Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 1st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumpton | PIT | BAL | 7 | 2.57 | 3.72 | 0.71 | 100.0% | 17.9% | 3.6% | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Tillman | BAL | PIT | 32 | 3.38 | 3.97 | 1.25 | 40.0% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.41 | 0.77 |
| Patterson | LAD | MIN | |||||||||
| Johnson | MIN | LAD | |||||||||
| Elias | SEA | NYY | 28 | 3.54 | 4.55 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 18.1% | 12.1% | 0.64 | 1.70 |
| Kuroda | NYY | SEA | 29 | 5.28 | 4.23 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 14.4% | 4.8% | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| Santana | ATL | MIA | 27.2 | 1.95 | 2.40 | 0.99 | 75.0% | 29.3% | 4.7% | 0.33 | 1.88 |
| Alvarez | MIA | ATL | 29.2 | 2.73 | 3.93 | 1.44 | 40.0% | 14.2% | 7.1% | 0.30 | 2.79 |
| Estrada | MIL | CIN | 31.1 | 2.87 | 3.36 | 0.96 | 40.0% | 23.5% | 5.0% | 1.44 | 0.71 |
| Bailey | CIN | MIL | 26.1 | 6.15 | 3.19 | 1.80 | 20.0% | 23.8% | 6.6% | 2.39 | 1.67 |
| Archer | TBR | BOS | 30.2 | 4.11 | 3.22 | 1.29 | 19.7% | 3.9% | 0.29 | 1.92 | |
| Doubront | BOS | TBR | 24 | 6.00 | 4.82 | 1.71 | 13.9% | 9.6% | 1.13 | 1.33 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | KCR | 33.1 | 2.16 | 4.34 | 1.24 | 60.0% | 14.0% | 5.9% | 0.27 | 1.43 |
| Guthrie | KCR | TOR | 32 | 4.22 | 4.70 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 1.41 | 1.02 |
| Colon | NYM | COL | 32 | 4.50 | 3.54 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 19.0% | 2.2% | 1.69 | 0.93 |
| Nicasio | COL | NYM | 27.1 | 5.27 | 3.61 | 1.48 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 5.8% | 1.65 | 1.39 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Chris Tillman, BAL (v. PIT) – Tillman’s last outing is a perfect microcosm of his downside. He allowed seven runs in 5.7 IP thanks in large part to three homers. He still fanned seven and actually pulled a win, salvaging his night. The Pirates don’t present nearly the same challenge as the Blue Jays. They have some home run pop, but if Tillman avoids mistakes to Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen, he should be able to emulate something like his start in Detroit or his first effort against Toronto (both 8 IP gems).
Ervin Santana, ATL (at MIA) – I realize that Atlanta’s trip to Miami has been the Magical Mystery Regression Tour for their starters with Alex Wood and Aaron Harang getting popped. However unlike that pair, Santana’s FIP (1.89) is actually lower than his ERA (1.95). His skills have been fantastic across the board and his sub-2.00 ERA is about as real as one gets assuming he continues to pitch like this. The Marlins have a .278 wOBA against righty sliders with a league-high 44% strikeout rate.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. SEA) – Kuroda hasn’t been sharp thus far. His command has been wonky and he hasn’t really gone deep into games, topping out at 6.3 IP and only a max of 99 pitches in any single outing. And yet the M’s might be just the remedy to get him back on track. Dating back to the start of last year, the Mariners have a .276 wOBA against right-handed splitters including a 37.5% strikeout rate – 7th highest in baseball. As the price drops on the Yankee righty, now looks like the time to pounce.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Marco Estrada, MIL (at CIN) – The main concern for Estrada is still present despite an impressive 2.87 ERA through 31.3 IP. He has a 1.44 HR/9 rate, but four of the five have been solo shots as he allows very little damage apart from the homers. He has a 6.9 H/9 and five percent walk rate (he’s allowed just six compared to the five homers) yielding a 0.96 WHIP. The Reds have just 22 HRs on the year (17th in MLB) so if he can avoid the power landmines in the lineup, it’s not a team deep with big pop.
Homer Bailey, CIN (v. MIL) – The weather postponement on Monday pushed Bailey from the Cubs series to this one. Ouch. When it rains, it pours. Bailey hasn’t been any good so far this season except his start against the Cubs earlier, but his strikeout and walk are virtually identical to last year’s (3.69 K/BB in 2013; 3.63 so far this season) and his swinging strike rate has actually ticked up from 10.7% to 10.9% as has his groundball rate, jumping from 46.1% to 48.2% in 26.3 IP. He has a bananas .416 BABIP and 29.2% HR/FB rate. Neither of those will continue. It’s a risky play in daily to bet on when the comeback will start, but the price has become too appealing to pass up.
Juan Nicasio, COL (v. NYM) – Nicasio’s 5.27 ERA is right in line with his 5.28 and 5.14 marks over the previous two seasons, but this is a different version. His stuff is far more electric as we can see via his 20% strikeout and 11.2% swinging strike rates. He’s also walking batters at a 5.8% rate, the lowest of his career. A sky-high .337 BABIP and 18% HR/FB rate have masked the growth in his base skills. The atrocious Mets lineup is a great chance for Nicasio to repair his ERA after back-to-back duds.
Henderson Alvarez, MIA (v. ATL) – I’m starting to buy in a bit here. Now this is more of a price-to-production ratio endorsement than one based on raw skills. He still doesn’t miss enough bats (14.2% K rate) and allows too many hits (10 H/9 rate) to be a 2.73 ERA kind of guy. But his severe groundball rate has done a fantastic job limiting home runs which helps him minimize the damage normally associated with his kind of hit rate. While never being a strikeout threat, Alvarez could rack up a reasonable four or five in his six innings of work against a Braves team that is fanning at a 24.1% clip – fourth-worst in baseball.
USE CAUTION:
Bartolo Colon, NYM (at COL) – Bounced back from his homer-fest in LA with a pair of sharp 7 IP outings (allowing 3 and 1 ER, respectively) during which he also surged in strikeouts with 14 against just one walk. That massacre in LA certainly ended your chances of success in any tourney where you had him, but he’s been so good over the last two seasons-plus that you have to feel confident using him in just about any matchup… except this one! The rain postponement yesterday really pushed Colon from a usable asset (at Philly) to a complete stay (at Colorado).
Jake Peavy, BOS (v. TB) – After a huge outing in Toronto, Peavy pushed his ERA down to 2.87 in his first 31.3 IP. He’s also striking out a batter per inning with 32, but that’s about the only one of his component numbers that is truly favorable. He’s walking 12% of the batters he’s faced and allowed HRs at a 1.44 per game clip. The Rays are toting the fifth-best wOBA against righties and their main route to that success has been an 11% BB rate (third in the league). Be careful here.
Kris Johnson, MIN (v. LAD) – The 29-year old journeyman is making a spot start as part of a doubleheader, but he might be able to pull some Scott Carroll-esque magic on the Dodgers. He’s the standard pitch-to-contact, groundball-heavy guy the Twins have rolled out in droves year-after-year. It’s actually a surprise that they didn’t find a way to get him sooner, first from Boston and then last year from Pittsburgh when he was in their minor league systems. The Dodgers have been garbage against lefties (.264 wOBA – 29th) with a 26.1% strikeout rate. Gamble a bit with Johnson at the sites where he is available.
Roenis Elias, SEA (at NYY) – I’ve been cautious throughout and I remain so even with a 3.54 ERA through five starts. He’s been far from special in any single outing let alone on the composite and we’ve seen some erosion in his last couple of outings. He’s gone more than 5.7 IP just once and the Yanks excel against lefties. Pass.
Brandon Cumpton, PIT (at BAL) – The Pirates might have something with Cumpton – at least something useful enough for the backend of their rotation, especially with Ray Searage handling him. But with a fourth or fifth starter-type, you will see outings like his season debut against Cincy (7 IP/2 ER) every once in a while, but they will definitely be the exception. I can’t advocate such an unknown in Baltimore.
Mark Buehrle, TOR (at KC) – Yeah, I meeeaaannnn, we knew it was coming.
Cesar Ramos, TB (at BOS) – The RP-to-SP conversion actually has a viable three-pitch mix, but his fastball is so poor that he can’t get into pitcher’s counts to showcase his slider and changeup enough. His awful 1.0 K/BB only further ensures my avoidance of Ramos.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. TOR)
Red Patterson, LAD (at MIN)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumpton | 0.281 | 3.38 | 0.216 | 1.29 | 0.279 | 0.732 | 0.211 | 3.37 | 0.167 | 98.00 | 69.4% |
| Tillman | 0.328 | 4.02 | 0.306 | 3.26 | 0.222 | 0.644 | 0.271 | 4.37 | 0.242 | 107.00 | 64.1% |
| Patterson | 0.266 | 0.789 | |||||||||
| Johnson | 0.296 | 4.50 | 0.366 | 7.11 | 0.208 | 0.604 | |||||
| Elias | 0.297 | 4.05 | 0.337 | 3.38 | 0.297 | 0.810 | 0.282 | 4.12 | 0.238 | 96.40 | 61.4% |
| Kuroda | 0.329 | 4.12 | 0.276 | 2.91 | 0.211 | 0.624 | 0.309 | 4.26 | 0.286 | 94.00 | 61.5% |
| Santana | 0.298 | 2.86 | 0.286 | 3.46 | 0.269 | 0.751 | 0.304 | 1.86 | 0.218 | 96.25 | 66.8% |
| Alvarez | 0.311 | 3.56 | 0.271 | 3.23 | 0.238 | 0.680 | 0.323 | 3.22 | 0.28 | 83.20 | 65.1% |
| Estrada | 0.271 | 3.11 | 0.311 | 4.26 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.241 | 4.04 | 0.214 | 100.00 | 63.8% |
| Bailey | 0.353 | 4.20 | 0.271 | 3.51 | 0.266 | 0.742 | 0.416 | 5.37 | 0.345 | 97.20 | 63.8% |
| Archer | 0.324 | 3.95 | 0.251 | 2.64 | 0.245 | 0.713 | 0.344 | 2.37 | 0.279 | 95.80 | 65.3% |
| Doubront | 0.310 | 3.68 | 0.338 | 4.86 | 0.223 | 0.617 | 0.321 | 4.88 | 0.291 | 83.20 | 60.1% |
| Buehrle | 0.328 | 4.53 | 0.329 | 3.71 | 0.231 | 0.586 | 0.302 | 3.24 | 0.262 | 97.60 | 61.7% |
| Guthrie | 0.390 | 4.63 | 0.281 | 3.48 | 0.257 | 0.747 | 0.272 | 5.09 | 0.264 | 103.60 | 65.6% |
| Colon | 0.306 | 3.16 | 0.288 | 2.69 | 0.288 | 0.813 | 0.314 | 4.18 | 0.284 | 100.00 | 68.4% |
| Nicasio | 0.347 | 5.91 | 0.359 | 4.53 | 0.215 | 0.607 | 0.337 | 4.59 | 0.295 | 94.80 | 64.8% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window