Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 30th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-30 17:05:56

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 30th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Of course the lowest ranked of yesterday’s “Cream of the Crop” were the only ones to get the job done as we saw several studs and strong matchup plays crumble. Then we saw Eric Stults, Samuel Deduno, Tom Koehler, Joe Saunders, and Luis Mendoza all looked sharp on the “Ignore” list. Thanks, jerkstores!

Doug Fister, DET (at PIT) – As someone who has watched each of Fister’s 10 starts this year, I can anecdotally tell you that he’s deserved a better fate than his 3.65 ERA over 61.7 innings. His sabermetric ERA indicators agree, though with his SIERA at an excellent 3.15. His strikeout rate is down a tick from 20% last year to 19% this year, but his walk rate is down sharply by nearly two percentage points to 3.7% yielding a great 5.0 K/BB ratio (eight in MLB, in fact three Tigers hold the 7-8-9 spots with Max Scherzer ahead and Anibal Sanchez behind him).

There is more good than bad ahead for Fister and it starts with this matchup against the Pirates. They aren’t particularly adept at taking walks (not that he’d allowed ‘em anyway) and they strikeout at the eighth-highest clip in MLB. On a weak slate that is neutered by afternoon games hogging some studs (Felix Hernandez, Jake Peavy, Andrew Cashner, and even Travis Wood who just keeps rolling), Fister stands out. That isn’t meant to diminish him, I’ve rated him highly on nights with a load of good arms going, but he does need the help of a lesser slate and favorable matchup to be the #1 guy.

Mike Minor, ATL (v. TOR) – I’d listen to arguments for Minor as the top guy, too. He’s been awesome this and somewhat quietly as you’d expect more fanfare for a lefty with a 2.47 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 4.4 K/BB ratio in 65.7 innings. But I guess he is basically the old guard at 25 years old when you have Matt Harvey (24), Patrick Corbin (23), and Shelby Miller (22) drawing the headlines.

Though he is facing a top 10 (by OPS) offense in the Jays, they certainly haven’t built their ranking against southpaws on the road with a meager 613 OPS against them (27th in MLB). Their 8.5% season walk rate crumbles nearly in half to 4.6% against left-handers away from the Rogers Centre. I will note that they have the fewest road lefty games in the league with just 13 so our samples are especially small. Of course they are only 19th in OPS against lefties as a whole so it’s definitely a nice matchup for Minor.
Minor’s swinging strike rate has shot up from 7.8% to 10.2% and he’s added four points to his first-pitch strike percentage at 62.7%, both of which are key factors in his success. He’s getting out of obvious fastball counts which has helped him tone down his biggest issue from the past: home runs. His heater yielded 13 long balls a year ago, but just three so far this season (pacing him for about nine). His 2.47 ERA might be a little exaggerated with regards to what his true talent level is, but he’s unquestionably a strong arm who has carried last year’s second half success over and taken another step closer to reaching his ceiling.

BEST OF THE REST:

Ricky Nolasco, MIA (v. TB) – The Marlins’ season has been an unmitigated disaster, but it’s not Nolasco’s fault. He’s done everything he can to build up his trade value pitching at his highest level in five years. The strikeouts are way up, the walks are down a bit, and his stuff has a ton more life which his helping him limit his hits allowed. The Rays have been one of the sweetest swinging teams in May including an 825 OPS against righties (good for second), but the ballpark is just as helpful as any of Nolasco’s skills. An accountant (I’m assuming) named Tom Koehler held them to three runs over eight innings last night, so I like Nolasco to enjoy similar success. My biggest worry – as always with the Marlins – is whether or not their offense can get Nolasco enough support to position him for a win.

R.A. Dickey, TOR (at ATL) – Every time it looks like Dickey is back on track to at least look like the 2011 iteration – if not the Cy Young winner from 2012 – he punches his trusting fantasy owners square in the face again with a disastrous outing to erase the gains. A pounding at the hands of the Orioles as we saw in his last outing is hardly a crime is they are the only team the Rays trail for the top OPS of May, but it’s more about the trust factor and how hard it is to put faith in Dickey even against a hacking team like the Braves. The good news is that the daily outlets have adjusted and marked Dickey’s price down so if you want to take the plunge it won’t cost you nearly as much these days.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (at MIN) – After a brilliant April, Lohse has been just “meh” in May having given up exactly four runs in three of his outings – not great, but not horrible, either. Some, all, or none of it may have been related to his bum elbow that earned him this 10-day reprieve in between starts. I’m going to trust the Brewers regarding his health and assume they wouldn’t throw him out there if the elbow was still a factor, thus I expect more April than May from Lohse.

Interesting (possibly) tidbit about this outing is that he will be facing a former ballclub for the second start in a row as journeys to the place where his career start after a jaunt to St. Louis in his May 19th outing. He just missed pulling off the trifecta and possibly the quadfecta (new word, go with it!), too! The Brewers play the Phillies in two of their next three series, but Lohse gets the middle series against Oakland. And then on June 14-16 they face the Reds in Cincy. Lohse is lined up to pitch in that series.

Jason Vargas, LAA (v. LAD) – As I mentioned when they faced CJ Wilson, the Dodgers hadn’t been hitting against lefties in May. They got to Wilson for six in four innings to boost their numbers, jumping to a league averageish ranking of 17th overall. Vargas has surged in May with a 2.25 ERA in 36 innings across five starts including a shutout of the Orioles. Though he has left Seattle, he still has the same home/road split issue we saw when he was a Mariner. His 4.50 road ERA pales in comparison to his 2.52 at home as he continues to lean on his pitcher-friendly stadiums.

USE CAUTION:

Ted Lilly, LAD (at LAA) – The Angels have been rotten against lefties in May setting up a potential pitcher’s duel at the Big A, but how long will the Dodgers let Lilly go even if he’s doing well? His season-high is 86 pitches in his first outing and 5.3 innings in his third (and latest). I still favor Vargas in this head-to-head because Lilly is still building up whereas Vargas is already humming along. Lilly is a strong bargain play at outlets where you use more than one starter.

Homer Bailey, CIN (v. CLE) / Scott Kazmir, CLE (at CIN) – I expect better than what happened to Bronson Arroyo (5 ER in 5.7 IP), but I’m nervous about Bailey against the sweet-swingin’ Indians. The silver lining is that his teammates get to hit against Kazmir, who has been more miss than hit and the Reds are the sixth-best offense against southpaws. I would never encourage you to bank on a win, but you could get an ugly one out of Bailey with the upside for more, but with tons of risk for an implosion. In fairness to Kaz, when he’s been on, he looks like vintage Kazmir and his 24% strikeout rate on the season is excellent.

Juan Nicasio, COL (v. HOU) – Nicasio has a great chance to set a season-high strikeout total in this outing as several starters have done that against these Astros. His current high is six. Despite a passable 4.38 ERA, there isn’t much like with Nicasio as the skills are modest at best and he has a terrible time getting out righties (.292 AVG, 840 OPS allowed).

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Jonathan Pettibone, PHI* (v. BOS) – He’s posted some great numbers to date despite modest skills including a big win against the Cleveland Indians, but I don’t trust to thwart the 818 OPS of the Red Sox when facing righties. Despite a thin list of options, I think there is better value elsewhere.

• Dan Haren, WAS* (v. BAL) – Like Dickey, Haren shows glimpses of returning to form only to blow a start or two later. There is no sense taking such a big risk against a potent offense like the Orioles.

• Franklin Morales
• Michael Wacha
• Vidal Nuno
• Alex Colome
• Jeremy Guthrie
• Dillon Gee
• Freddy Garcia
• Lucas Harrell
• P.J. Walters

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PARK FACTORS: May 30th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 30th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.