Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 5th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-07-05 19:04:43

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 5th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. SD) – Gonzalez closed out a fantastic June logging six starts of six or more innings with a 1.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 40.3 IP. He had 44 strikeouts and just 14 walks, too. It’s unfortunate that he was only 2-0 thanks to an anemic Nationals offense. Gonzalez closed April with a 5.34 ERA, but he’s down to 3.09 thanks to a 2.10 mark since May 1st spanning 11 starts and 73 IP. The Padres aren’t a bad hitting offense, particularly against lefties, but Gonzalez is back on his 2012 level where opponent and/or venue scarcely matter.

Cliff Lee, PHI (v. ATL) – Like Gonzalez, Lee was brilliant in June with six big starts. He went seven or more in each of his with a 3.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 44.7 IP. He had 52 total strikeouts including 9+ in four of the outings and he gets a chance to log another as the Braves strike out at the third-highest rate against lefties (22.7%). Lee opened the season with eight shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Braves adding eight strikeouts and zero walks. And that’s in April when they were actually hitting the ball.

Matt Cain, SF (v. LAD) – The composite numbers don’t show it, but I think we’ve got our regularly scheduled Matt Cain back in place. The Cards ripped him for seven earned in six to start June, but then he ripped off five starts of 1.82 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over 34.7 IP. If you go back to the start of May, he has a 3.27 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his last 11 with the Cardinals outing and a trip to Coors being the only outings where he has given up more than three runs. His biggest issue was command in the zone back in April when he allowed nine home runs over four starts and he’s given up just seven in the 11 from May through June. The Dodgers are hitting much better of late 779 OPS against righties since June 1st (sixth in MLB), but Cain is back on the level where opponent is of little concern.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at SF) – The Dodgers new lefty has continued to impress and he’s done so rather quietly. He made a splash in April with some gaudy strikeout totals, but then was almost overlooked in May despite a 2.38 ERA because his strikeout rate dropped significantly. He was almost as good in June with a 2.70 ERA, but again the strikeout rate wasn’t terribly impressive (13%) and Puig-mania and Hanley Ramirez are stealing the Dodger headlines so Ryu lies in wait. It’s unfortunate that Ryu was saddled with a pathetic 0-1 record in his five June starts especially since the Dodgers were hitting better, but they scored just 19 runs in his five outings.

Mike Leake, CIN (v. SEA) – Leake allowed nine runs in his first 12 innings of the season yielding a 6.75 ERA over two starts. Since then he has a 1.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 91.7 IP. In fact since his third start on April 17th, only “Jeff Locke(player-profile)”:/players/Jeff_Locke-13167’s 1.88 ERA has been better. What Leake lacks in strikeouts, he makes up in his ratios. He’s just been excellent for the Reds this year. Coming on the heels of trips to Arizona and Texas which saw him yield just three runs in 15 innings, the Mariners don’t seem to stand a chance during their visit. They have a 695 OPS against righties which ranks 24th in MLB.

BEST OF THE REST:

Justin Masterson, CLE (v. DET) – Masterson has had an odd season. He has either been dominant or gotten shelled. His five games of allowing zero runs (including an MLB-best three shutouts) place him in a tie for third behind only Jeff Locke (7) and Shelby Miller (6). On the other end, he has five outings where he has allowed five-plus earned runs tying him for second behind four guys who have six such outings. This kind of behavior makes him a particularly annoying daily fantasy play because if you get one of the latter outings, your day is all-but-ruined, especially on tournament Friday and his cost is relatively high which mitigates the upside from gem outings. I can’t see using him against the Tigers on day filled with good options.

Jeremy Hellickson, TB (v. CWS) – After a big start in Boston, I said I wanted to see more from Hellickson before I’d start to trust him and now we have three straight excellent outings against quality opponents: Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Tigers. In fact, he struggled with what should’ve been his easiest opponent in June as the Royals ripped him for eight runs in just 5.7 IP. He dispatched with the Indians and Orioles in his first two starts of the month before the KC outing and then got back on track with the current three-game run. His command and control have improved significantly which is obvious not only when you watch him, but even if you just look at the numbers. He allowed seven homers in May including at least one per outing and then bounced back with just two allowed in June.

Andrew Cashner, SD (at WAS) – Cashner had the best month of his career in June posting a 2.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 35.7 IP over five starts. We still haven’t seen the strikeouts that his stuff should be netting, but the 20/6 K/BB ratio is definitely workable. The Nats offense seems to get healthier by the day with Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos returning most recently so they are far from a walkover, but Cashner may still be worth the risk thanks to a modest price.

Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (at NYY) – Gonzalez had five quality starts in June, though he gave up three in each of the last three so his gem percentage is a little low covering up just how good he has been lately. In fact, he has a 3.36 ERA in his last nine dating back to the beginning May. He has handled the Yankees twice this year giving up two earned in both outings logging 13 total innings. After a slow April (4.60 ERA), Gonzalez has worked his way back to his 2012 levels and he’s actually shown some improvement in most of the key metrics.

Jorge De La Rosa, COL (at ARI) – DLR’s results have been great, but the supporting skills still leave something to be desired – particularly his strikeout rate. He topped 22% in his last three full seasons, but he’s at just 16% this year and while his walk rate has dipped in concert, it’s still a touch high at 8.4%. The D’Backs are below average against lefties and they’ve actually been obliterated by DLR three times this year as he has a 1.56 ERA against them in 17.3 IP.

Tommy Milone, OAK (at KC) – Milone is the classic home-only guy as he plays to his home venue so perfectly creating nearly a two run gap in ERA with a 3.20 ERA at home compared to a 5.07 on the road, but Kauffman Stadium is a pretty good venue for pitchers. In fact the Royals have just a 644 OPS against lefties at home which rates 26th in baseball. The Royals have a league-low 13 home runs against lefties (tied with the White Sox) which helps mitigate Milone’s biggest issue. He has allowed 12 HRs in his last eight outings including at least one per outing.

USE CAUTION:

Tim Hudson, ATL (at PHI) – Huddy was one outing away from a MASSIVE June, but he’ll have to settle for a really good one instead. He gave up four in 5.7 IP against the Diamondbacks in his final outing of the month, but still ended up with a 2.45 ERA during the month which tells you how good his other five outings were. He needed a big month to counteract his horrid May (7.33 ERA in 27 IP), but all in all he’s been his usual solid-if-unspectacular self. He’s still got the talent to string together some good outings, but the 37-year old’s talent has a much lower peak and he can get ousted even in the easier matchups (to wit: 6 ER at PIT back in April). The Phillies have actually been on fire against righties of late with a 791 OPS (third in MLB) since June 1st.

Rick Porcello, DET (at CLE) – Porcello bounced back from a pair of terrible outings with a baseline quality start against the Rays and now he gets a Cleveland team that he’s handled with ease twice in the last two months posting a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 12 IP. They remain a tough matchup for anyone, but I don’t hate Porcello here at a next-to-nothing cost at just about every outlet.

Jacob Turner, MIA (at STL) – Turner’s excellent start to the season will be put to the test with a trip to St. Louis. He’s run off eight starts of a 1.76 ERA to start his 2013 season, though the competition has been modest at best. The Cardinals present the biggest challenge yet and we’ll see how Turner and his modest 17% K rate and 2.3 K/BB survive. I’m very intrigued by this matchup as a litmus test for Turner, but not as something to use for my lineups.

C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. BOS) – Wilson has really fallen into a WYSIWYG pattern. He can miss plenty of bats, but the walks will always be there and he’s much better against weaker teams (five 9+ K outings all vs. SEA & HOU) making him a matchup guy. This isn’t one of those matchups. The Red Sox are 10th in OPS against lefties on the season and they’re third since June 1st.

Felix Doubront, BOS (at LAA) – Doubront is a like a Wilson-lite. This doesn’t set up as a good match for either.

Jake Westbrook, STL (v. MIA) – Westbrook’s 2.95 ERA is about the flukiest mark in baseball as his 10% K rate and 1.0 K/BB both scream future trouble. In fact, the Astros and A’s started that regression process in earnest tattooing Westbrook for 10 runs in 10 innings over his last two outings. The allure of the Marlins will attract some to Westbrook, but I honestly don’t trust him against anyone.

Nick Tepesch, TEX (v. HOU) – This purely a matchup listing as Tepesch had a really strong outing against the Astros back in mid-May logging six innings of one-run ball with four hits allowed and eight strikeouts. He posted a horrid 5.97 ERA in six June starts, but the strikeout-happy Astros are often a nice elixir for a struggling pitcher.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Mark Buehrle – The Twins actually have the seventh-best OPS against lefties and Buehrle doesn’t strike out enough to off-set a modest outing from an earned run standpoint.

• Kevin Correia
• Tyler Skaggs
• Aaron Harang
• Dylan Axelrod
• Ivan Nova
• Lucas Harrell
• Wade Davis
• Zack Wheeler
• Johnny Hellweg

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ADVANCED PITCHER STATISTICS: July 5th, 2013

• wOBA (L/R) – Weighted On Base Averages against left/right handed hitters
• Pit/G – Averages Pitches Per Game
• FB% – Fastball Percentage

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 5th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.