Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 8th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanaka | NYY | CLE | 115.2 | 2.10 | 2.52 | 0.95 | 76.9% | 28.2% | 4.0% | 1.01 | 1.66 |
| Bauer | CLE | NYY | 53.1 | 4.39 | 3.83 | 1.47 | 50.0% | 22.5% | 8.7% | 1.52 | 0.96 |
| Norris | BAL | WAS | 87 | 3.62 | 4.33 | 1.16 | 25.0% | 16.9% | 7.9% | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| Fister | WAS | BAL | 63.2 | 2.83 | 3.94 | 1.06 | 71.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 1.13 | 1.34 |
| Ryu | LAD | DET | 89.1 | 3.12 | 3.60 | 1.21 | 58.3% | 19.6% | 5.1% | 0.60 | 1.28 |
| Verlander | DET | LAD | 110.2 | 4.80 | 4.38 | 1.50 | 35.7% | 17.4% | 8.8% | 0.73 | 1.02 |
| Vargas | KCR | TBR | 112.1 | 3.53 | 4.18 | 1.25 | 71.4% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| Hellickson | TBR | KCR | |||||||||
| Danks | CWS | BOS | 99.1 | 4.26 | 4.77 | 1.36 | 46.2% | 15.1% | 9.1% | 1.09 | 0.87 |
| Workman | BOS | CWS | 41.1 | 3.27 | 3.99 | 1.07 | 25.0% | 19.8% | 8.4% | 0.87 | 1.15 |
| Teheran | ATL | NYM | 119 | 2.34 | 3.44 | 0.95 | 78.6% | 22.2% | 5.0% | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| Degrom | NYM | ATL | 54.2 | 3.62 | 4.29 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 19.5% | 10.4% | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Wada | CHC | CIN | |||||||||
| Holmberg | CIN | CHC | |||||||||
| Peacock | HOU | TEX | 72.2 | 4.21 | 4.54 | 1.52 | 33.3% | 19.9% | 12.6% | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| Martinez | TEX | HOU | 62 | 4.65 | 5.83 | 1.69 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 1.31 | 0.76 |
| Kendrick | PHI | MIL | 102.1 | 4.22 | 4.40 | 1.35 | 25.0% | 14.6% | 6.7% | 0.97 | 1.30 |
| Peralta | MIL | PHI | 101.1 | 3.20 | 3.60 | 1.26 | 61.5% | 18.0% | 5.9% | 1.07 | 1.85 |
| Worley | PIT | STL | 20.2 | 1.74 | 4.14 | 0.99 | 15.0% | 3.8% | 0.87 | 0.60 | |
| Martinez | STL | PIT | 48 | 4.13 | 3.77 | 1.33 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 0.38 | 2.11 | |
| Ross | SDP | COL | 107.2 | 3.18 | 3.36 | 1.28 | 57.1% | 22.6% | 9.3% | 0.75 | 2.60 |
| Morales | COL | SDP | 76.2 | 5.75 | 4.54 | 1.57 | 18.2% | 15.1% | 9.0% | 2.00 | 1.28 |
| Hand | MIA | ARI | 24 | 6.38 | 4.86 | 1.79 | 17.7% | 14.2% | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
| Nuno | ARI | MIA | 73 | 5.42 | 4.28 | 1.40 | 20.0% | 17.5% | 7.6% | 1.85 | 0.97 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | OAK | 108.2 | 2.90 | 2.98 | 1.17 | 57.1% | 25.5% | 5.8% | 0.66 | 1.34 |
| Gray | OAK | SFG | 104 | 3.20 | 3.62 | 1.22 | 53.8% | 20.6% | 8.5% | 0.52 | 2.16 |
| Dickey | TOR | LAA | 104 | 4.24 | 4.20 | 1.38 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 9.4% | 1.38 | 1.17 |
| Skaggs | LAA | TOR | 76.2 | 4.34 | 3.85 | 1.25 | 41.7% | 18.2% | 7.5% | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| Hughes | MIN | SEA | 103 | 3.58 | 3.32 | 1.17 | 53.8% | 21.0% | 2.4% | 0.61 | 0.79 |
| Young | SEA | MIN | 91.1 | 3.15 | 5.68 | 1.16 | 41.7% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 1.18 | 0.43 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at CLE) – I continue to marvel at how good he can be when he clearly doesn’t have his best stuff. It was evident in Minnesota his last time out, but he still managed a passable 7 IP/4 ER outing. That was actually his first outing over 3 ER and while a 7 IP/4 ER outing isn’t what you paid for, it certainly doesn’t ruin your night. While Cleveland does do their best work against righties, this is no ordinary righty.
Julio Teheran ATL (at NYM) – Teheran is just rolling right now. Since getting popped in San Francisco on May 14th, Teheran has a 2.37 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 64.7 IP with the fifth-highest innings-per-start rate at 7.2 IP. Additionally, he has 62 Ks in that span after 46 Ks in his first 61.3 IP. He has really evolved into the reliable stud that many believed he would become when he was a blue-chip prospect.
Sonny Gray OAK (v. SF) – We’ve seen Gray sputter a bit of late with nearly four walks per nine since June 1st pushing him to a 4.62 ERA in 37 IP. He does have 35 Ks in that time, but also a gaudy 1.38 WHIP. I still like the stuff, though, and this is a juicy matchup as the Giants have been have been the NL’s second-worst, and third-worst overall, in wOBA against righties since June 1st at .276. Despite the uneven numbers in the last month-plus, Gray is still missing bats and he’s gone at least six innings in four of the six starts.
Phil Hughes MIN (at SEA) – He’s been hammered in each of his last three outings yielding an 8.05 ERA in 19 IP, but the 16/3 K:BB ratio and just two homers allowed says it’s not the same old Hughes getting hit. He’s been too hittable with 27 allowed in the 19 innings, but some of that .410 BABIP is no doubt a little misfortune by way of bloops and bleeders. Hughes has strong secondary indicators including a 3.31 SIERA and 2.79 FIP so the skills are there and I remain confident that his ERA will continue to move closer to those.
Doug Fister WAS (v. BAL) – Fister continues to excel. The strikeouts are still light overall, but he does a great job compensating for that with long outings. He has just six walks on the season and while his season didn’t start until May 9th, that is quite impressive. Baltimore is always tough opposition, but they win by the homer – a strength of Fister’s. He allowed 3 HR in his season debut, but he’s allowed six in his other 10 starts since then.
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (at DET) – What can I really say that I haven’t said several times before in this space? Ryu is rock-solid. He’s proving last year wasn’t a fluke at all and apart from a couple of blow-ups, he’s been an ace-level pitcher. The Tigers are tough, but he’s matchup-proof. He’s only gone fewer than 6 IP in two of his 14 starts.
Justin Verlander DET (v. LAD) – Verlander is on a mini-run here with three straight big outings including work against Cleveland and Oakland – the third and fourth ranked teams by wOBA in the AL against righties (behind Toronto and Detroit). After allowing 7 ER in back-to-back starts, he’s allowed that many in these three starts combined. The Dodgers are another tough matchup, but when Verlander is on, the matchup doesn’t matter.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at OAK) – Is MadBum on the start of another bumpy road? He had a rough April allowing 45 hits in 33.7 IP before a 10-start stretch of 2.09 ERA thanks to just 47 hits in 69 IP. In his last two starts, he’s allowed 15 hits and nine earned runs in 11 innings. This is a really tough matchup so I’d be cautious here. I’d only use him in situations where I was forced by budget, but that should be rare considering how expensive he will be so you likely won’t have to switch down to him to afford some hitters.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Vance Worley PIT (at STL) – Worley has been surprising with the Pirates, posting a 2.28 ERA in his four starts. Perhaps most impressive is the fact that he’s gotten into the seventh in each of the four outings, finishing seven in three of them. The skills aren’t there to sustain anything that good, but he can be a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA pitcher. The Cards are dreadful, so this is actually a prime matchup these days.
Tyler Skaggs LAA (v. TOR) – Skaggs has been a bit up and down, including a DL stint. He returned with a big effort in US Cellular against the Sox and his depressed price makes him an intriguing value play. Skaggs has high-strikeout potential and the ability to go deep into a game, those are my favorite features in someone I’m looking to gamble on while pairing with a sturdier, ace-level arm.
Carlos Martinez STL (v. PIT) – Martinez has a 2.45 ERA in 18 IP as a starter with 18 Ks. He hasn’t really been turned loose yet with no more than 5 IP in any of the four starts, but as a value play, even these shorter outings have use.
Jacob deGrom NYM (v. ATL) – deGrom has had some ups and downs in his 10 starts, but it’s been mostly good with only two of them seeing him allow more than 3 ER. He misses a good number of bats, keeps the ball down, and doesn’t allow homers. That combination is going to make for a lot of quality starts. He doesn’t really have the stuff for HUGE efforts (8-9 IP of 1-2 ER ball) even at his best, but he can drop 6-7 strong innings more often than not.
Jason Vargas KC (at TB) – I think everyone knew the Vargas who rolled out a 1.24 ERA in his first four starts was a mirage, but he’s been pretty solid since then with a 3.99 ERA in 90.3 IP. He’s gone 7+ IP in five of his last six with a 4 IP/6 ER in the other, good for a 3.19 ERA. He can definitely implode on you, but apart from his four ugly outings where he’s allowed 5+ ER, he’s been fantastic. The Rays are hitting better of late, but they can still be tamped down by good pitching as James Shields proved on Monday.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at WAS) – Editor’s Note: This article was written the night before, and Chen has since been pushed back from his start – Chen isn’t quite like Skaggs in the value play pool. Chen has never shown huge strikeout upside and he hasn’t gone more than 7 IP this year, but he has a high floor. He rarely gets absolutely destroyed so you could pair him with an expensive, but volatile arm.
Brad Peacock HOU (at TEX) – Peacock has been solid since joining the rotation with a 3.95 ERA in 68.3 IP with 58 strikeouts. The 34 walks are too high, but he has been improving as the season moves on. In fact, he has a sharp 3.18 ERA in his last 39.7 IP with just 16 walks. He can post a huge strikeout game, too. He fanned 11 Rangers back on May 12th.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Chris Young SEA (v. MIN) – I’m still not sold.
- Kyle Kendrick PHI (at MIL)
- Nick Martinez TEX (v. HOU)
- Vidal Nuno ARI (v. MIA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanaka | 0.263 | 2.55 | 0.266 | 1.36 | 0.264 | 0.753 | 0.950 | 2.10 | 0.242 | 92.69 | 67.4% |
| Bauer | 0.345 | 3.52 | 0.342 | 5.35 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.460 | 4.39 | 0.139 | 78.67 | 63.6% |
| Norris | 0.366 | 5.16 | 0.292 | 2.87 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 1.160 | 3.62 | 0.09 | 96.07 | 63.9% |
| Fister | 0.312 | 3.88 | 0.318 | 3.19 | 0.263 | 0.723 | 1.050 | 2.83 | 0.12 | 76.60 | 66.4% |
| Ryu | 0.327 | 3.52 | 0.283 | 2.92 | 0.274 | 0.762 | 1.210 | 3.12 | 0.145 | 83.47 | 65.7% |
| Verlander | 0.301 | 3.42 | 0.347 | 4.76 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.490 | 4.80 | 0.086 | 98.47 | 62.3% |
| Vargas | 0.331 | 3.18 | 0.324 | 3.95 | 0.239 | 0.673 | 1.250 | 3.53 | 0.105 | 92.35 | 64.1% |
| Hellickson | 0.342 | 5.44 | 0.334 | 4.92 | 0.268 | 0.695 | |||||
| Danks | 0.337 | 4.21 | 0.337 | 4.58 | 0.248 | 0.700 | 1.360 | 4.26 | 0.06 | 92.13 | 62.1% |
| Workman | 0.290 | 4.46 | 0.304 | 3.58 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1.060 | 3.27 | 0.114 | 57.67 | 63.4% |
| Teheran | 0.315 | 3.61 | 0.268 | 2.29 | 0.224 | 0.646 | 0.950 | 2.34 | 0.172 | 86.41 | 66.6% |
| Degrom | 0.354 | 5.60 | 0.341 | 3.57 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.390 | 3.62 | 0.091 | 77.56 | 62.0% |
| Wada | 0.229 | 0.647 | |||||||||
| Holmberg | 0.493 | 13.50 | 0.380 | 6.00 | 0.268 | 0.757 | |||||
| Peacock | 0.362 | 5.74 | 0.304 | 3.93 | 0.257 | 0.689 | 1.510 | 4.21 | 0.073 | 75.73 | 61.1% |
| Martinez | 0.433 | 6.51 | 0.320 | 2.25 | 0.229 | 0.681 | 1.690 | 4.65 | -0.007 | 58.9% | |
| Kendrick | 0.331 | 4.31 | 0.329 | 4.62 | 0.264 | 0.732 | 1.350 | 4.22 | 0.079 | 87.63 | 62.9% |
| Peralta | 0.334 | 3.94 | 0.302 | 3.97 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.250 | 3.20 | 0.121 | 86.56 | 63.9% |
| Worley | 0.428 | 7.07 | 0.396 | 5.53 | 0.259 | 0.692 | 0.970 | 1.74 | 0.113 | 31.67 | 71.6% |
| Martinez | 0.390 | 6.91 | 0.262 | 3.05 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.330 | 4.13 | 0.089 | 17.12 | 61.9% |
| Ross | 0.304 | 3.61 | 0.285 | 2.85 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.270 | 3.18 | 0.133 | 87.53 | 61.2% |
| Morales | 0.291 | 4.32 | 0.418 | 6.11 | 0.199 | 0.586 | 1.570 | 5.75 | 0.061 | 59.05 | 62.3% |
| Hand | 0.288 | 2.93 | 0.366 | 5.90 | 0.253 | 0.703 | 1.790 | 6.38 | 0.035 | 29.00 | 59.3% |
| Nuno | 0.352 | 6.75 | 0.345 | 4.59 | 0.272 | 0.720 | 1.400 | 5.42 | 0.098 | 63.38 | 64.7% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.99 | 0.286 | 3.08 | 0.244 | 0.727 | 1.170 | 2.90 | 0.196 | 90.12 | 65.6% |
| Gray | 0.275 | 2.86 | 0.260 | 2.78 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 1.220 | 3.20 | 0.121 | 89.13 | 61.4% |
| Dickey | 0.333 | 4.32 | 0.311 | 4.08 | 0.257 | 0.731 | 1.380 | 4.24 | 0.098 | 91.35 | 63.8% |
| Skaggs | 0.342 | 4.76 | 0.307 | 4.63 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 1.240 | 4.34 | 0.107 | 94.67 | 64.6% |
| Hughes | 0.328 | 4.12 | 0.343 | 4.74 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.170 | 3.58 | 0.186 | 85.19 | 72.9% |
| Young | 0.297 | 2.82 | 0.315 | 4.28 | 0.246 | 0.705 | 1.16 | 3.15 | 0.032 | 79.69 | 61.4% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window