Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 26th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor | ATL | HOU | 53.0 | 4.42 | 3.72 | 1.51 | 62.5% | 20.7% | 6.8% | 1.53 | 1.20 |
| Cosart | HOU | ATL | 80.0 | 4.16 | 4.17 | 1.36 | 30.8% | 17.0% | 9.9% | 0.68 | 2.21 |
| Nolasco | MIN | LAA | 84.1 | 5.66 | 4.18 | 1.57 | 15.4% | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| Weaver | LAA | MIN | 95.2 | 3.67 | 4.17 | 1.17 | 50.0% | 19.2% | 7.7% | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| Koehler | MIA | PHI | 84.1 | 3.84 | 4.50 | 1.25 | 53.8% | 17.2% | 9.9% | 0.96 | 1.24 |
| Hamels | PHI | MIA | 74.1 | 2.78 | 3.28 | 1.20 | 60.0% | 24.9% | 7.9% | 0.48 | 1.51 |
| Matsuzaka | NYM | PIT | 41.2 | 2.81 | 4.65 | 1.26 | 66.7% | 23.0% | 16.9% | 0.22 | 1.11 |
| Worley | PIT | NYM | 7.0 | 0.00 | 3.62 | 0.71 | 19.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.60 | |
| Carroll | CWS | TOR | 42.1 | 4.68 | 4.93 | 1.66 | 40.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 1.06 | 1.74 |
| Happ | TOR | CWS | 53.1 | 4.05 | 4.38 | 1.56 | 25.0% | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| Fister | WAS | CHC | 49.2 | 3.08 | 3.70 | 1.10 | 71.4% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 1.45 | 1.34 |
| Wood | CHC | WAS | 84.1 | 4.48 | 4.25 | 1.37 | 38.5% | 18.7% | 8.4% | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Porcello | DET | TEX | 82.2 | 4.03 | 4.13 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 5.9% | 0.98 | 1.43 |
| Martinez | TEX | DET | 52.2 | 4.44 | 5.57 | 1.72 | 14.3% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 1.37 | 0.76 |
| Friedrich | COL | MIL | |||||||||
| Peralta | MIL | COL | 87.2 | 2.98 | 3.63 | 1.24 | 61.5% | 18.4% | 6.0% | 1.03 | 1.85 |
| Wainwright | STL | LAD | 100.1 | 2.15 | 3.22 | 0.93 | 78.6% | 23.6% | 5.4% | 0.36 | 1.27 |
| Beckett | LAD | STL | 79.2 | 2.49 | 3.43 | 1.04 | 50.0% | 23.9% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| Leake | CIN | SFG | 92.1 | 3.80 | 3.49 | 1.23 | 46.2% | 17.2% | 5.2% | 0.88 | 2.27 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | CIN | 80.0 | 3.94 | 3.97 | 1.34 | 53.8% | 19.9% | 7.6% | 0.79 | 0.96 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Cole Hamels PHI (v. MIA) – It was only a matter of time for Hamels. He carried an ERA well north of 4.00 throughout May, but he was just working off some rough starts as he looked great in three of the five May starts. He’s been nearly flawless in June posting a 0.73 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 40 Ks in 37 IP. Meanwhile, the Marlins offense is sputtering of late with just 2.5 runs in their last eight.
Doug Fister WAS (at CHC) – Since his rough season debut in Oakland, Fister has allowed more than 2 ER just once (6 IP/4 ER at STL) en route to a 2.03 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The Ks have been light with just 34 in 53.3 IP, but the 5.7 K:BB ratio is tremendous. Keeping guys off the bases and not allowing runs can definitely overcome a strikeout deficiency.
Adam Wainwright STL (at LAD) – Waino will likely be the most expensive arm at most outlets which is definitely understandable, but I’m slotting him third because of the elevated cost and the fact that he has the toughest matchup of these top three. I still completely trust him, but value is a consideration and if we can reasonable emulate his production at a lower price with Hamels or Fister, then they become the better options. It’s worth mentioning that the smashing of Wainwright by the Giants was not an indication of things to come as he’s posted a 1.17 ERA in three starts since, going 8, 7, and 8 IP in them.
Josh Beckett LAD (v. STL) – I think some are still waiting for the other shoe to drop, but a healthy Beckett is a damn fine pitcher. He has five starts since the no-hitter and he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of them with a couple of scoreless efforts yielding a 2.03 ERA along with a great 32/6 K:BB ratio in 31 IP. Despite a fantastic 43-36 record, the Cards aren’t a scary offensive team this year. Despite their explosion in Coors earlier this week (22 R in 3 games), they are still averaging just 3.7 runs per game in June.
Wily Peralta MIL (v. COL) – Peralta has spent the month on the road including an outing in Coors Field last time out in which he acquitted himself well enough with a 7.7 IP/3 ER effort. He doesn’t log many strikeouts as he succeeds via the groundball (55%), so we need a long outing for a big score out of Peralta. He’s gone more than 6 IP in nine of his 15 outings and some healthy run support has him on a four-game winning streak. I can live with four or five strikeouts as long as he goes seven and leaves with a chance to win.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Tom Koehler MIA (at PHI) – Strikeouts are sparse on the board today! A couple of the studs can miss bats, but by and large, it’s a lot of guys with 6-7 Ks or fewer per nine innings. Koehler has been up and down this year and his skills don’t really match his 3.74 ERA, but when he’s on, he can be fantastic. As I have mentioned before, I actually don’t mind volatility in my value plays. Sure, he’ll have some duds that could end my night before it starts, but his worst outings have been against teams I wouldn’t use him for (MIL, LAD, TEX) while he has eight gems in his 15 starts. The Phillies have been wretched against righties this year.
Vance Worley PIT (v. NYM) – Worley’s return to the NL is off to a great start with big outings against the Marlins and Cubs. He hasn’t quite gotten on the Pirates bandwagon of heavy groundball usage, but he joined the team at the exact right time to be a flyball pitcher with Cutch, Polanco, and Marte patrolling the outfield.
Travis Wood CHC (v. WAS) – Wood is another volatile option, but it’s really been three ugly starts marring his ERA. He has allowed 20 ER in the three starts over just 12.3 IP, but has a 2.93 ERA in his other 76.7 IP including a solid 2.96 ERA in four June starts. The Nats are having a tremendous June, but it’s been their pitching as they are still averaging 3.8 runs per game – including four or fewer in each of their last eight.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- J.A. Happ TOR (v. CWS)
- Nick Martinez TEX (v. DET)
- Scott Carroll CWS (at TOR)
- Christian Friedrich COL (at MIL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor | 0.272 | 2.70 | 0.315 | 3.74 | 0.268 | 0.739 | 1.510 | 4.42 | 0.139 | 101.44 | 63.2% |
| Cosart | 0.278 | 2.85 | 0.332 | 3.83 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.360 | 4.16 | 0.070 | 97.36 | 61.9% |
| Nolasco | 0.344 | 4.47 | 0.317 | 4.17 | 0.257 | 0.731 | 1.570 | 5.66 | 0.100 | 100.21 | 62.8% |
| Weaver | 0.299 | 3.59 | 0.295 | 3.21 | 0.246 | 0.705 | 1.160 | 3.67 | 0.115 | 98.40 | 61.2% |
| Koehler | 0.294 | 4.14 | 0.350 | 4.34 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.250 | 3.84 | 0.073 | 94.57 | 61.6% |
| Hamels | 0.309 | 4.68 | 0.303 | 3.08 | 0.272 | 0.720 | 1.200 | 2.78 | 0.171 | 105.64 | 65.0% |
| Matsuzaka | 0.300 | 2.56 | 0.296 | 4.61 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.250 | 2.81 | 0.062 | 35.86 | 59.0% |
| Worley | 0.428 | 7.07 | 0.396 | 5.53 | 0.224 | 0.646 | 0.710 | 0.00 | 0.192 | 95.00 | 71.6% |
| Carroll | 0.402 | 4.88 | 0.360 | 4.58 | 0.263 | 0.766 | 1.650 | 4.68 | 0.010 | 71.90 | 59.2% |
| Happ | 0.350 | 4.66 | 0.333 | 4.22 | 0.240 | 0.668 | 1.560 | 4.05 | 0.085 | 77.83 | 64.6% |
| Fister | 0.312 | 3.88 | 0.318 | 3.19 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.090 | 3.08 | 0.138 | 95.75 | 66.4% |
| Wood | 0.250 | 2.70 | 0.312 | 3.80 | 0.284 | 0.754 | 1.360 | 4.48 | 0.103 | 99.29 | 64.3% |
| Porcello | 0.346 | 4.63 | 0.283 | 3.84 | 0.257 | 0.689 | 1.250 | 4.03 | 0.097 | 99.15 | 65.2% |
| Martinez | 0.433 | 6.51 | 0.320 | 2.25 | 0.276 | 0.765 | 1.710 | 4.44 | 0.004 | 71.62 | 58.9% |
| Friedrich | 0.238 | 0.698 | |||||||||
| Peralta | 0.334 | 3.94 | 0.302 | 3.97 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.230 | 2.98 | 0.124 | 98.93 | 63.9% |
| Wainwright | 0.276 | 3.21 | 0.264 | 2.25 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 0.930 | 2.15 | 0.181 | 101.93 | 67.1% |
| Beckett | 0.343 | 4.50 | 0.294 | 2.59 | 0.259 | 0.692 | 1.030 | 2.49 | 0.164 | 97.77 | 62.5% |
| Leake | 0.328 | 3.58 | 0.305 | 3.43 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 1.220 | 3.80 | 0.120 | 96.07 | 64.2% |
| Vogelsong | 0.338 | 4.54 | 0.370 | 5.36 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.340 | 3.94 | 0.123 | 95.29 | 61.5% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window