Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 17th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-17 19:18:53

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 17th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

James Shields, KC (at OAK) – In the last calendar month, the A’s are hitting .228 (28th in MLB) with a 672 OPS (26th) so don’t let their second place standing in runs scored deceive you as they haven’t quite been that fearsome offense for a while now. Shields, meanwhile, has quietly been the same superstar ace he was with Tampa Bay as the fears that he might regress (including some such fears from yours truly) a bit with regards to his home park and team defense have been assuaged early on. His rates are dead even with last year as he has the same exact 23.6% strikeout rate and has moved just 0.1% higher on his walk rate at 6.2%. I’m just surprised he isn’t getting much attention for transitioning so brilliantly.

Cliff Lee, PHI (v. CIN) – Lee has leaned on his fastball (whether four-seamers or sinkers) 58% of the time en route to a 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. His has been the third-best heater among lefties with a 578 OPS-allowed for pitchers with 100+ plate appearances ending on heaters. The league average for lefties is a 748 OPS and Lee trails only Mike Minor (515) and Jon Lester (568). The Reds hold their own against southpaws with a 747 OPS against them (15th in MLB) despite several of their stars (Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce) batting from the left. I still favor Lee here.

Chris Sale, CWS (at LAA) – The Angels can’t believe they already have to face Sale again in less than a week. He cut them up for a one-hit shutout on Sunday night in Chicago, but it will be 20-25 degrees warmer in LA tonight. The Angels are 28th in the league against lefties with a 640 OPS, though Sale has played a big role in that as they were 19th with a 709 heading into that Sunday night affair. This is a good example of how our dataset is still on the small side and can fluctuate wildly in a week’s time. Of course, we don’t really need too much compelling data to understand that Sale is a stud and worthy of starting against these Angels as they work through issues for what was supposed to be the strength of the team.

Clay Buchholz, BOS (at MIN) – The Twins have done the best work against Buchholz this season so far getting to him for four runs in six innings earlier this month (May 6th), but he responded with eight strong innings allowing just two runs against the Blue Jays in his next start. Don’t sleep on these Twins as a total cupcake, though. They are hanging around .500 and their work against righties has been about league average as they have a 699 OPS, good for 16th in the league. I definitely thought they’d be far worse at the dish with only Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, and Justin Morneau really hitting, but they’ve gotten contributions from three or four others that have been league average or better.

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at SD) – Gonzalez has been just as unhittable as he was last year (6.6 H/9 compared to last year’s 6.7), but his walks have shot back up from 9.3% to 11.2% while his left on base rate has dropped four percentage points to 70%. The biggest issue has been that his 5.8% HR/FB rate has jumped up to 12.8% so far this year. In short, his skills haven’t changed significantly despite what the results suggest. In fact, his 3.49 SIERA from 2012 is only up to 3.84 this year which isn’t that crazy. Whereas he was great at preventing homers (and probably had some good fortune as well), he’s been faltered a bit (while likely having a bit of misfortune thrown in) this year with the mistakes early on. I still trust him and I really like his chances for a big start in San Diego.

Trevor Cahill, ARI (at MIA) – He doesn’t quite get the benefit of most who go into Miami as he is an elite groundball pitcher, but it’s nice to know that 28% of his batted balls that are airborne are less likely to leave the yard in that spacious yard. Take a strong arm and square them off with this putrid Marlins club and you’ve got someone worth starting.

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. TOR) – The Jays have their work cut out for them tonight as they face Kuroda and his devastating splitter-slider combination that has yielded a pathetic 298 OPS to opponents in 90 PA (out the 203 that Kuroda’s had all year). The Jays have a 444 OPS against the pitches, good for 26th in the league, in 122 PA of their own. Of course, part of that is Kuroda himself who shut them down in a pair of back-to-back starts in late-April. He allowed just four runs in 13.3 innings while striking out 10 and walking two.

BEST THE REST:

Madison Bumgarner, SF (at COL) – Of course the day I mention that Coors hasn’t been the minefield of last year, it relinquishes 14 runs and both starters get destroyed (yielding all 14). MadBum is throwing better than either teammate Matt Cain or Cain’s opponent Jhoulys Chacin so I’m not necessarily going to run away from him in Coors, especially if there is a built in discount for the venue/opponent.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at ATL) – Where’d our strikeouts go, Ryu? After mowing down 46 batters in six starts during April, he has just five punch outs in his two May starts, but that doesn’t they’ve disappeared for good. Not to mention that the Braves are the perfect remedy for someone in need of a strikeout boost. With a team that strikes out as frequently as Atlanta, they could be in for a long night right out of the gate is Ryu’s slider is on. He has allowed .152 AVG and 364 OPS with the pitch while striking out 15 of his 51 batters with it, too.

Kevin Slowey, MIA (v. ARI) – Slowey hit his first big roadblock of the season when the Dodgers popped him for five runs in 4.7 innings as he allowed 11 hits and three walks. It’s easy with these guys to think that once they hit a bump, the magic is done and all of their unexpected success to that point was a fluke, but that’s silly. Slowey was never going to be a sub-2.00 ERA guy. He’s probably not even a sub-3.00 ERA guy so there will be bumps along the way, but his flyball tendencies are made for his home park and I like him in that venue even against a solid D’Backs lineup.

Paul Maholm, ATL (v. LAD) – This is another guy who enjoyed a hot start early and then has since been knocked around in a pair of starts balancing out his ERA. His key to success is location so any night that his command is even off slightly will end up being a tough one for him. He’s had those tough nights in both Detroit and San Francisco, but he’s had six great nights with the command, too. He is still a viable arm who can deliver some great value in the right spot.

Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. SF) – DLR has been excellent this year and he’s actually riding a 13-inning scoreless streak yet his modest component stats (1.7 K/BB) leave me a bit nervous with him. He has four scoreless appearances this season going at least six innings in all four. The first two were also back-to-back in mid-April. Despite being a bit nervous about his K/BB ratio, I’m heartened by the fact that he’s facing the leagues’ 27th ranked team against lefties (652 OPS). There could be some nice value here, especially since there will be a Coors discount (where his ERA is hilariously 0.00 in 12 IP).

USE CAUTION:

Jaime Garcia, STL (v. MIL) – When a pitcher’s ERA is 2.88, but he still has a 1.30 WHIP you know that he has probably been working his way out of several jams. His career-best 76% left of base rate also confirms this issue. In fact, in his two starts against the Brewers he has scattered 15 hits and three walks in his 15 innings while holding them to just a single run. He has given up at least six hits in six of his eight outings. Teams will eventually cash in some of those hits leading to outings like his five run affair against the Rockies his last time out.

Tony Cingrani, CIN (at PHI) – Cingrani has returned to earth lately allowing six runs in his 10 May innings thanks in large part to four home runs. As the book on him gets thicker, his degree of difficulty rises significantly. We are still dealing with such tiny samples of work from him that any full scale analysis off of the numbers becomes too dangerous to be useful, but he is likely pitching for his job with Johnny Cueto on the comeback trail. That kind of pressure can bring out the best in guys or it can lead to overthinking and trying too hard, both deadly for a pitcher. I loved seeing Cingrani get out to that hot start, but be careful here going forward.

C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. CWS) – He is giving up far too many base runners to feel comfortable with even against a weak opponent like the White Sox. His 1.54 WHIP is just screaming for a mid-to-high 4.00s ERA to accompany it sooner than later. The problem is that even though he’s managed a 3.88 ERA, he puts so many base runners on that he mitigates his point totals in most scoring formats.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

For some guys who you might normally expect to make at least the “Caution” section, I’ll include a note outlining why I bypassed them for the section.

Brandon Maurer, SEA (at CLE) – Don’t mess with the Indians. Maurer has been solid since his first two horrendous starts (3.54 ERA in 28 IP), but the Indians are a tough offense and even during his nice run, he’s allowing 1.6 HR/9 and that’s a recipe for trouble.

Jeremy Hellickson, TB (at BAL) – I want to see him throw at least a pair of back-to-back strong starts before messing with him again. What’s weird is that his strikeouts are way up and that was usually the thing we didn’t get from him, but I’d he give them back and start being good again.

Jason Hammel, BAL (v. TB) – Hammel is right in that Hellickson/Parker mold where I want to see more before I’ll be encouraged enough to trust him, especially on a full slate day with tons of options. Plus the Rays have been league-average against righties even though the perception is that they can’t hit at all.

Jarrod Parker, OAK (v. KC) – Like Hellickson, the upside is too scant to play with this fire right now. He did throw a quality start in his last outing against Seattle so let’s see if he can build on that tonight against KC.

• Nick Tepesch, TEX
• Jeanmar Gomez, PIT
• Vance Worley, MIN
• Mark Buehrle, TOR
• Rick Porcello, DET
• Wily Peralta, MIL
• Burch Smith, SD
• Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE
• Jordan Lyles, HOU

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PARK FACTORS: May 17th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 17th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.