Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 9th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greinke | LAD | DET | 103.2 | 2.78 | 2.77 | 1.17 | 46.2% | 26.2% | 4.7% | 1.04 | 1.57 |
| Scherzer | DET | LAD | 111.1 | 3.64 | 2.93 | 1.25 | 53.8% | 28.5% | 6.9% | 0.89 | 0.79 |
| Stults | SDP | COL | 87.1 | 5.36 | 4.58 | 1.52 | 23.1% | 12.2% | 5.3% | 1.65 | 1.21 |
| Jurrjens | COL | SDP | |||||||||
| Stroman | TOR | LAA | 42.2 | 4.01 | 3.41 | 1.23 | 66.7% | 20.1% | 5.0% | 0.84 | 1.67 |
| Wilson | LAA | TOR | 108.1 | 3.90 | 3.72 | 1.26 | 53.8% | 22.4% | 9.8% | 0.91 | 1.83 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | ARI | 106.2 | 3.71 | 3.81 | 1.24 | 53.8% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 0.68 | 1.42 |
| Collmenter | ARI | MIA | 91.1 | 3.74 | 4.50 | 1.24 | 27.3% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| Roark | WAS | BAL | 99.2 | 2.98 | 3.87 | 1.16 | 61.5% | 18.1% | 5.9% | 0.63 | 1.28 |
| Chen | BAL | WAS | 92.1 | 4.19 | 3.92 | 1.30 | 38.5% | 16.8% | 4.1% | 1.46 | 1.19 |
| McCarthy | NYY | CLE | 104 | 5.11 | 3.02 | 1.36 | 28.6% | 19.7% | 4.1% | 1.30 | 2.44 |
| Tomlin | CLE | NYY | 64.1 | 3.78 | 3.29 | 1.11 | 33.3% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 1.40 | 0.92 |
| Santana | ATL | NYM | 95.2 | 4.05 | 3.49 | 1.30 | 45.5% | 21.8% | 7.1% | 0.75 | 1.57 |
| Gee | NYM | ATL | 52.2 | 2.73 | 4.42 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 7.1% | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Ventura | KCR | TBR | 88.1 | 3.26 | 3.49 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 20.4% | 6.7% | 0.71 | 1.95 |
| Cobb | TBR | KCR | 64.1 | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 20.7% | 7.4% | 0.98 | 1.71 |
| Sale | CWS | BOS | 78.1 | 2.30 | 2.75 | 0.90 | 50.0% | 27.9% | 5.3% | 0.69 | 1.24 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | CWS | 32.1 | 2.51 | 3.08 | 1.03 | 33.3% | 24.0% | 6.4% | 0.84 | 2.38 |
| Beeler | CHC | CIN | 6 | 0.00 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 0.00 | ||
| Simon | CIN | CHC | 102.2 | 2.81 | 4.06 | 1.06 | 58.3% | 15.5% | 5.8% | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| Keuchel | HOU | TEX | 103.2 | 2.78 | 3.02 | 1.10 | 69.2% | 20.2% | 6.3% | 0.43 | 2.98 |
| Darvish | TEX | HOU | 104.1 | 2.42 | 2.98 | 1.18 | 66.7% | 29.9% | 8.6% | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| Hernandez | PHI | MIL | 86.2 | 4.26 | 4.58 | 1.46 | 27.3% | 16.4% | 11.5% | 1.04 | 2.02 |
| Lohse | MIL | PHI | 114 | 3.08 | 3.94 | 1.08 | 53.8% | 17.0% | 4.7% | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| Cumpton | PIT | STL | 52.2 | 4.61 | 4.13 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 14.0% | 5.3% | 0.17 | 1.94 |
| Lynn | STL | PIT | 101.1 | 3.38 | 3.85 | 1.33 | 46.2% | 20.9% | 8.5% | 0.53 | 1.32 |
| Gibson | MIN | SEA | 93 | 3.77 | 4.27 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 0.58 | 1.89 |
| Elias | SEA | MIN | 104.2 | 3.96 | 3.91 | 1.20 | 23.1% | 20.2% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| Hammel | OAK | SFG | 102.2 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 1.02 | 46.2% | 24.0% | 5.2% | 0.79 | 1.09 |
| Cain | SFG | OAK | 78 | 4.38 | 4.12 | 1.23 | 30.0% | 18.6% | 8.4% | 1.27 | 1.15 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Chris Sale CWS (at BOS) – He is absurd. He’s going to cost a ton, but he’s worth it. He has one bad outing this year – he went 5 IP/3 ER v. CLE, but he still got the win and notched five strikeouts. The only other thing to slow him was a rain delay that limited him to three no-hit innings with four strikeouts against the same Cleveland team about a month and a half later. Since June 1st he has a 2.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 51 IP with 53 Ks and just eight walks. Good luck, Boston.
Yu Darvish TEX (v. HOU) – Darvish gets his favorite team to face. He’s owned the Astros in his career with a 2.29 ERA in seven starts including 72 Ks in 51 IP. He has been either “kinda blah” or “fantastic” in his last seven outings essentially alternating 4 ER and 0 ER outings. He has four of the former and three of the latter yielding a 3.00 ERA in 48 IP with 63 Ks.
Doug Fister WAS (v. BAL) – Fister was rained out yesterday. Fister continues to excel. The strikeouts are still light overall, but he does a great job compensating for that with long outings. He has just six walks on the season and while his season didn’t start until May 9th, that is quite impressive. Baltimore is always tough opposition, but they win by the homer – a strength of Fister’s. He allowed 3 HR in his season debut, but he’s allowed six in his other 10 starts since then.
Jason Hammel OAK (at SF) – I like Hammel to make a nice first impression on his new teammates just as Samardzija did on Sunday. Hammel has been every bit as good as his 2.98 ERA with excellent component numbers across the board (8.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, more groundballs than flyballs, and just 0.8 HR/9). The Giants have been baseball’s worst team against righties with a .255 wOBA over the last month… yes, worse than the Padres (but the Padres are definitely 29th, don’t worry).
Yordano Ventura KC (at TB) – Ventura has been pitching well of late with a 2.52 ERA in his last six starts, but where are the strikeouts? He has just 21 in 39.3 IP of work. Perhaps the decrease is helping him get deeper into games, though, as he’s gone at least seven in four of those six outings. Tampa Bay is definitely playing better of late, but they still don’t possess a threatening offense. Ventura still has a massive strikeout upside, too, so you could get the seven-eight innings with eight or nine strikeouts.
Lance Lynn STL (v. PIT) – Lynn is frustrating because there is no rhyme or reason to his implosion starts. He can be absolutely rolling and then just get pounded by a random team. His last dud happened to come against a quality Dodgers team, but the Giants and Reds have gotten him at points this year, too. When he’s on, he’s still a stud. Even with his 2 IP/6 ER dud against the Dodgers, he has a 2.52 ERA in his six with 34 Ks in 35.7 IP. He goes deep into games and misses plenty of bats. The volatility can be annoying, but the upside aspect of it is enticing.
Alfredo Simon CIN (v. CHC) – Simon’s approach is working. I still think that LOB rate is headed downward sooner than later at 84 percent, but he can still be very successful even if it drops to something in the 76-78 percent level. He’s used a groundball-heavy, no-walk approach to drive his success which helps him get deep into games and make up for his low strikeout totals. I think some correction is coming, but not with a start against the Cubs.
Ervin Santana ATL (at NYM) – Santana has gotten back on track after a rough May. He had a 5.75 ERA in six May starts, but he’s returned to a level we are more used to from him with a 3.66 ERA in his last six starts with 34 Ks and 10 BBs in 39.3 IP. I guess his April is still an upside, but I’d bet on this mid-3.00s level being where he sits the rest of the year. He has owned the Mets the year, allowing just 1 ER in 15 IP with a 13/2 K:BB ratio in two April starts against them.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Rubby de la Rosa BOS (v. CWS) – DLR was squeezed out of the Sox rotation after his June 21st which is unfortunate because he was excellent in against Oakland in that outing. DLR has been impressive in his five starts. Even when he was struggling a little at Detroit and Baltimore, he still logged strikeouts and he has three 7 IP gems surrounding those two 5.7 IP/4 ER efforts.
Dillon Gee NYM (v. ATL) – I’m on the side that doesn’t mind using guys immediately upon returning from the DL. Gee has been great in his eight starts so far this year, though the skills don’t quite support his 2.73 ERA. In fact, his skills have waned as his ERA as dropped, which is odd, but I can definitely see him raising his strikeout rate some against the Braves. Gee went six in his last rehab outing so he should be able to at least match that today provided his pitch count doesn’t get out of hand.
Brandon Cumpton PIT (at STL) – Since his 10 ER nightmare in LA, he has 10 ER in five starts en route to a 2.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 30.3 IP. In fact, he has a 3.12 ERA in his 49 IP outside of that 3.7 IP/10 ER matchup against the Dodgers. He doesn’t miss many bats, but he doesn’t walk guys either and he keeps the ball down.
Bud Norris BAL (v. WAS) – Norris also hasn’t pitched since June 21st, but his was because of injury whereas DLR was demoted. Norris had been on a roll before injury with a 0.92 ERA in three starts against the non-Tampa Bay entities of the AL East. The Nats sputter against righties so I like Norris as an undervalued option coming back from injury. He hasn’t shown as much of that excellent strikeout rate we’ve seen in years past, but he’s also walking a career-low at 2.9 BB/9.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Roberto Hernandez PHI (at MIL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greinke | 0.313 | 2.78 | 0.272 | 2.51 | 0.276 | 0.765 | 1.170 | 2.78 | 0.215 | 87.47 | 65.4% |
| Scherzer | 0.301 | 3.41 | 0.246 | 2.93 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.250 | 3.64 | 0.216 | 96.24 | 65.0% |
| Stults | 0.281 | 4.05 | 0.354 | 4.49 | 0.295 | 0.829 | 1.510 | 5.36 | 0.069 | 72.00 | 65.1% |
| Jurrjens | 0.438 | 2.08 | 0.362 | 9.00 | 0.218 | 0.616 | |||||
| Stroman | 0.417 | 7.36 | 0.306 | 2.70 | 0.257 | 0.731 | 1.220 | 4.01 | 0.151 | 46.36 | 64.5% |
| Wilson | 0.234 | 2.61 | 0.324 | 3.72 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 1.260 | 3.90 | 0.125 | 91.76 | 59.2% |
| Eovaldi | 0.339 | 4.05 | 0.285 | 3.15 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.240 | 3.71 | 0.132 | 83.00 | 67.0% |
| Collmenter | 0.328 | 4.24 | 0.290 | 3.14 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 1.240 | 3.74 | 0.08 | 63.47 | 65.1% |
| Roark | 0.278 | 3.15 | 0.243 | 1.69 | 0.263 | 0.723 | 1.150 | 2.98 | 0.122 | 83.75 | 64.3% |
| Chen | 0.323 | 3.76 | 0.334 | 4.05 | 0.284 | 0.754 | 1.300 | 4.19 | 0.126 | 84.88 | 65.4% |
| McCarthy | 0.338 | 4.54 | 0.345 | 5.08 | 0.264 | 0.753 | 1.360 | 5.11 | 0.156 | 79.76 | 67.0% |
| Tomlin | 0.333 | 4.55 | 0.298 | 2.81 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.100 | 3.78 | 0.185 | 77.27 | 67.4% |
| Santana | 0.327 | 3.52 | 0.282 | 3.56 | 0.224 | 0.646 | 1.300 | 4.05 | 0.147 | 83.07 | 63.0% |
| Gee | 0.348 | 4.23 | 0.286 | 2.86 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.060 | 2.73 | 0.085 | 96.38 | 64.1% |
| Ventura | 0.303 | 3.48 | 0.297 | 3.10 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.270 | 3.26 | 0.137 | 83.47 | 64.8% |
| Cobb | 0.287 | 3.39 | 0.289 | 2.39 | 0.268 | 0.695 | 1.240 | 4.20 | 0.133 | 66.45 | 65.4% |
| Sale | 0.167 | 2.09 | 0.290 | 3.08 | 0.248 | 0.700 | 0.890 | 2.30 | 0.226 | 75.67 | 65.9% |
| De La Rosa | 0.246 | 1.13 | 0.372 | 5.66 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1.020 | 2.51 | 0.176 | 82.40 | 64.6% |
| Beeler | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.170 | 0.00 | 0.13 | ||||||
| Simon | 0.320 | 3.54 | 0.264 | 2.53 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.050 | 2.81 | 0.097 | 74.44 | 65.5% |
| Keuchel | 0.302 | 3.88 | 0.335 | 4.33 | 0.286 | 0.786 | 1.100 | 2.78 | 0.139 | 95.13 | 64.0% |
| Darvish | 0.299 | 3.03 | 0.243 | 2.28 | 0.229 | 0.681 | 1.180 | 2.42 | 0.213 | 92.53 | 62.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.382 | 5.84 | 0.327 | 3.83 | 0.264 | 0.732 | 1.450 | 4.26 | 0.049 | 66.11 | 60.3% |
| Lohse | 0.307 | 3.68 | 0.286 | 2.93 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.080 | 3.08 | 0.123 | 88.06 | 66.7% |
| Cumpton | 0.345 | 5.20 | 0.267 | 3.54 | 0.259 | 0.692 | 1.330 | 4.61 | 0.088 | 69.11 | 65.8% |
| Lynn | 0.333 | 4.52 | 0.289 | 3.18 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.320 | 3.38 | 0.124 | 86.24 | 62.4% |
| Gibson | 0.339 | 4.25 | 0.290 | 4.84 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.190 | 3.77 | 0.06 | 75.31 | 60.1% |
| Elias | 0.302 | 3.86 | 0.310 | 3.93 | 0.240 | 0.671 | 1.190 | 3.96 | 0.119 | 84.53 | 62.6% |
| Hammel | 0.357 | 5.21 | 0.290 | 3.29 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 1.010 | 2.98 | 0.188 | 87.38 | 64.2% |
| Cain | 0.288 | 4.03 | 0.324 | 4.29 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 1.23 | 4.38 | 0.103 | 79.08 | 62.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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