Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 4th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnett | PHI | WAS | 66.2 | 3.51 | 4.17 | 1.44 | 41.7% | 19.8% | 11.5% | 0.73 | 2.04 |
| Strasburg | WAS | PHI | 68.1 | 3.42 | 2.66 | 1.29 | 58.3% | 28.5% | 6.0% | 0.61 | 1.58 |
| Chavez | OAK | NYY | 62 | 2.61 | 3.31 | 1.13 | 54.5% | 22.7% | 6.4% | 1.06 | 1.50 |
| Nuno | NYY | OAK | 41 | 5.49 | 4.26 | 1.51 | 25.0% | 17.9% | 8.2% | 1.70 | 0.88 |
| Workman | BOS | CLE | 11.1 | 3.18 | 3.99 | 1.17 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 0.54 | 1.25 | |
| Kluber | CLE | BOS | 72.2 | 3.10 | 2.64 | 1.27 | 58.3% | 28.4% | 5.4% | 0.56 | 1.41 |
| Dickey | TOR | DET | 68.1 | 3.95 | 4.25 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 0.74 | 1.28 |
| Porcello | DET | TOR | 58 | 3.88 | 3.96 | 1.16 | 60.0% | 16.3% | 5.8% | 0.99 | 1.53 |
| Koehler | MIA | TBR | 61 | 3.10 | 4.60 | 1.16 | 63.6% | 15.9% | 9.9% | 0.79 | 1.33 |
| Price | TBR | MIA | 77.1 | 4.42 | 2.72 | 1.18 | 41.7% | 25.6% | 2.6% | 1.28 | 1.11 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | CIN | 56.1 | 3.20 | 4.10 | 1.25 | 54.5% | 19.4% | 8.4% | 0.86 | 0.94 |
| Cingrani | CIN | SFG | 44.1 | 4.06 | 4.27 | 1.43 | 33.3% | 21.6% | 11.7% | 1.46 | 0.92 |
| Matsuzaka | NYM | CHC | 27 | 2.33 | 4.12 | 1.11 | 100.0% | 25.4% | 15.9% | 0.31 | 1.04 |
| Jackson | CHC | NYM | 58.1 | 4.94 | 3.71 | 1.45 | 18.2% | 22.3% | 8.8% | 0.57 | 1.32 |
| Norris | BAL | TEX | 56.1 | 3.83 | 4.44 | 1.18 | 20.0% | 15.6% | 7.8% | 1.01 | 1.15 |
| Martinez | TEX | BAL | 33.2 | 2.14 | 5.33 | 1.45 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| Wainwright | STL | KCR | 81 | 1.67 | 3.06 | 0.85 | 75.0% | 24.7% | 5.2% | 0.42 | 1.18 |
| Vargas | KCR | STL | 71 | 3.55 | 3.99 | 1.20 | 75.0% | 18.5% | 6.6% | 1.29 | 0.98 |
| Richards | LAA | HOU | 66 | 3.00 | 3.65 | 1.12 | 45.5% | 23.3% | 9.8% | 0.27 | 1.59 |
| Cosart | HOU | LAA | 55.1 | 4.39 | 4.65 | 1.40 | 36.4% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 0.75 | 1.92 |
| Estrada | MIL | MIN | 61 | 3.98 | 3.65 | 1.13 | 27.3% | 22.8% | 7.4% | 2.28 | 0.77 |
| Nolasco | MIN | MIL | 60.1 | 6.12 | 4.45 | 1.58 | 18.2% | 14.7% | 6.9% | 1.36 | 1.12 |
| Collmenter | ARI | COL | 53 | 3.91 | 4.30 | 1.21 | 33.3% | 15.5% | 5.7% | 1.31 | 0.86 |
| Lyles | COL | ARI | 60 | 3.45 | 3.97 | 1.22 | 63.6% | 16.9% | 9.2% | 0.55 | 2.67 |
| Danks | CWS | LAD | 60.2 | 4.90 | 4.54 | 1.43 | 36.4% | 16.6% | 9.1% | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| Beckett | LAD | CWS | 55.2 | 2.43 | 3.57 | 1.03 | 40.0% | 23.6% | 8.7% | 1.19 | 1.23 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. PHI) – Since getting knocked around in Miami back in mid-April, Strasburg has gone 6+ IP in his last eight starts with a 2.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 57 Ks, and a 5.7 K/BB ratio in 53.3 IP. In short, he’s been amazing. One of those starts was a 6 IP/0 ER (but 3 unearned runs) outing in Philly with five strikeouts.
Corey Kluber CLE (v. BOS) – Speaking of strikeouts justifying a price tag, Kluber has been brilliant lately en route to an MLB-best 95 strikeouts. He fanned at least 8 in each of his six May starts, allowing more than 2 ER just once, too (3 ER v. DET). He went into the seventh inning in all six starts as well, though fell an out short of completing at least seven in each when he went 6.7 IP at TB. Most sites have caught up to him pricing wise, but he’s worth every dollar with excellent numbers across the board.
Adam Wainwright STL (at KC) – Waino ruined some nights with his last outing, but every pitcher has one or two of those each season. The most amazing thing is that he still has a 2.32 ERA despite the 7 ER against San Francisco and a 6 ER dud against the Cubs. I’m not afraid to trust Wainwright again on the heels of his meltdown last time out. In fact, that might be the best time to pounce since a lot of players will be more inclined to go elsewhere with their stud play because of the poor last outing even though it’s unlikely indicative of further struggles just like when Kershaw was wrecked by the D’Backs.
David Price TB (v. MIA) – Despite a less-than-stellar 4.27 ERA, Price still has an MLB-best 10.0 K/BB ratio with 90 Ks and 9 BBs in his 84.3 IP of work this year. His 2.72 SIERA points to a markedly better pitcher causing me to buy heavily in both season-long leagues and daily leagues – especially at the sites that are most overreacting to his elevated ERA right now.
Garrett Richards LAA (at HOU) – Richards has a pair of 5 ER stinkers within his last three, including one against these Astros, but the skills still support him. He’s averaging just under a strikeout per inning (64 in 66.7 IP) with a passable walk rate of 9.8 percent. He still sputters a bit with runners on with a 69.8% LOB rate which is actually a career-high (league average sits around 72%). His FIP shows a 2.80 pitcher, but that’s with an excellent, but likely unsustainable 3.7% HR/FB rate. His 3.66 SIERA says his skills have yielded exactly what they should have to date, though the distribution is a little funky with a 2.42 ERA in his first eight starts and then an ugly 7.98 in these last three.
Ryan Vogelsong SF (at CIN) – Vogelsong appears to be back to the guy from 2011-2012 with a 3.45 ERA in 62.7 IP and the skills to support it. Funny what health can do for someone, huh? His only real meltdown was in Coors which shouldn’t have been used by anyone in the first place, though. In fact, since that outing, he has a 1.94 ERA in seven starts along with 40 Ks and 14 BBs in 46.3 IP. The Reds exploded a bit on Lincecum, but they have been mostly inept at the dish this season.
Jesse Chavez OAK (at NYY) – I bumped Chavez down a bit from where I’d normally have him because of the recent home tendencies and a trip to Yankee Stadium. Even with his inflated HR issues in May, he still managed a useful 3.90 ERA in 30 IP across five starts. There have been some issues getting deeper into games lately, though, with fewer than 6 IP in three of his five May outings, but he’s shown that he can go seven strong when he’s at his best.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
John Danks CWS (at LAD) – Danks is hot of late with back-to-back gems and now he gets a Dodgers team that has been brutal against southpaws all season. Their .279 wOBA is dead last in the league and their .305 mark from a year ago wasn’t particularly special, either. Danks has four quality starts in his last five, but the other one of those was a 4.7 IP/7 ER shellacking in Houston (they aren’t as brutal these days).
Jason Vargas KC (v. STL) – Vargas predictably slid back a bit in May raising his ERA from 2.40 to 3.39, but his skills were strong despite a 4.54 ERA in six starts. He had 36 Ks in 35.7 IP and just 13 BBs, good for a 2.8 K/BB ratio. The seven homers he allowed kept his ERA high, though. The Cards have been worthless against southpaws for the second straight season making this a great opportunity to take a shot with Vargas, especially as he appears to have regained his footing with just 2 ER against the Angels and Jays – both on the road.
Daisuke Matsuzaka NYM (at CHC) – Dice-K was great in his only start of the season back on May 25th going 6 IP/2 ER against the D’Backs with six punchouts and I like him here against the Cubbies, too. His walk rate is sky-high on the season thanks to some struggles out of the pen, but he’s been just about unhittable which mitigates the trouble of the elevated walk count. He’s missing plenty of bats, too. The bottom line is that this is a matchup play and he’s going to be dirt-cheap just about everywhere.
Tom Koehler MIA (at TB) – This is a boom or bust play as Koehler’s skills don’t support his 3.18 ERA at all, but the Rays have just been garbage at the dish this year and they just lost Wil Myers to injury. This is the kind of guy you look at for some upside if you’re dead-set on using an ace along with a couple of power bats. His 80.2% LOB rate is very unlikely to last, as his .241 BABIP. Both can be strong, but they are currently elite despite less-than-elite stuff for Koehler.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Marco Estrada MIL (at MIN) – He’s allowed homers in 10 of his 11 starts, including five starts with multiple homers allowed. The Twins offense sputtered in May, but I’m staying away from Estrada right now.
Jordan Lyles COL (v. ARI) – While his ERA is actually better at home, the skills are markedly worse. He has just a 1.4 K/BB ratio at home compared to a more palatable 2.1 mark on the road.
- Bud Norris BAL (at TEX)
- Josh Collmenter ARI (at COL)
- Nick Martinez TEX (v. BAL)
- Vidal Nuno NYY (v. OAK)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnett | 0.356 | 4.94 | 0.251 | 2.31 | 0.239 | 0.679 | 1.440 | 3.79 | 0.084 | 113.55 | 59.4% |
| Strasburg | 0.280 | 3.16 | 0.278 | 3.01 | 0.232 | 0.647 | 1.280 | 3.15 | 0.225 | 105.91 | 67.0% |
| Chavez | 0.313 | 3.63 | 0.257 | 2.95 | 0.252 | 0.704 | 1.180 | 2.78 | 0.163 | 107.50 | 67.2% |
| Nuno | 0.426 | 9.28 | 0.319 | 3.63 | 0.242 | 0.728 | 1.450 | 5.48 | 0.097 | 75.50 | 64.9% |
| Workman | 0.305 | 4.80 | 0.333 | 4.28 | 0.263 | 0.755 | 1.200 | 3.24 | 0.101 | 66.00 | 63.3% |
| Kluber | 0.326 | 4.01 | 0.298 | 3.13 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.230 | 3.04 | 0.23 | 109.45 | 67.5% |
| Dickey | 0.327 | 4.36 | 0.310 | 4.15 | 0.274 | 0.757 | 1.360 | 4.30 | 0.09 | 114.45 | 63.6% |
| Porcello | 0.350 | 4.65 | 0.276 | 3.68 | 0.266 | 0.785 | 1.230 | 3.82 | 0.105 | 109.22 | 65.5% |
| Koehler | 0.290 | 4.00 | 0.352 | 4.12 | 0.243 | 0.682 | 1.210 | 3.18 | 0.06 | 105.60 | 61.5% |
| Price | 0.259 | 3.44 | 0.312 | 3.76 | 0.276 | 0.738 | 1.160 | 4.27 | 0.231 | 117.82 | 70.1% |
| Vogelsong | 0.325 | 4.34 | 0.373 | 5.48 | 0.247 | 0.683 | 1.280 | 3.45 | 0.11 | 104.60 | 60.3% |
| Cingrani | 0.255 | 3.10 | 0.323 | 3.42 | 0.244 | 0.717 | 1.460 | 4.01 | 0.099 | 106.25 | 59.9% |
| Matsuzaka | 0.289 | 2.38 | 0.297 | 4.81 | 0.223 | 0.637 | 1.160 | 2.45 | 0.095 | 35.33 | 59.1% |
| Jackson | 0.364 | 5.87 | 0.320 | 4.32 | 0.226 | 0.643 | 1.410 | 4.81 | 0.136 | 106.10 | 62.9% |
| Norris | 0.375 | 5.34 | 0.288 | 2.92 | 0.258 | 0.688 | 1.190 | 4.04 | 0.078 | 115.11 | 63.8% |
| Martinez | 0.369 | 3.54 | 0.322 | 1.96 | 0.265 | 0.716 | 1.500 | 2.75 | 0.018 | 75.33 | 58.7% |
| Wainwright | 0.276 | 3.29 | 0.267 | 2.30 | 0.256 | 0.658 | 0.910 | 2.32 | 0.195 | 111.27 | 67.5% |
| Vargas | 0.317 | 2.86 | 0.333 | 4.19 | 0.232 | 0.653 | 1.230 | 3.39 | 0.119 | 112.91 | 63.4% |
| Richards | 0.315 | 4.12 | 0.278 | 4.00 | 0.224 | 0.670 | 1.230 | 3.65 | 0.135 | 106.10 | 60.1% |
| Cosart | 0.278 | 2.54 | 0.328 | 3.94 | 0.252 | 0.733 | 1.380 | 4.18 | 0.039 | 104.80 | 60.7% |
| Estrada | 0.288 | 3.41 | 0.330 | 4.44 | 0.244 | 0.699 | 1.180 | 4.03 | 0.154 | 112.30 | 63.9% |
| Nolasco | 0.346 | 4.50 | 0.308 | 3.97 | 0.255 | 0.704 | 1.600 | 5.70 | 0.079 | 109.70 | 62.5% |
| Collmenter | 0.323 | 3.79 | 0.282 | 2.87 | 0.279 | 0.790 | 1.080 | 3.34 | 0.098 | 77.75 | 65.4% |
| Lyles | 0.329 | 5.52 | 0.350 | 4.30 | 0.248 | 0.680 | 1.260 | 3.46 | 0.077 | 105.40 | 59.8% |
| Danks | 0.342 | 4.36 | 0.345 | 4.90 | 0.215 | 0.642 | 1.400 | 4.66 | 0.074 | 117.70 | 61.6% |
| Beckett | 0.344 | 4.59 | 0.303 | 2.89 | 0.259 | 0.724 | 1.040 | 2.52 | 0.149 | 110.33 | 61.8% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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