | 3.88 | 0.335 | 4.33 | 0.264 | 0.763 | 1.100 | 2.78 | 0.139 | 95.13 | 64.0% |
| Wilson | 0.234 | 2.61 | 0.324 | 3.72 | 0.268 | 0.739 | 1.26 | 3.90 | 0.125 | 91.76 | 59.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window