Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 6th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lohse | MIL | PIT | 83 | 2.60 | 3.53 | 1.00 | 58.3% | 19.7% | 3.9% | 0.87 | 1.09 |
| Cumpton | PIT | MIL | 22.1 | 6.85 | 4.18 | 1.49 | 50.0% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 0.40 | 1.85 |
| Milone | OAK | BAL | 60 | 3.60 | 4.59 | 1.25 | 40.0% | 15.2% | 7.4% | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Chen | BAL | OAK | 63.1 | 4.26 | 3.72 | 1.38 | 27.3% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 0.99 | 1.45 |
| Lynn | STL | TOR | 72.1 | 3.48 | 3.92 | 1.37 | 50.0% | 19.8% | 8.5% | 0.50 | 1.43 |
| Stroman | TOR | STL | 12.1 | 7.30 | 2.60 | 1.57 | 100.0% | 17.5% | 1.8% | 0.73 | 2.70 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | DET | 7 | 0.00 | 1.17 | 0.57 | 100.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.33 |
| Smyly | DET | BOS | 48.1 | 4.10 | 3.88 | 1.39 | 37.5% | 21.8% | 9.2% | 1.49 | 0.85 |
| Hamels | PHI | CIN | 51.2 | 4.01 | 3.57 | 1.33 | 50.0% | 23.7% | 8.7% | 0.70 | 1.17 |
| Cueto | CIN | PHI | 91 | 1.68 | 2.84 | 0.76 | 91.7% | 26.7% | 6.1% | 0.69 | 1.55 |
| Young | SEA | TBR | 63.1 | 3.27 | 5.90 | 1.13 | 50.0% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 1.42 | 0.43 |
| Bedard | TBR | SEA | 46.1 | 4.27 | 4.93 | 1.50 | 22.2% | 16.2% | 10.5% | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Bauer | CLE | TEX | 22.1 | 3.63 | 2.96 | 1.36 | 75.0% | 30.5% | 9.5% | 1.61 | 1.00 |
| Darvish | TEX | CLE | 69.1 | 2.08 | 2.89 | 1.09 | 70.0% | 29.5% | 7.5% | 0.39 | 0.72 |
| Whitley | NYY | KCR | 19 | 2.37 | 3.49 | 1.26 | 18.3% | 3.7% | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | NYY | 78.2 | 4.00 | 4.73 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 11.8% | 5.8% | 1.49 | 1.07 |
| Keuchel | HOU | MIN | 76.2 | 2.70 | 2.64 | 1.02 | 63.6% | 21.5% | 5.0% | 0.47 | 3.29 |
| Hughes | MIN | HOU | 69.1 | 3.12 | 3.56 | 1.13 | 54.5% | 19.9% | 2.9% | 0.52 | 0.76 |
| Ryu | LAD | COL | 58.1 | 3.09 | 3.35 | 1.22 | 60.0% | 20.8% | 4.9% | 0.31 | 1.50 |
| Butler | COL | LAD | |||||||||
| Teheran | ATL | ARI | 83.2 | 1.83 | 3.76 | 0.94 | 83.3% | 20.3% | 6.2% | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| McCarthy | ARI | ATL | 72.2 | 5.20 | 2.98 | 1.33 | 33.3% | 20.5% | 4.2% | 1.36 | 2.36 |
| Rienzo | CWS | LAA | 44.1 | 4.26 | 4.38 | 1.41 | 37.5% | 18.1% | 10.1% | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Weaver | LAA | CWS | 78.1 | 3.33 | 4.25 | 1.13 | 50.0% | 18.0% | 7.3% | 1.15 | 0.75 |
| Roark | WAS | SDP | 69.1 | 3.25 | 3.93 | 1.13 | 54.5% | 17.8% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 1.30 |
| Ross | SDP | WAS | 75.2 | 2.85 | 3.37 | 1.29 | 58.3% | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.71 | 2.59 |
| Niese | NYM | SFG | 70.1 | 2.69 | 3.94 | 1.17 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 0.64 | 1.49 | |
| Cain | SFG | NYM | 46.2 | 3.66 | 3.99 | 1.23 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 8.7% | 1.35 | 1.20 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Cole Hamels PHI (at CIN) – The results aren’t sexy – 4.01 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 1-3 record, but everything else in Hamels’ profile suggests that he’s not only fine, but poised for a surge. He’s gone exactly seven in each of his last five outings with a 2.57 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 3.2 K:BB ratio in 35 IP. He’s allowed 10 ER during that stretch after allowing 11 ER in his second and third starts of the season. He gets the top spot over these next two guys because he’s going to be cheaper yet he could deliver just as big of an outing.
Johnny Cueto CIN (v. PHI) – Cueto bounced back from a couple of shaky starts with 7.3 scoreless IP in Arizona – his third straight road game. He’s done his best work at home and gets a weak Phillies team to feast on there to try and improve his 1.31 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 5.8 K:BB ratio at Great American Ballpark. He still costs an arm and two legs, but he’s delivered in virtually every start.
Yu Darvish TEX (v. CLE) – He’s down here just because he costs so much (and he’s definitely worth it) and he actually does have a formidable matchup with Cleveland coming to town. I have no doubt that he can handle them, but we’re always looking for value and the other two are just better values from a price-to-production standpoint, especially since both have markedly better matchups, too. Darvish has no-hit ability and double-digit K potential every single time out.
Phil Hughes MIN (v. HOU) – Hughes allowed 12 ER in his first three starts, but he’s allowed just 12 ER in his last eight since then with an excellent 13.0 K:BB ratio in 54.3 IP. The Astros have been better since the arrival of George Springer, but they can still be shut down by better arms which Hughes has proven to be now that he’s out of Yankee Stadium.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at PIT) – Lohse is quietly having a great year and dropped his ERA to 2.60 with a shutout against the Cubs his last time out. His strikeouts are up with a career-high 19.7% strikeout rate while his walk rate is also tracking at a career-best mark of 3.9%. He’s already handled the Pirates twice this year, too.
Tanner Roark WAS (at SD) – Roark has been impressive as he wrested that fifth starter’s job from Taylor Jordan as they battled while the Nats waited for Doug Fister to return. He’s got five straight quality starts in a row and though he hasn’t really missed many bats during that stretch (15% K rate), the Padres are a nice prescription for that. He’ll be a popular pick because he’s facing the Padres and in Petco.
Tyson Ross SD (v. WAS) – Ross has been untouchable at home with a 1.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 3.7 K:BB ratio so even though he gets a surging Nationals offense, I still like him here. His walk rate is 7.4% at home compared to 11.1% on the road as he’ll challenge hitters more often with the spacious park protecting him.
Jon Niese NYM (at SF) – The Giants offense has been their strength this year, but not against lefties. They are 18th in wOBA against them on the season and 22nd over the last month. Meanwhile, Niese has just been great this year with 3 or fewer ER in each of his 11 starts this year. The strikeouts are up and the walks are down and even though his groundball rate is down a bit this year, he’s still got a very healthy 1.5 GB/FB ratio.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Brandon McCarthy ARI (v. ATL) – He’s been a total boom or bust pick, but that’s why you get the discount. He’s allowed 5+ ER in six of his 12 starts, but 2 or fewer in five of them, too. His velocity is way up which has yielded a nice 20.5% strikeout rate – easily a career-best mark. The Braves love striking out – OK, maybe they don’t love it, but they do it often enough to make you think they love it – and they have a .280 wOBA against righties this year (baseball’s third-worst mark) making this a great matchup for McCarthy.
Marcus Stroman TOR (v. STL) – Stroman’s ERA was tarnished by a pair of awful relief outings during which he allowed 8 ER in 3 IP of work, but he was great in his first MLB start going 6 IP/1 ER against the Royals with 6 Ks. He has a 10/1 K:BB ratio in his 12.3 MLB IP, too. While the Cards have been better of late, I like Stroman as a value play because the Jays offense is good enough to net him a win even in a mediocre outing, something like 6 IP/4 ER.
Erik Bedard TB (v. SEA) – Bedard was on a great run before falling off with 10 ER in his last two outings, but that was in Toronto and Boston making it somewhat excusable. I never would’ve recommended him in either venue so it’s not like anyone should’ve been burned by those two duds. He gets a Seattle team that is surging in the standings, but they do their best work against righties with just a .288 wOBA against lefties this year – fifth-worst in the league. Bedard seems to max out with six innings, but he’s so cheap that even five strong innings is easily a positive value.
Rubby de la Rosa BOS (at DET) – DLR could be a huge add for the Red Sox as they struggle to figure out the backend of their rotation. The former blue-chip prospect returned from injury with seven shutout innings against the Rays and catches the Tigers in a trough. After a six game winning streak in Baltimore and Boston, the Tigers have gone in the tank going 4-12 in their last 16 with just 3.5 runs per game including just seven runs in their last four games. Some sites will have DLR’s price inflated based on his one excellent start, but most will still have him priced to buy.
Chase Whitley NYY (at KC) – Whitley is kinda Bedard-esque thus far in that he hasn’t really gone deep in any of his starts, but the work in his shortened starts has been impressive with a 2.37 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 15/3 K:BB ratio in 19 IP. The Royals certainly aren’t scaring anyone offensively right now giving Whitley a great opportunity to stay hot.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Lance Lynn STL (at TOR)
- Tommy Milone OAK (at BAL)
- Wei-Yin Chen BAL (v. OAK)
- Brandon Cumpton PIT (v. MIL)
- Jeremy Guthrie KC (v. NYY)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lohse | 0.318 | 3.76 | 0.278 | 2.64 | 0.249 | 0.694 | 1.000 | 2.60 | 0.158 | 100.00 | 67.4% |
| Cumpton | 0.314 | 4.76 | 0.273 | 3.64 | 0.257 | 0.713 | 1.480 | 6.85 | 0.078 | 88.25 | 66.3% |
| Milone | 0.342 | 5.02 | 0.312 | 3.77 | 0.252 | 0.702 | 1.250 | 3.60 | 0.078 | 92.80 | 63.0% |
| Chen | 0.330 | 3.99 | 0.336 | 4.20 | 0.242 | 0.728 | 1.370 | 4.26 | 0.129 | 96.64 | 65.3% |
| Lynn | 0.337 | 4.82 | 0.289 | 3.20 | 0.267 | 0.788 | 1.370 | 3.48 | 0.113 | 103.75 | 62.8% |
| Stroman | 0.448 | 9.95 | 0.282 | 4.50 | 0.260 | 0.688 | 1.540 | 7.30 | 0.158 | 37.17 | 65.0% |
| De La Rosa | 0.262 | 1.17 | 0.355 | 5.06 | 0.274 | 0.757 | 0.570 | 0.00 | 0.333 | 105.00 | 68.6% |
| Smyly | 0.207 | 1.89 | 0.343 | 3.81 | 0.247 | 0.714 | 1.390 | 4.10 | 0.126 | 81.73 | 63.3% |
| Hamels | 0.312 | 5.02 | 0.309 | 3.34 | 0.229 | 0.658 | 1.320 | 4.01 | 0.151 | 103.50 | 64.5% |
| Cueto | 0.224 | 1.67 | 0.246 | 2.51 | 0.232 | 0.647 | 0.760 | 1.68 | 0.206 | 108.33 | 64.3% |
| Young | 0.287 | 2.18 | 0.306 | 4.60 | 0.242 | 0.678 | 1.120 | 3.27 | 0.02 | 89.91 | 61.4% |
| Bedard | 0.368 | 4.93 | 0.325 | 4.40 | 0.247 | 0.639 | 1.490 | 4.27 | 0.057 | 86.10 | 61.7% |
| Bauer | 0.348 | 3.45 | 0.358 | 5.09 | 0.259 | 0.691 | 1.340 | 3.63 | 0.211 | 99.75 | 65.2% |
| Darvish | 0.290 | 2.87 | 0.244 | 2.38 | 0.264 | 0.755 | 1.080 | 2.08 | 0.221 | 106.20 | 63.3% |
| Whitley | 0.342 | 3.12 | 0.274 | 1.80 | 0.256 | 0.659 | 1.260 | 2.37 | 0.146 | 79.75 | 65.2% |
| Guthrie | 0.383 | 4.60 | 0.280 | 3.42 | 0.250 | 0.696 | 1.250 | 4.00 | 0.061 | 103.25 | 65.1% |
| Keuchel | 0.312 | 4.12 | 0.336 | 4.45 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.020 | 2.70 | 0.164 | 101.82 | 63.4% |
| Hughes | 0.332 | 4.18 | 0.345 | 4.98 | 0.225 | 0.674 | 1.120 | 3.12 | 0.171 | 96.18 | 72.1% |
| Ryu | 0.329 | 3.55 | 0.279 | 2.87 | 0.297 | 0.828 | 1.220 | 3.09 | 0.159 | 94.30 | 66.0% |
| Butler | 0.269 | 0.764 | |||||||||
| Teheran | 0.317 | 3.60 | 0.270 | 2.12 | 0.249 | 0.679 | 0.930 | 1.83 | 0.142 | 98.58 | 65.7% |
| McCarthy | 0.331 | 4.36 | 0.346 | 5.22 | 0.229 | 0.636 | 1.320 | 5.20 | 0.162 | 89.83 | 67.9% |
| Rienzo | 0.337 | 4.57 | 0.346 | 4.62 | 0.252 | 0.732 | 1.400 | 4.26 | 0.08 | 91.44 | 60.6% |
| Weaver | 0.294 | 3.41 | 0.294 | 3.16 | 0.259 | 0.722 | 1.120 | 3.33 | 0.108 | 96.92 | 61.1% |
| Roark | 0.304 | 3.91 | 0.227 | 1.45 | 0.225 | 0.634 | 1.130 | 3.25 | 0.114 | 94.82 | 64.0% |
| Ross | 0.293 | 3.38 | 0.286 | 2.77 | 0.237 | 0.673 | 1.280 | 2.85 | 0.13 | 98.58 | 61.5% |
| Niese | 0.274 | 3.12 | 0.326 | 3.49 | 0.244 | 0.717 | 1.170 | 2.69 | 0.108 | 97.64 | 63.6% |
| Cain | 0.285 | 3.81 | 0.322 | 4.11 | 0.226 | 0.646 | 1.220 | 3.66 | 0.113 | 92.38 | 62.8% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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