Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 30th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flande | COL | WAS | |||||||||
| Zimmermann | WAS | COL | 84.2 | 2.98 | 3.26 | 1.18 | 38.5% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 0.64 | 1.68 |
| Archer | TBR | NYY | 79.1 | 3.40 | 3.83 | 1.38 | 53.8% | 20.8% | 9.4% | 0.34 | 1.81 |
| Phelps | NYY | TBR | 58.1 | 4.32 | 4.18 | 1.43 | 14.3% | 19.4% | 9.7% | 0.77 | 1.11 |
| Saunders | TEX | BAL | 26 | 3.46 | 4.49 | 1.77 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 0.69 | 2.17 |
| Jimenez | BAL | TEX | 76 | 4.86 | 4.58 | 1.51 | 23.1% | 20.4% | 13.5% | 1.07 | 1.46 |
| Kazmir | OAK | DET | 88 | 2.05 | 3.47 | 0.98 | 61.5% | 20.9% | 5.8% | 0.51 | 1.44 |
| Sanchez | DET | OAK | 62.2 | 2.44 | 3.41 | 0.95 | 40.0% | 24.3% | 7.8% | 0.14 | 1.25 |
| Wheeler | NYM | ATL | 78 | 4.38 | 3.57 | 1.42 | 46.2% | 23.5% | 10.1% | 0.58 | 2.03 |
| Wood | ATL | NYM | 60.1 | 3.43 | 2.97 | 1.30 | 57.1% | 25.2% | 6.0% | 1.04 | 1.42 |
| Arrieta | CHC | BOS | 43 | 2.09 | 3.16 | 1.26 | 28.6% | 24.6% | 7.8% | 0.21 | 2.10 |
| Peavy | BOS | CHC | 87.1 | 4.53 | 4.37 | 1.45 | 38.5% | 17.7% | 8.7% | 1.34 | 1.01 |
| Walker | SEA | HOU | |||||||||
| McHugh | HOU | SEA | 59.1 | 3.03 | 3.29 | 1.08 | 55.6% | 27.2% | 9.1% | 0.61 | 1.04 |
| Duffy | KCR | MIN | 54 | 2.83 | 4.41 | 1.11 | 42.9% | 18.8% | 9.9% | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Pino | MIN | KCR | |||||||||
| Richards | LAA | CWS | 87.2 | 2.87 | 3.37 | 1.11 | 53.8% | 24.4% | 8.4% | 0.21 | 1.65 |
| Noesi | CWS | LAA | 57 | 5.37 | 4.18 | 1.56 | 25.0% | 18.8% | 8.2% | 1.42 | 0.85 |
| Kluber | CLE | LAD | 96.2 | 3.35 | 2.94 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 26.4% | 6.4% | 0.65 | 1.55 |
| Haren | LAD | CLE | 86.1 | 3.54 | 3.92 | 1.25 | 38.5% | 15.4% | 3.9% | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Latos | CIN | SDP | 6 | 0.00 | 3.83 | 0.33 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | |
| Hahn | SDP | CIN | 9.2 | 3.72 | 3.45 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 1.86 | 1.43 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (v. COL) – Zimm is looking to cap off a huge June tonight. After carrying a 4.07 ERA through May, he has posted a 1.18 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in five starts with 36 Ks and a 7.2 K:BB ratio. In short, he has returned to the Zimmermann we know and love. I’d obviously be more concerned with the Rockies in Coors, but on the road, they are inconsistent at best and generally poor overall with the 20th wOBA against righties.
Mat Latos CIN (at SD) – Latos has two good and one bad in his three starts since returning from the DL with the lone bad one coming against Toronto which is absolutely defensible. A return to his original team sets up nicely for a huge outing. I expect him to top five strikeouts for the first time this year and there is a great chance that we see his longest outing of the year, too (he went 7 IP his last time out). Obviously anyone against SD gets a look, but when it’s a stud arm, the interest is up another level.
Garrett Richards LAA (at CWS) – Richards has got that “effectively wild” thing down. He’s leading the league in wild pitches (14), but he’s also leading the league in home run rate (0.3 HR/9) and the AL in hits per nine with 6.7. He’s finally missing bats with that killer stuff with a career-high 8.8 K/9, too. All of that has led to a 2.76 ERA that is well-supported by his stats. His 3.7% HR/FB rate is definitely an outlier that will regress some, but I’m not concerned about him imploding. He’s legitimately a good pitcher.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at BOS) – Arrieta is having a tremendous season and he’s emerged as a great option on the daily landscape, especially at the outlets that have been a little reticent to price him as an ace. Over his last four, he’s got an incredible 1.00 ERA over 27 IP with a filthy 36/2 K:BB ratio. He has 7+ strikeouts in all four outings and in six of his 10 outings for the year. In fact, he’s only fanned fewer than five in two outings and he didn’t even last five in either of those. The Red Sox can still be dangerous, particularly at home, but they are nowhere near the worrisome matchup they were a year ago.
Anibal Sanchez DET (v. OAK) – Sanchez has arguably been Detroit’s most consistent pitcher this month as the studs – Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer – have a 5.70 ERA in 11 starts. Sanchez has a 2.84 ERA in the month with three straight wins, including one his last time when he wasn’t quite as sharp with a 5.3 IP/4 ER effort in Texas. It’s a tough matchup with Oakland, but I think Sanchez is matchup-proof. And while one start shouldn’t overwhelmingly convince you one way or the other, it is at least a tick comforting that he ripped the A’s in an 8.1 IP/1 ER outing back on May 28th.
Scott Kazmir OAK (at DET) – I was really surprised to see him get destroyed by the Mets of all teams, but it happens. To give you an idea of how good he’s been this year, the 3 IP/7 ER trouncing in Citi Field pushed his ERA allll the way up to 2.66 for the season. Kazmir was opposing Sanchez in that aforementioned May 28th outing and he emerged victorious with a complete game during which he allowed just one earned run. The one factor missing from Kaz’s game that used to be there is his strikeout rate. It’s at 7.7 for the season, down from 8.8 in his career prior to 2014, but it’s trending upward lately with 39 strikeouts in 38.3 IP over his last six starting with that gem against Detroit.
Corey Kluber CLE (at LAD) – Kluber is back on track after a modest start to June with back-to-back 7 IP gems. He is a strikeout machine and when he’s on, he’s guaranteed for at least seven strong. The only issue with some of the best arms today is that they have some tough matchups and Kluber is definitely included in that group with the Dodgers on tap. You should let price be your tiebreaker today if you’re looking at Kluber, Zimmermann, Kazmir, Richards, and Sanchez together as they all have strong offenses to contend with tonight.
Collin McHugh HOU (v. SEA) – Tough sledding of late for McHugh as he’s come away with an 0-3 record in his last three despite a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 18 IP of work. He has 21 strikeouts in that stretch, too, and that continues to be one of my bigger shocks of the season. His strikeout ability wasn’t something I ever saw coming and yet he’s kept it up through his 12 starts with fewer than six just three times. He fanned four in each of those three outings, but he only went 4, 5, and 6.3 IP in those, so it was still a pretty strong rate.
Chris Archer TB (at NYY) – I guess he was due for a mediocre outing after his obscene run of an 0.89 ERA in seven starts with 43 strikeouts in 40.7 IP. His 7 IP/4 ER against Pittsburgh was made more palatable with the seven strikeouts and as long as he’s missing bats, he will be very worthwhile, even in his shakier outings. His inconsistency has been a bit annoying, but the highs are game-changers.
Jesse Hahn SD (v. CIN) – Hahn has been a revelation for the Padres. Acquired from the Rays, he struggled in his MLB debut before ripping off three straight gems during which he has posted a 0.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 19 IP with 22 strikeouts and just six walks. Only one of those was at home, so it’s not like you can just chalk it up to Petco, either. The competition hasn’t exactly been fierce with the Mets, Mariners, and Giants, but this newcomer is showing out. The Reds offense has been more capable in June with 5.0 runs per game, but they aren’t exactly one to avoid, especially in Petco Park. I’m really excited for this Latos-Hahn matchup and I wouldn’t be above using both in a lineup.
Alex Wood ATL (v. NYM) – A sharp return to the rotation (and majors) for Wood saw him drop seven scoreless on the Astros with just three hits and one walk allowed. I’m still not entirely sold on Wood as a long-term starter, but I don’t mind spot-starting him against weaker opponents like the Astros or the Mets. He can miss tons of bats when he’s on; he also keeps the ball on the ground and he’s really trimmed that walk rate. The Mets are better against lefties than righties, but they still rate below league average.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Danny Duffy KC (at MIN) – Duffy is having a brilliant June with a 1.71 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 31.7 IP with 28 strikeouts and 10 walks in five starts. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of the starts and he’s gone 6+ IP in all but one (5.7 IP v. NYY was the other). The stuff is there for him to be excellent and he’s really shown that in June. He isn’t quite a rock-solid, must-trust starter right now, but the upside makes him a worthy gamble in just about any outing.
Taijuan Walker SEA (v. HOU) – He’s back! Walker makes his season debut tonight after a lengthy eight-start rehab stint across three minor league levels. He’s going to be cheap at many sites because he has all of 15 major league innings under his belt and of course none so far this year. He can miss a ton of bats and the fact that he threw a complete game with 109 pitches in his last Triple-A outing suggests that he won’t be unreasonably capped innings- or pitch-wise tonight. If he’s rolling, they will let him go seven or eight innings.
Zack Wheeler NYM (at ATL) – June has been a microcosm of Wheeler’s volatility. He’s gone 6.7 IP/0 ER, 3.7 IP/4 ER, 5 IP/4 ER, 9 IP/0 ER, and 2 IP/6 ER in his five starts. As I’ve mentioned a lot lately, I actually like that kind of volatility with my value plays. Sure, it can damage my night severely (as the 5 IP/4 ER outing against SD did, except in my 50-50s), but it also keeps his price depressed making him a tremendous bargain when he drops one of his huge outings like the shutout in Miami. This is what it’s like with an inexperienced 24-year old arm. Guys like Jose Fernandez or Wheeler’s teammate Matt Harvey are very much the exception.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Dan Haren LAD (v. CLE)
- Yohan Flande COL (v. WAS)
- Yohan Pino MIN (v. KC)
- Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (v. TEX)
- Joe Saunders TEX (at BAL)
- Hector Noesi CWS (v. LAA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flande | 0.284 | 0.754 | |||||||||
| Zimmermann | 0.302 | 3.40 | 0.278 | 2.99 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.170 | 2.98 | 0.163 | 89.07 | 68.8% |
| Archer | 0.318 | 3.73 | 0.270 | 2.76 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.370 | 3.40 | 0.114 | 95.93 | 62.4% |
| Phelps | 0.312 | 3.86 | 0.362 | 5.87 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.420 | 4.32 | 0.097 | 58.76 | 60.8% |
| Saunders | 0.263 | 2.89 | 0.410 | 5.83 | 0.264 | 0.724 | 1.770 | 3.46 | 0.041 | 94.80 | 59.5% |
| Jimenez | 0.309 | 3.86 | 0.317 | 3.75 | 0.257 | 0.689 | 1.510 | 4.86 | 0.069 | 101.43 | 60.5% |
| Kazmir | 0.269 | 3.12 | 0.309 | 3.43 | 0.274 | 0.762 | 0.980 | 2.05 | 0.151 | 93.00 | 65.7% |
| Sanchez | 0.277 | 3.07 | 0.250 | 1.92 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 0.940 | 2.44 | 0.165 | 95.55 | 64.5% |
| Wheeler | 0.352 | 5.09 | 0.285 | 2.96 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.420 | 4.38 | 0.134 | 100.29 | 61.3% |
| Wood | 0.305 | 2.93 | 0.310 | 3.47 | 0.252 | 0.674 | 1.290 | 3.43 | 0.192 | 53.28 | 66.0% |
| Arrieta | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.315 | 4.11 | 0.244 | 0.686 | 1.260 | 2.09 | 0.168 | 91.38 | 62.7% |
| Peavy | 0.330 | 4.49 | 0.316 | 4.23 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.440 | 4.53 | 0.09 | 102.79 | 63.7% |
| Walker | 0.234 | 3.72 | 0.253 | 3.60 | 0.229 | 0.681 | |||||
| McHugh | 0.335 | 4.75 | 0.321 | 5.61 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.080 | 3.03 | 0.181 | 99.30 | 64.4% |
| Duffy | 0.195 | 0.49 | 0.295 | 3.24 | 0.240 | 0.671 | 1.110 | 2.83 | 0.09 | 62.29 | 61.8% |
| Pino | 0.268 | 0.695 | |||||||||
| Richards | 0.304 | 3.76 | 0.272 | 3.71 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1.110 | 2.87 | 0.16 | 98.71 | 61.9% |
| Noesi | 0.371 | 5.32 | 0.400 | 6.57 | 0.257 | 0.731 | 1.560 | 5.37 | 0.106 | 67.27 | 64.0% |
| Kluber | 0.328 | 4.16 | 0.297 | 3.13 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.260 | 3.35 | 0.201 | 98.73 | 67.0% |
| Haren | 0.309 | 4.89 | 0.349 | 3.82 | 0.264 | 0.753 | 1.250 | 3.54 | 0.115 | 100.57 | 64.6% |
| Latos | 0.309 | 3.17 | 0.282 | 3.05 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 0.330 | 0.00 | 0.2 | 87.00 | 69.0% |
| Hahn | 0.245 | 3.18 | 0.360 | 4.50 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.240 | 3.72 | 0.167 | 83.00 | 62.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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