Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 22nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomlin | CLE | BAL | 18.2 | 2.89 | 4.57 | 0.93 | 11.0% | 2.7% | 1.45 | 1.00 | |
| Chen | BAL | CLE | 46.1 | 3.69 | 3.90 | 1.45 | 37.5% | 16.4% | 5.0% | 0.58 | 1.44 |
| Treinen | WAS | PIT | 11.2 | 0.77 | 2.82 | 1.79 | 16.7% | 3.7% | 0.00 | 3.43 | |
| Volquez | PIT | WAS | 49.2 | 4.71 | 4.37 | 1.18 | 37.5% | 13.7% | 6.4% | 1.63 | 1.42 |
| Greinke | LAD | NYM | 53.1 | 2.03 | 2.67 | 1.11 | 66.7% | 28.2% | 5.6% | 1.18 | 1.43 |
| Niese | NYM | LAD | 49.2 | 2.54 | 3.66 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 18.6% | 5.9% | 0.54 | 1.64 |
| Garza | MIL | ATL | 54 | 4.83 | 4.00 | 1.35 | 22.2% | 19.4% | 8.0% | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Harang | ATL | MIL | 54.1 | 2.98 | 3.19 | 1.16 | 88.9% | 26.6% | 7.7% | 0.33 | 0.90 |
| Miley | ARI | STL | 62 | 4.94 | 3.99 | 1.26 | 30.0% | 19.1% | 8.2% | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Lynn | STL | ARI | 54 | 3.67 | 3.59 | 1.31 | 44.4% | 22.6% | 8.1% | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| Phelps | NYY | CWS | 27 | 3.33 | 4.17 | 1.48 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Sale | CWS | NYY | 27.1 | 2.30 | 2.88 | 0.85 | 50.0% | 27.9% | 6.7% | 0.33 | 1.25 |
| Cosart | HOU | SEA | 49 | 4.41 | 4.62 | 1.39 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 0.92 | 1.88 | |
| Elias | SEA | HOU | 53.1 | 3.71 | 3.85 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 20.6% | 9.4% | 1.01 | 1.71 |
| Arrieta | CHC | SDP | 13.1 | 2.70 | 4.24 | 1.91 | 44.4% | 20.6% | 12.7% | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Stults | SDP | CHC | 46 | 4.50 | 4.72 | 1.57 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 1.57 | 1.15 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Zack Greinke LAD (at NYM) – The only thing to slow him down so far this season has been a rain delay that left him with just 3 IP in Washington. Otherwise, he’s been amazing in every other start. Even the one where he only went 5.3 IP in Arizona, he still got a win and eight strikeouts. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER since July 25th – a span of 21 starts during which he has a 1.76 ERA in 133 innings. He’s an unquestioned ace.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (v. CLE) – Chen gets a prime matchup here against a Cleveland team that ranks dead last against lefties this year with a meager .281 wOBA. After a pair of bumpy outings to open the season, Chen has reeled six solid ones in a row netting himself a 2.78 ERA in 35.7 IP with a 2.5 K/BB ratio. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but he can pop five or six in an outing to boost his value. Additionally, he’s sharply improved his biggest problem area – home runs. He has a career-best 44.5% groundball rate after sitting at 37% or lower in his first two MLB seasons. Not only does he have some promising numbers and a nice matchup, but he’s also cheap at most sites.
Aaron Harang ATL (v. MIL) – At some point we have to start taking this seriously. The bias against Harang is no doubt related to his 5.40 ERA a year ago, but his numbers more than support his 2.98 ERA. In fact, he has a 2.36 FIP thanks to his excellent strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Milwaukee’s excellent record isn’t tied to hitting. While they have a few big bats (Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and Jonathan LuCroy), the rest of their lineup has been below average, especially with Aramis Ramirez out and both Khris Davis and Jean Segura flailing.
Jon Niese NYM (v. LAD) – He was a bit wobbly last time out (4 IP/3 ER, but 5 R total), but it only pushed his ERA to 2.54 giving you an idea of how good he’s been this year. The Dodgers were below league average against lefties last year and it’s been even worse this year giving them a .301 wOBA since the start of 2013 – good for 24th in the league. Niese is just 2-3 thanks to poor run support and he isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but his price at most outlets accommodates for those issues.
SOLID BUYS:
Chris Sale CWS (v. NYY) – I don’t how conservatively the White Sox will handle him after missing over a month. If they hold him back a bit, even five excellent innings won’t really deliver on his big price tag. If the shackles are off, he’s obviously capable of a brilliant effort with double-digit Ks. There is just too much uncertainty to tab him as a best buy today. I’m going to wait-and-see, and likely look to use him next time around.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Wade Miley ARI (at STL) – There’s a little too much inconsistency to tab Miley as a “Best Buy”, but the Cardinals have struggled against lefties dating back to the start of 2013 so the prime matchup and enticing price tag give Miley plenty of intrigue today. He often goes deep into games, too, going fewer than six innings just three times this year. He doesn’t consistently run up big strikeout totals, but he has the ability to drop 7-8 Ks in his back pocket.
Jarred Cosart HOU (v. SEA) – Cosart has just a 2.64 ERA in his last five, but the 18/14 K/BB ratio and 1.37 WHIP in those 30.7 IP suggest that the ERA is a bit of a mirage. He’s definitely talented, but he’s also learning on the job which means there will be volatility. The M’s are hitting much better in May, but they still aren’t exactly a force so I think we’ll see some decent Cosart usage tonight, especially at the sites where he is cheapest.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at SD) – Anyone gets a look against the Padres right now, especially in Petco. Arrieta has been thoroughly unspectacular in his three starts so far this year, but it won’t take much for him to earn his meager price tag today. He’s yet to top 82 pitches, thus he’s gone 5.3, 4, and 4 IP in his three starts, but he does have 13 Ks in the 13.3 IP. I usually like more upside in my value plays since the downside is so severe (for example, Miley could realistically go eight strong whereas Arrieta almost certainly will not barring just some insane efficiency), but if you just want a solid five-and-dive with some Ks, he should be get you that.
Eric Stults SD (v. CHC) – He somehow posted 6.7 IP/1 ER effort in Coors Field when the entire daily fantasy community was loaded up with Rockies. You’re unlikely to get very many strikeouts from him, but the bar for him to earn his price isn’t high so if you need a pure value play to go with a Greinke or Sale, he should be adequate.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Lance Lynn STL (v. ARI) – I like Lynn a lot overall, but he’s been inconsistent of late and the strikeouts just haven’t been there during that stretch. He’s got a 4.13 ERA and just a 17/10 K/BB ratio in his last four starts spanning 24 IP. Meanwhile, the D’Backs has been much better in May sitting 10th in wOBA against righties.
Justin Masterson CLE (at BAL) – His major problems against lefties have returned with a vengeance and I just can’t trust him right now.
Edinson Volquez PIT (v. WAS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomlin | 0.255 | 3.00 | 0.270 | 2.08 | 0.268 | 0.704 | 0.200 | 4.63 | 0.211 | 96.67 | 66.9% |
| Chen | 0.333 | 3.80 | 0.334 | 4.06 | 0.212 | 0.612 | 0.348 | 3.14 | 0.298 | 99.75 | 63.9% |
| Treinen | 0.416 | 2.45 | 0.264 | 0.244 | 0.684 | 0.419 | 2.05 | 0.346 | 48.75 | 65.6% | |
| Volquez | 0.367 | 6.09 | 0.330 | 4.99 | 0.237 | 0.679 | 0.237 | 5.21 | 0.238 | 79.33 | 65.8% |
| Greinke | 0.316 | 2.96 | 0.265 | 2.13 | 0.214 | 0.615 | 0.296 | 3.23 | 0.232 | 98.44 | 65.7% |
| Niese | 0.269 | 3.21 | 0.334 | 3.51 | 0.218 | 0.645 | 0.291 | 3.06 | 0.245 | 97.75 | 63.9% |
| Garza | 0.331 | 4.53 | 0.294 | 3.67 | 0.221 | 0.618 | 0.299 | 3.45 | 0.249 | 95.67 | 66.8% |
| Harang | 0.339 | 4.95 | 0.316 | 4.55 | 0.250 | 0.691 | 0.308 | 2.38 | 0.225 | 102.89 | 65.2% |
| Miley | 0.318 | 4.75 | 0.327 | 3.71 | 0.223 | 0.632 | 0.267 | 4.66 | 0.243 | 97.40 | 63.9% |
| Lynn | 0.343 | 5.05 | 0.286 | 3.18 | 0.258 | 0.709 | 0.308 | 3.30 | 0.244 | 104.67 | 63.6% |
| Phelps | 0.322 | 3.73 | 0.350 | 5.62 | 0.267 | 0.755 | 0.299 | 4.56 | 0.248 | 41.58 | 60.9% |
| Sale | 0.161 | 2.10 | 0.304 | 3.24 | 0.288 | 0.776 | 0.227 | 2.31 | 0.167 | 112.75 | 63.4% |
| Cosart | 0.279 | 2.40 | 0.333 | 4.09 | 0.225 | 0.668 | 0.267 | 4.71 | 0.239 | 94.22 | 61.6% |
| Elias | 0.319 | 3.46 | 0.326 | 4.02 | 0.266 | 0.707 | 0.297 | 4.11 | 0.25 | 97.56 | 63.3% |
| Arrieta | 0.310 | 3.68 | 0.338 | 5.32 | 0.217 | 0.609 | 0.405 | 2.93 | 0.309 | 81.67 | 59.2% |
| Stults | 0.253 | 3.52 | 0.351 | 4.19 | 0.262 | 0.747 | 0.329 | 4.95 | 0.322 | 81.89 | 65.8% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window