Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 10th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy | SDP | PHI | 79.2 | 3.39 | 2.94 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 1.12 |
| Burnett | PHI | SDP | 79.2 | 4.41 | 4.31 | 1.52 | 41.7% | 18.9% | 11.6% | 0.79 | 2.02 |
| Wood | CHC | PIT | 69.2 | 5.04 | 4.10 | 1.42 | 45.5% | 19.6% | 8.4% | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| Liriano | PIT | CHC | 69.1 | 4.54 | 3.79 | 1.48 | 16.7% | 23.6% | 11.6% | 0.91 | 2.02 |
| Workman | BOS | BAL | 21.2 | 3.74 | 4.23 | 1.23 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 0.42 | 1.13 | |
| Tillman | BAL | BOS | 71 | 5.20 | 4.59 | 1.51 | 33.3% | 17.2% | 10.0% | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| Correia | MIN | TOR | 66.1 | 6.11 | 4.58 | 1.56 | 27.3% | 12.5% | 4.7% | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| Happ | TOR | MIN | 43.2 | 4.12 | 4.57 | 1.55 | 33.3% | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.44 | 0.91 |
| Beckett | LAD | CIN | 66.2 | 2.57 | 3.58 | 1.12 | 40.0% | 23.3% | 8.5% | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| Leake | CIN | LAD | 82 | 3.29 | 3.37 | 1.11 | 54.5% | 16.9% | 4.8% | 0.88 | 2.53 |
| Wainwright | STL | TBR | 93.1 | 2.31 | 3.05 | 0.90 | 75.0% | 24.9% | 5.3% | 0.39 | 1.30 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | STL | 57.2 | 5.31 | 3.34 | 1.54 | 27.3% | 27.4% | 9.7% | 0.78 | 0.94 |
| Estrada | MIL | NYM | 73 | 4.19 | 3.80 | 1.21 | 27.3% | 22.0% | 7.7% | 2.22 | 0.78 |
| Matsuzaka | NYM | MIL | 33.2 | 3.21 | 4.62 | 1.30 | 100.0% | 23.3% | 17.1% | 0.27 | 1.00 |
| Koehler | MIA | TEX | 73 | 3.33 | 4.67 | 1.26 | 63.6% | 16.0% | 10.5% | 0.99 | 1.36 |
| Lewis | TEX | MIA | 53 | 5.77 | 4.20 | 1.77 | 18.5% | 7.6% | 1.02 | 0.82 | |
| Verlander | DET | CWS | 86 | 4.19 | 4.66 | 1.47 | 41.7% | 16.1% | 9.3% | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| Danks | CWS | DET | 75 | 4.32 | 4.56 | 1.33 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 9.3% | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| Kluber | CLE | KCR | 86.1 | 3.23 | 2.77 | 1.22 | 58.3% | 27.3% | 5.5% | 0.63 | 1.45 |
| Vargas | KCR | CLE | 85 | 3.28 | 4.13 | 1.25 | 75.0% | 17.5% | 6.5% | 1.16 | 0.98 |
| Minor | ATL | COL | 44 | 3.07 | 3.56 | 1.23 | 66.7% | 21.7% | 6.5% | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| Nicasio | COL | ATL | 67.1 | 4.68 | 4.37 | 1.40 | 45.5% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Pomeranz | OAK | LAA | 45 | 2.20 | 3.62 | 1.16 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 1.20 | 1.44 | |
| Santiago | LAA | OAK | 37.1 | 4.82 | 4.69 | 1.48 | 14.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% | 1.45 | 0.61 |
| Nuno | NYY | SEA | 52.1 | 5.33 | 4.14 | 1.46 | 25.0% | 18.5% | 7.9% | 1.72 | 0.97 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | NYY | 50.2 | 2.66 | 2.92 | 0.94 | 50.0% | 19.2% | 2.1% | 1.07 | 2.16 |
| Fister | WAS | SFG | 36.2 | 3.19 | 3.21 | 0.99 | 60.0% | 18.9% | 1.4% | 1.47 | 1.45 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | WAS | 80.2 | 2.68 | 2.85 | 1.17 | 50.0% | 26.8% | 5.4% | 0.78 | 1.26 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Madison Bumgarner SF (v. WAS) – There might not be anyone hotter than MadBum right now. He had a rough April in the hits department, but he’s quelled that issue with just 31 over his last 47 IP en route to a 1.91 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 53/3 K:BB ratio.
Adam Wainwright STL (at TB) – Were you really worried about Waino? He bounced back from that 4.3 IP/7 ER dud against SF with an 8 IP/2 ER gem. The Rays just aren’t scaring anyone at the dish right … well, except for their fans. Their .303 wOBA against righties is 21st overall, but they’re lagging of late with a .276 mark that ranks 28th.
Corey Kluber CLE (at KC) – Don’t tell Kluber the Royals are tough to strike out. He notched 11 on them in an April 24th complete game during which he allowed 1 ER. The Royals do hold a 15.1% K rate against righties – easily the league’s best (Detroit, 17.4%) – but Kluber is fanning everyone with 99 strikeouts in his 86.3 IP of work. The only AL team worse against righties in the last month is KC at .273 – last in the league.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. NYY) – I think it’s safe to say the M’s missed Iwakuma. He’s matched last year’s 2.66 ERA through his first seven starts with a filthy 9.0 K:BB ratio in 50.7 IP. He allowed nine of his 15 ER in a two-start stretch against the Astros and Tigers, but then dropped seven scoreless on the Braves his last time out with seven strikeouts and no walks. He’s gone fewer than 6.7 IP just once in seven starts, too. He’s doing his best to emulate his breakout season and while he’s sliced a couple percentage points off of his strikeout rate (to 19.2%), his groundball rate has surged from 48.7% to 55.8% – good for a 2.2 GB/FB ratio.
Doug Fister WAS (at SF) – Fister v. Bumgarner could be the matchup of the night and I wouldn’t blame someone for punting a chance at two wins just to log the big numbers from both of these guys. Since a 4.3 IP/5 ER season debut, he’s ripped off a 2.23 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 26/2 K:BB ratio in 32.3 IP. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of the five starts. Additionally, Fister is a good bit cheaper than these other four at several outlets creating something of a bargain… at least for the time being.
Ian Kennedy SD (at PHI) – Kennedy’s resurgence has been impressive. And perhaps most impressive is the fact that it’s been buoyed by a huge effort on the road as opposed to just leveraging Petco. Kennedy has a 2.61 ERA on the road with a 1.07 WHIP, over a strikeout per inning, and a 4.0 K:BB ratio in 31 IP. He had eight starts of 5+ ER last year in 31 starts; he has just 1 in 13 this year. His velocity is up and his command-and-control looks a lot like it did in 2011 when had a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 222 IP. The Phillies complete our triumvirate of worst teams against righties in the last month with a .275 wOBA that puts them in between TB and KC.
SOLID BUYS:
Josh Beckett LAD (at CIN) – Beckett’s component numbers really suggest that his 2.57 ERA is a bit outsized for him. His SIERA puts him a run high at 3.58 so it’s not like he’s been bad or anything, but his home run issues (1.4 HR/9) can definitely expedite that regression if it is forthcoming. His .240 BABIP and 88.9% LOB rate are reliever-like and unlikely to hold, too. He’s still an OK buy given the competition, but he would be someone I use because I’m forced to by my remaining budget as the last pick in my lineup as opposed to someone I’d build my hitting lineup around after selecting him first or second.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Travis Wood CHC (at PIT) – Wood’s been too good to tote around a 5.04 ERA. He’s got a career-best strikeout rate which has vaulted his K:BB ratio to a four-year high of 2.4. The Pirates aren’t particularly special against lefties and Wood has never had any real issues with them.
A.J. Burnett PHI (v. SD) – Far lesser pitchers deserve a look against San Diego. Burnett has been wild and inconsistent this year, but he can still steamroll this painfully anemic offense.
Jason Vargas KC (v. CLE) – Some of this will be repeated from yesterday as he was rained out, but he gets a new opponent with the rainout —- Vargas has a 1.77 ERA over his last three starts after a 7 ER dud against the White Sox. He’s only got a 1.6 K:BB ratio in those 20.3 IP, but he’s cleaned up his home run issue with just one allowed. He’d allowed 10 in his previous 10 starts including three during that 7 ER meltdown. The Indians haven’t been great against lefties this year with a .295 wOBA as their lefty-killer Ryan Raburn, Nick Swisher, and Yan Gomes have all faded against southpaws.
Colby Lewis TEX (v. MIA) – Here’s your hero play for the day. It’s tough to insert a 5.77 ERA into your lineup, but Lewis has been more than 1.50 runs better when you look at his component numbers. He’s got an obscene .397 BABIP fueling a 12.7 H/9 rate even though his batted ball profile isn’t markedly different from 2012 (when he last pitched) when he had a .279 BABIP. His 2.4 K:BB ratio is well below the 3.4 mark he had from 2010-2012 during his resurgence, but it’s still worthwhile. The Marlins offense has remained cool on the road (and has actually cooled quite a bit at home) recently.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Chris Tillman BAL (v. BOS)
- Jake Odorizzi TB (v. STL)
- John Danks CWS (v. DET)
- Tom Koehler MIA (at TEX)
- Hector Santiago LAA (v. OAK)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy | 0.333 | 4.75 | 0.327 | 4.26 | 0.231 | 0.643 | 1.130 | 3.39 | 0.21 | 102.08 | 65.3% |
| Burnett | 0.361 | 5.18 | 0.256 | 2.49 | 0.221 | 0.623 | 1.510 | 4.41 | 0.073 | 104.08 | 59.5% |
| Wood | 0.256 | 2.76 | 0.311 | 3.90 | 0.262 | 0.708 | 1.410 | 5.04 | 0.113 | 98.00 | 64.8% |
| Liriano | 0.221 | 2.58 | 0.310 | 3.78 | 0.271 | 0.757 | 1.470 | 4.54 | 0.119 | 92.46 | 60.8% |
| Workman | 0.299 | 5.03 | 0.327 | 4.13 | 0.270 | 0.734 | 1.200 | 3.74 | 0.089 | 58.17 | 62.8% |
| Tillman | 0.333 | 4.33 | 0.321 | 3.86 | 0.242 | 0.682 | 1.510 | 5.20 | 0.072 | 98.15 | 62.7% |
| Correia | 0.356 | 4.85 | 0.353 | 4.59 | 0.269 | 0.792 | 1.550 | 6.11 | 0.078 | 89.75 | 62.0% |
| Happ | 0.357 | 4.89 | 0.327 | 4.20 | 0.238 | 0.665 | 1.530 | 4.12 | 0.073 | 74.90 | 63.6% |
| Beckett | 0.364 | 4.70 | 0.299 | 2.73 | 0.243 | 0.676 | 1.110 | 2.57 | 0.148 | 99.27 | 62.0% |
| Leake | 0.323 | 3.50 | 0.297 | 3.19 | 0.269 | 0.763 | 1.110 | 3.29 | 0.121 | 96.92 | 64.3% |
| Wainwright | 0.274 | 3.28 | 0.266 | 2.29 | 0.248 | 0.695 | 0.900 | 2.31 | 0.196 | 102.69 | 67.3% |
| Odorizzi | 0.352 | 4.89 | 0.308 | 4.95 | 0.260 | 0.688 | 1.530 | 5.31 | 0.178 | 95.08 | 62.6% |
| Estrada | 0.288 | 3.48 | 0.333 | 4.50 | 0.226 | 0.646 | 1.210 | 4.19 | 0.143 | 101.75 | 63.9% |
| Matsuzaka | 0.294 | 2.70 | 0.307 | 5.14 | 0.260 | 0.719 | 1.280 | 3.21 | 0.062 | 34.33 | 58.3% |
| Koehler | 0.296 | 4.07 | 0.355 | 4.12 | 0.261 | 0.703 | 1.260 | 3.33 | 0.056 | 96.17 | 61.1% |
| Lewis | 0.407 | 5.79 | 0.355 | 6.08 | 0.259 | 0.736 | 1.770 | 5.77 | 0.108 | 94.60 | 64.1% |
| Verlander | 0.297 | 3.17 | 0.337 | 4.49 | 0.259 | 0.728 | 1.470 | 4.19 | 0.069 | 111.92 | 62.3% |
| Danks | 0.341 | 4.42 | 0.339 | 4.72 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 1.330 | 4.32 | 0.074 | 107.00 | 61.4% |
| Kluber | 0.326 | 4.06 | 0.298 | 3.18 | 0.254 | 0.654 | 1.220 | 3.23 | 0.218 | 100.31 | 67.3% |
| Vargas | 0.328 | 2.97 | 0.328 | 4.07 | 0.236 | 0.649 | 1.250 | 3.28 | 0.11 | 104.54 | 63.5% |
| Minor | 0.261 | 2.62 | 0.304 | 3.40 | 0.296 | 0.829 | 1.230 | 3.07 | 0.152 | 102.57 | 63.5% |
| Nicasio | 0.356 | 5.88 | 0.349 | 4.27 | 0.232 | 0.640 | 1.400 | 4.68 | 0.076 | 95.58 | 62.9% |
| Pomeranz | 0.263 | 2.20 | 0.352 | 3.93 | 0.262 | 0.758 | 1.160 | 2.20 | 0.133 | 51.40 | 62.0% |
| Santiago | 0.318 | 3.79 | 0.340 | 3.90 | 0.244 | 0.733 | 1.470 | 4.82 | 0.079 | 74.44 | 60.7% |
| Nuno | 0.411 | 8.74 | 0.325 | 3.69 | 0.243 | 0.633 | 1.450 | 5.33 | 0.106 | 70.58 | 64.9% |
| Iwakuma | 0.272 | 2.31 | 0.280 | 3.09 | 0.249 | 0.690 | 0.930 | 2.66 | 0.17 | 94.00 | 69.5% |
| Fister | 0.309 | 3.96 | 0.317 | 3.19 | 0.247 | 0.713 | 0.980 | 3.19 | 0.176 | 94.67 | 66.5% |
| Bumgarner | 0.233 | 1.95 | 0.283 | 3.02 | 0.282 | 0.759 | 1.170 | 2.68 | 0.214 | 100.92 | 65.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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